Isn’t this self-explanatory. Refer also to my previous published idea for the repeating, broadening wedge fractal thesis. But note we have several fractals and time scales forming constructive interference, including potentially the cross of the 20 level on the stochastic RSI, the 2018 – 2020 and the H2 2019 broadening wedge.
Comment:
Click here for the specific 1-2-3 chart I’m referring to. Steve (aka Crypto Crew University) is employing a custom programmed indicator (“Steve’s Fib MA”) which implies a very interesting 1-2-3 outcome. I am unable to add that indicator to my own TradingView chart because that indicator is not publicly accessible.
Comment:
Comment:
WILD #Bitcoin Theory NOBODY Is Talking About – This Could Change EVERYTHING
Steve this recent epiphany of yours for a volatile bouncing between $20k and $60k to form a triple top, then back down for a double bottom aligns well with the repeating broadening wedge fractal which I had identified in summer of 2021, which enabled me to predict in advance the (so far a) double top and then decline back down towards the bottom of the said megaphone broadening wedge ~$17k. I have been diagramming all of this on my trading view with recent updates explaining the correlations with your recent epiphanies.
So thus the timing indicated by my repeating pattern analysis says the double bottom will in 2024, and it will be a much lower low finally completing the “terminal impulse“ Elliot Wave condition (caused by wave 2 retracing more than 61.8% of wave 1) which requires wave 4 to decline below the ~$13.8k top of wave 1. I think it may drop as low as $10k (or even $6k where the support line will be). Note this also concurs with the expectations for the Fed being forced to reverse course in 2023, but then causing a massive recession heading into 2024. Also with the very high likelihood of Russia invading Lithuania in 2023 to take control of the Sulwaki Corridor, so they can resupply Kaliningrad. WW3 heats up in 2025 as well which will drive Bitcoin to the moon again because it will have destroyed the impostor Bitcoin Core by that time and restored the Nash Equilibrium of Satoshi’s immutable legacy protocol (the posited miners donations attack may correspond to the said, posited egregious crash in 2024).
C.f. also my comment on your other recent video (Realistic #Bitcoin Prediction: How Long Will This Bear Market Last?) for more insights and how that video correlates with my orthogonal, repeating broadening wedge analysis.
Steve this recent epiphany of yours for a volatile bouncing between $20k and $60k to form a triple top, then back down for a double bottom aligns well with the repeating broadening wedge fractal which I had identified in summer of 2021, which enabled me to predict in advance the (so far a) double top and then decline back down towards the bottom of the said megaphone broadening wedge ~$17k. I have been diagramming all of this on my trading view with recent updates explaining the correlations with your recent epiphanies.
So thus the timing indicated by my repeating pattern analysis says the double bottom will in 2024, and it will be a much lower low finally completing the “terminal impulse“ Elliot Wave condition (caused by wave 2 retracing more than 61.8% of wave 1) which requires wave 4 to decline below the ~$13.8k top of wave 1. I think it may drop as low as $10k (or even $6k where the support line will be). Note this also concurs with the expectations for the Fed being forced to reverse course in 2023, but then causing a massive recession heading into 2024. Also with the very high likelihood of Russia invading Lithuania in 2023 to take control of the Sulwaki Corridor, so they can resupply Kaliningrad. WW3 heats up in 2025 as well which will drive Bitcoin to the moon again because it will have destroyed the impostor Bitcoin Core by that time and restored the Nash Equilibrium of Satoshi’s immutable legacy protocol (the posited miners donations attack may correspond to the said, posited egregious crash in 2024).
C.f. also my comment on your other recent video (Realistic #Bitcoin Prediction: How Long Will This Bear Market Last?) for more insights and how that video correlates with my orthogonal, repeating broadening wedge analysis.
Comment:
INSERTED: P.S. after the spike in Sept or Oct back down we go for a lower low by Jan or Feb 2023 (and again in 2024 even lower) which will be the 3 on your 1-2-3
Comment:
The H2 2019 fractal superimposed at the current scale. This is a rough approximation of what I am expecting to play out. I think there will be a slingshot stomp down wick to a lower low in August before a steep rally back up to the top of the posited broadening wedge by Sep/Oct.
Comment:
Two excellent, timely, pertinent videos making the bearish case to support my expectation for an incoming stomp down, slingshot, wick lower low for Bitcoin. Both can be viewed intelligibly on double-speed playback (and I skip forward past segments of Ron Walker’s redundant verbiage). For the first one from Ron Walker (aka The Crypto Trader), I disagree with him though that heading back up to ATHs so soon. Instead I think Bitcoin’s slingshot rally will not breach above ~$45k and subsequently will come back down falling out of the massive bearish wedge on his linked chart, which then becomes overhead resistance until 2026 or so!
Bitcoin CRASH Soon! BTC Is Likely About To CRASH To This Trendline To Form A Bottom At 14K To 15K
WARNING BITCOIN & ETHEREUM HOLDERS!! Bitcoin News Today & Ethereum Price Prediction (BTC & ETH)
Bitcoin CRASH Soon! BTC Is Likely About To CRASH To This Trendline To Form A Bottom At 14K To 15K
WARNING BITCOIN & ETHEREUM HOLDERS!! Bitcoin News Today & Ethereum Price Prediction (BTC & ETH)
Comment:
Bitcoin might come down to ~$22.7k, then possibly another exhaustion leg up. I will be traveling after some sleep.
