.786 Fib From Bitcoin's Inception w/Log Growth Curve
Friends, I hope you are all having a good weekend! I wanted to continue on our theme from last week, regarding the .786 Fib. I know many are glued to the .786 Fib from our prior Bear Market low, as am I. BUT, I also have to consider what happens if we lose $17.2K on the MONTHLY close. Today I wanted to share the .786 from the actual INCEPTION of Bitcoin. I also included the log growth curve that many have seen before. What I found was striking! IF, BIG IF here, we were to lose $17.2K on a monthly close, there is the .786 of the entire structure at $14.7K. This level also coincides with the bottom of the log growth curve. Now I will be the first to admit I TRULY BELIEVED that $17.2K was THE LOW! And while it still could be on the monthly, both the daily and weekly have lost it. The one thing that I always want to do is admit when I am wrong, but also look to areas on the chart that give me a basis for being Bullish or Bearish on a stock or crypto. Such is my case for this chart. This is NOT an attempt to move goal posts, but rather an attempt to overlay a Fib on the Highest time frame possible that still allows for a Bullish outcome.
So for the Good, The Bad, and the Ugly:
THE GOOD NEWS: The MONTHLY CANDLE still awaits and $17.2K remains in play.
The BAD NEWS: If $17.2K is lost, then yes, another leg lower is in the cards. I know this would give Bulls indigestion, but that level is not too far removed from current levels. For me, I am willing to employ some tactical risk management in and around that key area ($14.7K)
THE POTENTIAL UGLY NEWS: If, (another BIG IF here!), Bitcoin were to close under BOTH its logarithmic growth curve AND its .786 Fib of the ENTIRE BULL STRUCTURE on a MONTHLY CLOSE, the Bitcoin Bull is indeed DEAD, and a longer crypto winter awaits with MUCH lower prices than most would like to recognize. While we would still have a retrace, it would be an A-B-C style corrective retrace with lower lows still to follow.
For me, I still remain constructive on Bitcoin. I missed the $17.2K call on the daily and weekly, to that end I am sorry. However, Time will tell if I am still right on the Monthly (which for longer term holders is what matters). For what it is worth, I have NEVER seen such bad news in all of my time in this space. The sentiment alone leads me to believe a turning point is near. While I will NEVER ADVISE ANYONE on how or where to invest, I am a believer in Bitcoin longer term. I am also willing to give the charts a little room to breathe here. I have never made a good trade or investment in haste, and I will not start now.
I wish you all the Best, and I will continue to do all I can to chart the path forward!
So for the Good, The Bad, and the Ugly:
THE GOOD NEWS: The MONTHLY CANDLE still awaits and $17.2K remains in play.
The BAD NEWS: If $17.2K is lost, then yes, another leg lower is in the cards. I know this would give Bulls indigestion, but that level is not too far removed from current levels. For me, I am willing to employ some tactical risk management in and around that key area ($14.7K)
THE POTENTIAL UGLY NEWS: If, (another BIG IF here!), Bitcoin were to close under BOTH its logarithmic growth curve AND its .786 Fib of the ENTIRE BULL STRUCTURE on a MONTHLY CLOSE, the Bitcoin Bull is indeed DEAD, and a longer crypto winter awaits with MUCH lower prices than most would like to recognize. While we would still have a retrace, it would be an A-B-C style corrective retrace with lower lows still to follow.
For me, I still remain constructive on Bitcoin. I missed the $17.2K call on the daily and weekly, to that end I am sorry. However, Time will tell if I am still right on the Monthly (which for longer term holders is what matters). For what it is worth, I have NEVER seen such bad news in all of my time in this space. The sentiment alone leads me to believe a turning point is near. While I will NEVER ADVISE ANYONE on how or where to invest, I am a believer in Bitcoin longer term. I am also willing to give the charts a little room to breathe here. I have never made a good trade or investment in haste, and I will not start now.
I wish you all the Best, and I will continue to do all I can to chart the path forward!
JT