Just a case study that I wanted to share with you guys
like and leave a comment if you enjoy it and find it useful XOXO
first let me introduce you to this chart: BTC.D
keeping it simple, BTC.D or Bitcoin Dominance shows you what percentage of the whole crypto marketcap is allocated to Bitcoin.
when the numbers on this chart are high, it shows you that the ALT MARKETCAP is draining, no matter what!
But, when this chart is bearish it shows you (NOT NECESSARILY!) that money is flowing from Bitcoin to other ALTCOINs.
Now let's rewind the previous cycle (2017-2018)
back in 2017, as you can see on this chart, the dominance of Bitcoin on Altcoins was completely lost and went in hands of Altcoins such as Ethereum.
That incident triggers the very memorable Alteason of 2017 which a lot of CT (crypto twitter) people like to brag about.
2017's Altseason lasted until late 2017 when Bitcoin finally tops around $20,000. as soon as the bloody year of 2018 begins, BTC.D started to pump towards high numbers.
at first, you would think that the glorious days are not finished but there is more to come for Bitcoin. But the little we knew that the great Bear Market is upon us!
The psychology of 2018 BEAR MARKET
as the market started to collapse, a lot of shit coins (not very valuable but extremely profitable in bull cycles altcoins) were losing over 90% of their value against Bitcoin,
but Bitcoin itself was losing 80% of its value against the U.S DOLLAR, so why the BTC.D was going nuts?
the answer to this question is very simple, the total market cap of the crypto market was draining, people were selling their coins and not reinvesting in lowers prices, but
there were still some investors left for Bitcoin, and you may forget that the BTC.D shows you the "percentage" of the dominant of Bitcoin over rest of the market, now when
Bitcoin was dropping hard in price the rest of the Altcoins were dropping even harsher and more. but I like to keep it dramatic so this is my favorite approach to this question:
Altcoins were about to Parrish from the market forever and left illiquid for the rest of their lives, but Bitcoin still had its bitcoiners, the people who bought literally above $19,000 or so, with the dream of selling their coins at 100,000 UNITED STATE DOLLARS. sounds a bit familiar, doesn't it?
so in reality you would expect the whole market to collapse together, but the big boys always survive. just like coronavirus and what it did to tiny little startups and entrepenures back in 2020.
Those who survived were left to tell the tails
Now the numbers are too low for people to even think about the $100,000 goal, the dream was finally over. so the market continued developing...
you may find this childish but the market actually breaths the same air that we breathe, it is alive just like us. as we approach the next HALVING for Bitcoin, the accumulation phase began. smart money was here way before retail investors dare to reactive their wallet addresses again. in that final phase we saw that Bitcoin dominance tops just after the Halving and the cycle repeats itself once again.
So what is my speculation
Yes you read it right, this is all speculation and not fact so, please do not consider this as financial advice.
we are obviously in a bear market and as I show you on my chart, the next time we can expect strength and smart money to come back to the crypto market is the next halving ( May 2024).
1- we haven't seen it all yet, another -50% on your favorite Altcoin is not out of mind
2- accumulation phase begins just after the capitulation phase, 2023 near the next halving will be a good time to invest.
3- don't try to catch any knives, prices won't skyrocket in one candle. it takes time and a lot of manipulations.
4- be patient, we can bounce 30% but the reality is the same, the next bull cycle is in 2 years ahead of us so keep your targets as low as possible
5- don't be greedy, with your longs and your shorts
6- GL
like and leave a comment if you enjoy it and find it useful XOXO
first let me introduce you to this chart: BTC.D
keeping it simple, BTC.D or Bitcoin Dominance shows you what percentage of the whole crypto marketcap is allocated to Bitcoin.
when the numbers on this chart are high, it shows you that the ALT MARKETCAP is draining, no matter what!
But, when this chart is bearish it shows you (NOT NECESSARILY!) that money is flowing from Bitcoin to other ALTCOINs.
Now let's rewind the previous cycle (2017-2018)
back in 2017, as you can see on this chart, the dominance of Bitcoin on Altcoins was completely lost and went in hands of Altcoins such as Ethereum.
That incident triggers the very memorable Alteason of 2017 which a lot of CT (crypto twitter) people like to brag about.
2017's Altseason lasted until late 2017 when Bitcoin finally tops around $20,000. as soon as the bloody year of 2018 begins, BTC.D started to pump towards high numbers.
at first, you would think that the glorious days are not finished but there is more to come for Bitcoin. But the little we knew that the great Bear Market is upon us!
The psychology of 2018 BEAR MARKET
as the market started to collapse, a lot of shit coins (not very valuable but extremely profitable in bull cycles altcoins) were losing over 90% of their value against Bitcoin,
but Bitcoin itself was losing 80% of its value against the U.S DOLLAR, so why the BTC.D was going nuts?
the answer to this question is very simple, the total market cap of the crypto market was draining, people were selling their coins and not reinvesting in lowers prices, but
there were still some investors left for Bitcoin, and you may forget that the BTC.D shows you the "percentage" of the dominant of Bitcoin over rest of the market, now when
Bitcoin was dropping hard in price the rest of the Altcoins were dropping even harsher and more. but I like to keep it dramatic so this is my favorite approach to this question:
Altcoins were about to Parrish from the market forever and left illiquid for the rest of their lives, but Bitcoin still had its bitcoiners, the people who bought literally above $19,000 or so, with the dream of selling their coins at 100,000 UNITED STATE DOLLARS. sounds a bit familiar, doesn't it?
so in reality you would expect the whole market to collapse together, but the big boys always survive. just like coronavirus and what it did to tiny little startups and entrepenures back in 2020.
Those who survived were left to tell the tails
Now the numbers are too low for people to even think about the $100,000 goal, the dream was finally over. so the market continued developing...
you may find this childish but the market actually breaths the same air that we breathe, it is alive just like us. as we approach the next HALVING for Bitcoin, the accumulation phase began. smart money was here way before retail investors dare to reactive their wallet addresses again. in that final phase we saw that Bitcoin dominance tops just after the Halving and the cycle repeats itself once again.
So what is my speculation
Yes you read it right, this is all speculation and not fact so, please do not consider this as financial advice.
we are obviously in a bear market and as I show you on my chart, the next time we can expect strength and smart money to come back to the crypto market is the next halving ( May 2024).
1- we haven't seen it all yet, another -50% on your favorite Altcoin is not out of mind
2- accumulation phase begins just after the capitulation phase, 2023 near the next halving will be a good time to invest.
3- don't try to catch any knives, prices won't skyrocket in one candle. it takes time and a lot of manipulations.
4- be patient, we can bounce 30% but the reality is the same, the next bull cycle is in 2 years ahead of us so keep your targets as low as possible
5- don't be greedy, with your longs and your shorts
6- GL