Comment:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=wRks4cYS...
(This Chart SCARES Me – An HONEST Hot Take)
Agreed. I will tell you now what is likely to happen is come up to test ~$44k, then back down to $10k. Then the bull market will begin anew. As for this month, expect a retest of ~$20k but not likely a significantly lower low.
(This Chart SCARES Me – An HONEST Hot Take)
Agreed. I will tell you now what is likely to happen is come up to test ~$44k, then back down to $10k. Then the bull market will begin anew. As for this month, expect a retest of ~$20k but not likely a significantly lower low.
Comment:
youtu.be/GttbKagm0-s?t=57
(My Bitcoin & CPI Inflation rate number prediction for next week!)
An alternative interpretation that vies with my megaphone (broadening wedge) interpretation.
In @OPTICALARTdotCOM’s Fib circle interpretation, the incoming low would launch a massive bull cycle.
I recreated his:
But does mine make more sense? I think so.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=GttbKagm...
(My Bitcoin & CPI Inflation rate number prediction for next week!)
Your Bitcoin Fib circles were drawn incorrectly and this will deceive you going forward. Your interpretation says the bottom is near and then a massive bull market starts. There is no way that can be the case because the recession is just getting started. Instead draw your second Fib circle with the top end at the 2021 top, then you will have a more correct interpretation of the future, which also happens to match the megaphone pattern that is repeating. There is actually a broadening wedge that bounds the price action in your first Fib circle which is repeating in the second one if drawn as I instructed. Inflation may push a bit higher because the last PCE report was hotter than expected and inflation is broadening into wage hikes, yet energy and commodity costs are down so likely inflation is topping out by September or October. Thus very likely to get a rally before the end of this year as was the case in 2007 before the crash. The severe crash in the S&P that you’re expecting isn’t coming until 2023 or 2024. If you redraw your second Bitcoin Fib circle as instructed, the timing will make much sense. Inflation is going much higher in 2023 and/or 2024 so then you will hit your resistance line at much higher levels north of 12%. Unemployment doesn’t have to come down for inflation to come down if the price inflation was driven by the supply side instead of the demand side. U.S. wage inflation is not the major driver of price inflation right now. Unless the China-Taiwan situation blows up or Russia invades the Sulwaki Corridor, then commodity and fuel driven inflation should continue to wane until this winter when Europe’s natural gas shortage becomes acute.
(My Bitcoin & CPI Inflation rate number prediction for next week!)
An alternative interpretation that vies with my megaphone (broadening wedge) interpretation.
In @OPTICALARTdotCOM’s Fib circle interpretation, the incoming low would launch a massive bull cycle.
I recreated his:
But does mine make more sense? I think so.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=GttbKagm...
(My Bitcoin & CPI Inflation rate number prediction for next week!)
Your Bitcoin Fib circles were drawn incorrectly and this will deceive you going forward. Your interpretation says the bottom is near and then a massive bull market starts. There is no way that can be the case because the recession is just getting started. Instead draw your second Fib circle with the top end at the 2021 top, then you will have a more correct interpretation of the future, which also happens to match the megaphone pattern that is repeating. There is actually a broadening wedge that bounds the price action in your first Fib circle which is repeating in the second one if drawn as I instructed. Inflation may push a bit higher because the last PCE report was hotter than expected and inflation is broadening into wage hikes, yet energy and commodity costs are down so likely inflation is topping out by September or October. Thus very likely to get a rally before the end of this year as was the case in 2007 before the crash. The severe crash in the S&P that you’re expecting isn’t coming until 2023 or 2024. If you redraw your second Bitcoin Fib circle as instructed, the timing will make much sense. Inflation is going much higher in 2023 and/or 2024 so then you will hit your resistance line at much higher levels north of 12%. Unemployment doesn’t have to come down for inflation to come down if the price inflation was driven by the supply side instead of the demand side. U.S. wage inflation is not the major driver of price inflation right now. Unless the China-Taiwan situation blows up or Russia invades the Sulwaki Corridor, then commodity and fuel driven inflation should continue to wane until this winter when Europe’s natural gas shortage becomes acute.
Comment:
One more ETH pullback before run?
youtu.be/Hl4sy8HngeM?t=61 ← click for the chart
(Attention ETH Holders: Do This Right Now!)
Only a slight dip then rally into November? Or Steve @ CryptoCrew University may have this labeled incorrectly because the death cross was before the bottom. I have proposed adding a {?} label and this leads me to a different more sensible, Bitcoin Fib circle correlation and everything seems to fit perfectly.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hl4sy8Hn...
(Attention ETH Holders: Do This Right Now!)
Steve may have an error in his labeling of #6. Notice the death cross occurred before the bottom previously but the posited June bottom occurred before the recent death cross. Also note that the rally since June looks similar to the fractal rally between #5 and #6 on the prior cycle. Thus I think a lower low for #6 is incoming in August or September.
youtu.be/Hl4sy8HngeM?t=61 ← click for the chart
(Attention ETH Holders: Do This Right Now!)
Only a slight dip then rally into November? Or Steve @ CryptoCrew University may have this labeled incorrectly because the death cross was before the bottom. I have proposed adding a {?} label and this leads me to a different more sensible, Bitcoin Fib circle correlation and everything seems to fit perfectly.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hl4sy8Hn...
(Attention ETH Holders: Do This Right Now!)
Steve may have an error in his labeling of #6. Notice the death cross occurred before the bottom previously but the posited June bottom occurred before the recent death cross. Also note that the rally since June looks similar to the fractal rally between #5 and #6 on the prior cycle. Thus I think a lower low for #6 is incoming in August or September.
Comment:
Alex Becker (who made his initial fortune in SEO and marketing services) is making some very interesting points (listen on 1.5X speed and enjoy his colorful exposition):
youtu.be/ednbinYuoy0
(I Sold ALL My Crypto & Stocks. Get Out NOW.)
1. He has correctly bought and sold every top and bottom since 2020 at least. He is selling to lock in gains now because this unexpected parabolic relief rally is faster appreciation than he expected.
2. If he is wrong and BTC heads for $28 – 32k (and note I am thinking perhaps after a pullback next week), then mid-cap altcoins are likely to pop even more than the majors. So given the downside risk, he will prefer to buy the coins which are much further down from their ATHs than the majors because he can risk less and get higher ROI if there’s more upside yet.
3. Skip past the halfway point in the video to listen his altcoin recommendations and reasoning.
4. He points out that China is economically imploding and black swan risks are not off the table. He doesn’t believe this is the time for markets to move back to ATHs. He doesn’t want to time exactly the top and wants to take profits at 80% of the way up so he doesn’t get burned. He thinks $16k Bitcoin and 3600 – 3700 S&P could be revisited eventually.
I don’t disagree with his reasoning.
youtu.be/ednbinYuoy0
(I Sold ALL My Crypto & Stocks. Get Out NOW.)
1. He has correctly bought and sold every top and bottom since 2020 at least. He is selling to lock in gains now because this unexpected parabolic relief rally is faster appreciation than he expected.
2. If he is wrong and BTC heads for $28 – 32k (and note I am thinking perhaps after a pullback next week), then mid-cap altcoins are likely to pop even more than the majors. So given the downside risk, he will prefer to buy the coins which are much further down from their ATHs than the majors because he can risk less and get higher ROI if there’s more upside yet.
3. Skip past the halfway point in the video to listen his altcoin recommendations and reasoning.
4. He points out that China is economically imploding and black swan risks are not off the table. He doesn’t believe this is the time for markets to move back to ATHs. He doesn’t want to time exactly the top and wants to take profits at 80% of the way up so he doesn’t get burned. He thinks $16k Bitcoin and 3600 – 3700 S&P could be revisited eventually.
I don’t disagree with his reasoning.
Comment:
youtu.be/gWYa8eyRO_4
(Why I Only Invest In Crypto Gaming)
Alex Becker further explains my point about why gaming and the metaverse is the future and why it will form a complete economy. And this is very important for my plans about an altcoin.
In the prior video, Alex mentions Neo Toyko community to stay abreast of which altcoins to pay attention to and he lists some micro-cap altcoins:
youtu.be/ednbinYuoy0?t=1275
Can anyone make a list for us by going back through his videos?
(Why I Only Invest In Crypto Gaming)
Alex Becker further explains my point about why gaming and the metaverse is the future and why it will form a complete economy. And this is very important for my plans about an altcoin.
In the prior video, Alex mentions Neo Toyko community to stay abreast of which altcoins to pay attention to and he lists some micro-cap altcoins:
youtu.be/ednbinYuoy0?t=1275
Can anyone make a list for us by going back through his videos?
Comment:
Insiders have been unloading on this rally which portends another crash 6 months from now. Well that is what I have been expecting. This doesn’t mean there can not be a further rally interim. Insiders don’t time the exact top.
youtu.be/Hvv62u7GcKc
(Selling Everything - The Next Crash Is Coming)
youtu.be/Hvv62u7GcKc
(Selling Everything - The Next Crash Is Coming)
Comment:
Prior video and the following indicate the bottom is behind us until 2023.
SP500 REJECTING Off a Major Line of Resistance | This is Going to SHAKE Investors Out
SP500 REJECTING Off a Major Line of Resistance | This is Going to SHAKE Investors Out
Comment:
Comprehensive long-term projection follow-up on the mathematician’s published idea:
www.tradingview.com/...-toward-20-3k-20-4k/
My observations after studying the charts intensively last night and this morning.
The December 2018 bottom to the March 2020 corona dump is repeating. The proportional duration (prior:current) could be 1:1, 11:13 or 2:3; I’m leaning to the middle (second) one. Timing wise the crypto markets are much more tightly correlated to the S&P than in 2018. Bitcoin is languishing as it did in early 2019 until it went parabolic after ETH periscoped its 200 daily SMA and BTC surmounted the same and its overhead resistance downtrend line (which is currently ~$29k); expecting a repeat. Implications include a crypto top in December 2022, January or March 2023 respectively and a massive corona-like flash crash from a final peak August, October 2023 or March 2024. Martin Armstrong’s DJIA Forecast Array has an aggregate peak and long-term, trading cycle for January 2023. A May 2023 bottom could follow a January crypto top with the Fed forced to become more dovish as they did Oct/Nov 2019 corresponding to a Panic Cycle in May 2023 on said Forecast Array. The early 2018, late 2018 and 2020 S&P crashes have monotonically increased in percentage by a factor of 1.75; which projects to -62.5% for the next one; and from top (~5700 – 6100) to bottom in less than 2 months! Pootin invades the Sulwaki Corridor? Monkeypox is crowned?
Near-term whether there’s a leg higher interim, S&P must decline between 3960 to 4090 — probably the latter only. ETH may decline into the low 1400s. BTC should not decline below $20.7k. I believe the markets have been in a terminal impulse wave status since major EW count wave 2 for the corona dump retraced more than 61.8% of major wave 1, thus all wave counts should be A-B-C even on non-corrective, impulse waves. Counting from the June bottom in waves of 3 seems to make more sense than a posited 5 wave count?
ETH currently retraced log-scaled 0.382 Fib contrasted with 0.236 for the posited corresponding juncture in early 2019; BTC has comparable Fib amplification. Whereas the Nasdaq and S&P currently retraced 0.5 and 0.618 respectively contrasted with 0.618 and 0.618/0.786 in early 2019. This may portend 53 – 63k BTC, 3400 – 3800 ETH, 4831 S&P and 16050 Nasdaq for the Q1 2023 top. And 53 – 75k BTC, 3400 – 6000 ETH, 5550 S&P and 21389 Nasdaq for the posited final top before the posited -62% flash crash. I’m leaning to the higher values for crypto reflected in the aforementioned relative Fib amplification, because unlike 2019 when crypto was in a disbelief stage, crypto is more digested now and once the Fed turns dovish then crypto FOMO will surge.
www.tradingview.com/...-toward-20-3k-20-4k/
My observations after studying the charts intensively last night and this morning.
The December 2018 bottom to the March 2020 corona dump is repeating. The proportional duration (prior:current) could be 1:1, 11:13 or 2:3; I’m leaning to the middle (second) one. Timing wise the crypto markets are much more tightly correlated to the S&P than in 2018. Bitcoin is languishing as it did in early 2019 until it went parabolic after ETH periscoped its 200 daily SMA and BTC surmounted the same and its overhead resistance downtrend line (which is currently ~$29k); expecting a repeat. Implications include a crypto top in December 2022, January or March 2023 respectively and a massive corona-like flash crash from a final peak August, October 2023 or March 2024. Martin Armstrong’s DJIA Forecast Array has an aggregate peak and long-term, trading cycle for January 2023. A May 2023 bottom could follow a January crypto top with the Fed forced to become more dovish as they did Oct/Nov 2019 corresponding to a Panic Cycle in May 2023 on said Forecast Array. The early 2018, late 2018 and 2020 S&P crashes have monotonically increased in percentage by a factor of 1.75; which projects to -62.5% for the next one; and from top (~5700 – 6100) to bottom in less than 2 months! Pootin invades the Sulwaki Corridor? Monkeypox is crowned?
Near-term whether there’s a leg higher interim, S&P must decline between 3960 to 4090 — probably the latter only. ETH may decline into the low 1400s. BTC should not decline below $20.7k. I believe the markets have been in a terminal impulse wave status since major EW count wave 2 for the corona dump retraced more than 61.8% of major wave 1, thus all wave counts should be A-B-C even on non-corrective, impulse waves. Counting from the June bottom in waves of 3 seems to make more sense than a posited 5 wave count?
ETH currently retraced log-scaled 0.382 Fib contrasted with 0.236 for the posited corresponding juncture in early 2019; BTC has comparable Fib amplification. Whereas the Nasdaq and S&P currently retraced 0.5 and 0.618 respectively contrasted with 0.618 and 0.618/0.786 in early 2019. This may portend 53 – 63k BTC, 3400 – 3800 ETH, 4831 S&P and 16050 Nasdaq for the Q1 2023 top. And 53 – 75k BTC, 3400 – 6000 ETH, 5550 S&P and 21389 Nasdaq for the posited final top before the posited -62% flash crash. I’m leaning to the higher values for crypto reflected in the aforementioned relative Fib amplification, because unlike 2019 when crypto was in a disbelief stage, crypto is more digested now and once the Fed turns dovish then crypto FOMO will surge.
Comment:
I am not bullish on ADA. Maybe to hit $1.20 by Q1 2023, but to decline below 1 cents again in the late 2023 or early 2024 flash crash. Well BTC and ETH to decline below $10k and $150 then also.
Possible explanation is ADA has slow development and proof-of-stake is doomed.
Possible explanation is ADA has slow development and proof-of-stake is doomed.
Comment:
Or one could argue as Ron Walker does that because markets have been pushed higher on the bull trap rally, then drop will be worse.
But what is the catalyst for that? Inflation is moderating, companies are still reporting good earnings in the U.S., consumer spending, jobs and wages not yet declining. And massive amounts of cash still on the sidelines with many still betting short. Are they going to sit in cash while the ~20% inflation debases purchasing power? Would need to be some black swan with Russia? In an election year? Sept/Oct is often choppy and volatile, especially in an election year.
In 2021 the Elon Musk and Michael Saylor hype. In 2020 was the tech bubble driven by the pLandemic lockdowns and massive stimulus. In 2019 it was the QE momentum from the Great Recession coupled with the dead cat enthusiasm from the altcoin FOMO bubble of 2017. Coming off the 2022 bottom has been the ETH merge. Altcoin gaming with transportable NFTs may be the next hype. Also Kevin O’Leary has been pushing the theme that sovereign wealth funds are coming very soon into Bitcoin and BlackRock recently enabled custodial purchasing facilitated by Coinbase! BlackRock owns the Fed and Treasury Dept! The markets are flooded with cash from the QE and stimulus, and that cash has to go some where so that the whales can fleece the greater fool dolphins and minnows.
Remember the game theory prerequisite to take Bitcoin to a nosebleed price and onboard everyone the-powers-that-be want to destroy/fleece, before the ANYONECANSPEND attack can be unleashed.
But what is the catalyst for that? Inflation is moderating, companies are still reporting good earnings in the U.S., consumer spending, jobs and wages not yet declining. And massive amounts of cash still on the sidelines with many still betting short. Are they going to sit in cash while the ~20% inflation debases purchasing power? Would need to be some black swan with Russia? In an election year? Sept/Oct is often choppy and volatile, especially in an election year.
In 2021 the Elon Musk and Michael Saylor hype. In 2020 was the tech bubble driven by the pLandemic lockdowns and massive stimulus. In 2019 it was the QE momentum from the Great Recession coupled with the dead cat enthusiasm from the altcoin FOMO bubble of 2017. Coming off the 2022 bottom has been the ETH merge. Altcoin gaming with transportable NFTs may be the next hype. Also Kevin O’Leary has been pushing the theme that sovereign wealth funds are coming very soon into Bitcoin and BlackRock recently enabled custodial purchasing facilitated by Coinbase! BlackRock owns the Fed and Treasury Dept! The markets are flooded with cash from the QE and stimulus, and that cash has to go some where so that the whales can fleece the greater fool dolphins and minnows.
Remember the game theory prerequisite to take Bitcoin to a nosebleed price and onboard everyone the-powers-that-be want to destroy/fleece, before the ANYONECANSPEND attack can be unleashed.
Comment:
Sorry Adam I believe you will be left behind on this. Reevaluate your imminent doom. Doom takes time to play out. Stuff happens interim. You can not win in investing by being afraid. Emotional investors are destroyed. You must have conviction so as to ignore the volatility.
Adam the logic in everything overhyped is the entire world is maladapted due to the money printing. The way the system destroys itself and the powers-that-be attempt to consolidate everything is by overhyping and then crashing, wash-rinse-repeat. The charts have patterns which are a roadmap to these actions, because the markets can’t hide their order in chaos. The data is public.
Don’t take a simpleton perspective that everything must just crash in one move. Entropy and natural systems never behave like that. Notice how everything moved back to a peak in January 2020 before the implosion. And the insiders were selling that peak. Insiders are not selling now! They are buying now at the juncture where most people are very afraid that the recession will get much worse before it gets better as indicated by sentiment surveys. Yet when asked about their own finances, they are spending like nothing changed.
Since this bottom Google searches for bull trap are on a giganormous spike up. On this rally the searches for bear trap have also started to rise, thus the need for a pullback to keep the majority afraid and sitting on their hands while the market runs away from them (and they end up buying the top).
The psychology of the markets is manipulating you. There’s no surety with markets and those who want surety will be destroyed as biblical proverbs warns. There’s only probabilities.
Adam the logic in everything overhyped is the entire world is maladapted due to the money printing. The way the system destroys itself and the powers-that-be attempt to consolidate everything is by overhyping and then crashing, wash-rinse-repeat. The charts have patterns which are a roadmap to these actions, because the markets can’t hide their order in chaos. The data is public.
Don’t take a simpleton perspective that everything must just crash in one move. Entropy and natural systems never behave like that. Notice how everything moved back to a peak in January 2020 before the implosion. And the insiders were selling that peak. Insiders are not selling now! They are buying now at the juncture where most people are very afraid that the recession will get much worse before it gets better as indicated by sentiment surveys. Yet when asked about their own finances, they are spending like nothing changed.
Since this bottom Google searches for bull trap are on a giganormous spike up. On this rally the searches for bear trap have also started to rise, thus the need for a pullback to keep the majority afraid and sitting on their hands while the market runs away from them (and they end up buying the top).
The psychology of the markets is manipulating you. There’s no surety with markets and those who want surety will be destroyed as biblical proverbs warns. There’s only probabilities.
Comment:
I annotated this VIX chart in the summer of 2021 and published it.
The VIX chart narrative. The bull-market, declining channel from 2010 to 2018, which turned into a bullish (for VIX bearish for stocks) ascending triangle or wedge from 2018 to 2020. Then the massive spike bull move corresponding to the corona, pLandemic flash crash. Then the bull-market, declining channel from Q2 2020 to Q4 2021, with the market-bearish, bullish VIX breakout peaking to the projected measured move.
VIX has essentially repeated December 2018 to February 2019 already; and now appears poised to repeat pattern from week of February 19. VIX appears to be in another bullish (for VIX bearish for stocks) wedge with a massive spike (market flash crash) breakout to follow in Q3 or Q4 2023. Initial, spike up breakout (i.e. markets correction) may be in Q2 2023 then calm down again for several months.
All proceeding exactly as the chart projected! If we would just stop ignoring this chart structure, we would be very wealthy from speculative investments.
Notice the bull-market, declining channels are becoming shorter in duration and steeper; thus the next one from 2024 may be only 6 months in duration and near vertical — can readers repeat after me, “ANYONECANSPEND Bitcoin attack followed by vertical, catapult of legacy Bitcoin”! The monetary, economic and political system is self-immolating. Nuclear WW3 (against China-Russia-N.Korea-Iran) surely on tap for ~2025 with Russia-NATO conflict as early as H2 2023.
The VIX chart narrative. The bull-market, declining channel from 2010 to 2018, which turned into a bullish (for VIX bearish for stocks) ascending triangle or wedge from 2018 to 2020. Then the massive spike bull move corresponding to the corona, pLandemic flash crash. Then the bull-market, declining channel from Q2 2020 to Q4 2021, with the market-bearish, bullish VIX breakout peaking to the projected measured move.
VIX has essentially repeated December 2018 to February 2019 already; and now appears poised to repeat pattern from week of February 19. VIX appears to be in another bullish (for VIX bearish for stocks) wedge with a massive spike (market flash crash) breakout to follow in Q3 or Q4 2023. Initial, spike up breakout (i.e. markets correction) may be in Q2 2023 then calm down again for several months.
All proceeding exactly as the chart projected! If we would just stop ignoring this chart structure, we would be very wealthy from speculative investments.
Notice the bull-market, declining channels are becoming shorter in duration and steeper; thus the next one from 2024 may be only 6 months in duration and near vertical — can readers repeat after me, “ANYONECANSPEND Bitcoin attack followed by vertical, catapult of legacy Bitcoin”! The monetary, economic and political system is self-immolating. Nuclear WW3 (against China-Russia-N.Korea-Iran) surely on tap for ~2025 with Russia-NATO conflict as early as H2 2023.
Comment:
I studied the chart history for a significant sampling of these altcoins.
I’ve soured on this (NFT and gaming) altcoin moon thesis as BTC breaks out above ~$29k. Rather it looks like a repeat of H1 2019 where all these look to be nearing their peaks as priced in BTC and once BTC breaks out above $29k, it will suck the air out of all the alts (at least in terms of leverage over BTC) as it also did in H2 2020. Better to wait on all these until at least the posited bottom in May 2023 for the rally into the final high. It’s not altcoin season in earnest. The Bitcoin Dominance with stable coins removed looks bullish to me with the ETH merge hype as a dead cat rally only.
The proof-of-work fork of ETH will duplicate and double the supply of all ERC-20 altcoin tokens after the merge causing chaos and sell pressure — another reason for a pullback incoming and probably an overhang on the altcoins for some months. These (including my recent comments about the loss of fungibility) are revealing the untenable dogesh8t that altcoins are.
I’ve soured on this (NFT and gaming) altcoin moon thesis as BTC breaks out above ~$29k. Rather it looks like a repeat of H1 2019 where all these look to be nearing their peaks as priced in BTC and once BTC breaks out above $29k, it will suck the air out of all the alts (at least in terms of leverage over BTC) as it also did in H2 2020. Better to wait on all these until at least the posited bottom in May 2023 for the rally into the final high. It’s not altcoin season in earnest. The Bitcoin Dominance with stable coins removed looks bullish to me with the ETH merge hype as a dead cat rally only.
The proof-of-work fork of ETH will duplicate and double the supply of all ERC-20 altcoin tokens after the merge causing chaos and sell pressure — another reason for a pullback incoming and probably an overhang on the altcoins for some months. These (including my recent comments about the loss of fungibility) are revealing the untenable dogesh8t that altcoins are.
Comment:
Here’s a matching “triple top” (aka actually quadruple or double-double) ANYONECANSPEND death spiral (followed by Rothschild’s Economist Magazine 1988 cover story Phoenix ‘rising from the ashes’ thereafter) visual model for Bitcoin:
Comment:
www.tradingview.com/...-toward-20-3k-20-4k/
Bitcoin will make a new ATH in 2023! Or at least close to it, c.f. this yearly chart.
Let’s analyse the pattern. 2019 almost got back to the ATH and that appears to be repeating except note in 2019 that stock markets did make ATHs and crypto is more correlated with stock markets now than in 2019 (as evidenced by the relative Fib amplification compared to 2019, crypto bottoming on same day and other metrics of correlation).
Notice that 2020 printed a new ATH after 2018 red year. Whereas only 2017 was new ATH after 2014 red year. 2019 was more correlated to stocks and 2022 even more correlated.
2024 will be a near vertical move to an egregiously higher high ~$1 million for legacy Bitcoin after a crash to $7k or lower.
thus the next one from 2024 may be only 6 months in duration and near vertical
Bitcoin will make a new ATH in 2023! Or at least close to it, c.f. this yearly chart.
Let’s analyse the pattern. 2019 almost got back to the ATH and that appears to be repeating except note in 2019 that stock markets did make ATHs and crypto is more correlated with stock markets now than in 2019 (as evidenced by the relative Fib amplification compared to 2019, crypto bottoming on same day and other metrics of correlation).
Notice that 2020 printed a new ATH after 2018 red year. Whereas only 2017 was new ATH after 2014 red year. 2019 was more correlated to stocks and 2022 even more correlated.
2024 will be a near vertical move to an egregiously higher high ~$1 million for legacy Bitcoin after a crash to $7k or lower.
thus the next one from 2024 may be only 6 months in duration and near vertical
Comment:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=q4YQNq9m...
(Crypto Expert Gives SHOCKING Bitcoin Prediction for September (When Will Bitcoin Bottom?))
Disagree on his Accumulation/Distribution thesis. www.youtube.com/watch?v=mGDcZp9x...
I have ostensibly cast my information gathering net much wider than you two if you both think that the Fed needs to stop tightening before the stock market can rally to new ATHs and Bitcoin making a significant rally. Firstly just look back to 2019 (which btw is my repeating fractal, broadening wedge model period as well) wherein the Fed had been reducing its QE balance sheet and then gradually only in very slight, nuanced, dovish tone, jawboned through early 2019 causing a massive risk-on rally. What happened is that once the FOMO kicked in, the cash on the sidelines rushed back through the exit door in a stampede to get back inside the burning movie threater before the corona dump. Essentially the markets exploded once the worst of the balance reduction FUD (i.e. fear) had been priced in. C.f. Yardeni Research’s Chronology of Fed’s Quantitative Easing & Tightening. Also every recession has come delayed and even for example in 2007, the initial dive bomb was reversed into a new ATH before the actual crash into the Greater Recession abyss which is coming 2023 to 2024. Both of you would be well served to partake of some of Meet Kevin’s and Game of Trades’ analyses. The sentiment analysis for example points to the bottom is behind us for the major U.S. stock market indices until after another new ATH is printed. Coming in late 2023 or early 2024 will be another black swan flash crash and 1.75 times that of the corona dump, thus -62%.
E.K.C. is such a n00b when it comes to understanding the technology and game theory of the crypto sector. Ethereum has always been a USG scam:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=javNu2qX...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=javNu2qX...
(Crypto Expert Gives SHOCKING Bitcoin Prediction for September (When Will Bitcoin Bottom?))
Disagree on his Accumulation/Distribution thesis. www.youtube.com/watch?v=mGDcZp9x...
I have ostensibly cast my information gathering net much wider than you two if you both think that the Fed needs to stop tightening before the stock market can rally to new ATHs and Bitcoin making a significant rally. Firstly just look back to 2019 (which btw is my repeating fractal, broadening wedge model period as well) wherein the Fed had been reducing its QE balance sheet and then gradually only in very slight, nuanced, dovish tone, jawboned through early 2019 causing a massive risk-on rally. What happened is that once the FOMO kicked in, the cash on the sidelines rushed back through the exit door in a stampede to get back inside the burning movie threater before the corona dump. Essentially the markets exploded once the worst of the balance reduction FUD (i.e. fear) had been priced in. C.f. Yardeni Research’s Chronology of Fed’s Quantitative Easing & Tightening. Also every recession has come delayed and even for example in 2007, the initial dive bomb was reversed into a new ATH before the actual crash into the Greater Recession abyss which is coming 2023 to 2024. Both of you would be well served to partake of some of Meet Kevin’s and Game of Trades’ analyses. The sentiment analysis for example points to the bottom is behind us for the major U.S. stock market indices until after another new ATH is printed. Coming in late 2023 or early 2024 will be another black swan flash crash and 1.75 times that of the corona dump, thus -62%.
E.K.C. is such a n00b when it comes to understanding the technology and game theory of the crypto sector. Ethereum has always been a USG scam:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=javNu2qX...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=javNu2qX...
Comment:
www.tradingview.com/...wnTTJulA-ETH-update/
I concur except I think the higher low will be ~1300 around third week of September corresponding to the drop below ~4000 on your SPX (S&P) General Structure. Why do you think ETH will lag for so many months if the SPX is poised to skyrocket? BTC will eventually surprise to the upside, probably on the rally starting in mid-October to catapult to ~$32k. Perhaps only ~$25.8k on the incoming wave 5 after pullback to ~$19 – 20k later this week. I am doubting BTC will make a lower low in September.
SPX forming a massive bullish, inverted H&S (with that move down to ~4000 later in September to form the right shoulder) or coiling within the massive broadening, declining wedge. Either T/A structure indicates a breakout in October (which corresponds to the Panic Cycle for the week of October 17 on Armstrong’s DJIA Forecast Array following the spike in Volatility for the weeks of Sep 12 and Oct 3 and all of September is a Panic Cycle as well week of Aug 22 with week of Aug 29 forming a new high) targeting a new ATH for the SPX no later than January. The high may extend into March after a pullback. I am incorporating many factors including Armstrong’s weekly and monthly DJIA Forecast Arrays (which have components for Volatility, Panic Cycles, Directional Changes, L-wave & Empirical waves, Trading Cycles and Long-term), the correspondence to the December 2018 bottom, rally in H1 2019 and the current T/A structures.
I can’t fathom the catalyst for a SPX lower low.
I concur except I think the higher low will be ~1300 around third week of September corresponding to the drop below ~4000 on your SPX (S&P) General Structure. Why do you think ETH will lag for so many months if the SPX is poised to skyrocket? BTC will eventually surprise to the upside, probably on the rally starting in mid-October to catapult to ~$32k. Perhaps only ~$25.8k on the incoming wave 5 after pullback to ~$19 – 20k later this week. I am doubting BTC will make a lower low in September.
SPX forming a massive bullish, inverted H&S (with that move down to ~4000 later in September to form the right shoulder) or coiling within the massive broadening, declining wedge. Either T/A structure indicates a breakout in October (which corresponds to the Panic Cycle for the week of October 17 on Armstrong’s DJIA Forecast Array following the spike in Volatility for the weeks of Sep 12 and Oct 3 and all of September is a Panic Cycle as well week of Aug 22 with week of Aug 29 forming a new high) targeting a new ATH for the SPX no later than January. The high may extend into March after a pullback. I am incorporating many factors including Armstrong’s weekly and monthly DJIA Forecast Arrays (which have components for Volatility, Panic Cycles, Directional Changes, L-wave & Empirical waves, Trading Cycles and Long-term), the correspondence to the December 2018 bottom, rally in H1 2019 and the current T/A structures.
I can’t fathom the catalyst for a SPX lower low.
Comment:
BTC, ETH and ADA prices respectively. My current outlook is for a potential continued relief rally tomorrow to ~21.9–22.8k, 1720–1820 and 0.48–0.50. with a decline into the end of the week to ~19.3–20.4k, 1475 and 0.40–0.43. A bull trap rally next week to ~25.7k, 2500 and 0.59–0.69. A decline into third week of September ~18.1–19.3k, 1300 and 0.40–0.45 (SPX to ~3980). A rally into Nov/Dec 42k, 3400 and 1.45 as ETH and ADA slam into their overhead resistance trend lines on my recent chart updates. Pullback and two more surges into January and March with final tops 60–65k, 4100–4200 and 1.55.
What’s not clear is whether ETH and ADA will under perform from that juncture as they did in 2019. Will they stay trapped under their said overhead trend lines or will the bullish EW count (c.f. my published updates) hold and they proceed up to new ATHs to complete their posited, major wave 5?
BTC will decline until May perhaps to ~36k. Then it will rally to ~75k (70–80k, i.e. a “triple, quadruple or double-double” top) into Q4 2023 (perhaps a Sept/Oct peak), presumably due to the Fed forced to become more dovish but not yet rockets-to-da-moon QE (as was the case in 2019 as noted in my recent updates). A FLASH CRASH (Russia invades Lithuania and takes the Sulwaki Corridor?) will seek egregious lows ~5–7k, 120–300 and 0.03–0.10 by end of 2024. Readers repeat after me, ‘ANYONECANSPEND restoration, donations-to-the-miners “attack”.‘ Note timing could be extended by a couple of months or so. I’m expecting the SPX to crash -62.5% from ~5900 to ~2180. Note every percentage decline on the SPX has been increasing by 1.75 so the -35.5% corona flash crash will be amplified. Many exchanges and stable coins may fail so keep that in mind if attempting to short the cryptocurrencies.
The Fed will be forced to QE-to-da-moon again but with inflation already hot a.f. due to accelerating international war and sanctions thereof. The Fed will discover they are pushing on a string (marginal-utility-of-debt gone egregiously negative) so they are likely to be unable to control interest rates and non-speculative, non-FOMO legacy (i.e. Satoshi’s immutable protocol, not BTC, BCH nor BSV!) Bitcoin should finally start mooning on fear (as gold does) as the monetary reset looms.
The altcoins (all that FOMO, speculative dogesh8t, including the altcoin Bitcoin Core which was created by the corruption on the 2017 N.Y. Agreement soft fork…soft forks are deceptions and must eventually hard fork/f-ck) will have declined for the first time to well below their prior cycle ATHs indicating the end of their half-decade bull market (all except LTC launched ~2017). The proof-of-work altcoins will be destroyed by repeated, difficulty-bomb non-readjustment attacks. The proof-of-stake sh8tcoins will be attacked by government regulation as they are folded into the orbit of the central bank digital currencies’ (CBDCs’) dominion — as TPTB try to enslave us in totalitarian, negative interest rates aka capital controls by trying to end the free market with their futile, diabolical “Great Reset” collateral damage wrecking ball.
ETH may form a bearish double-top and/or decade long, bearish, H&S pattern projecting to $0. All cryptocurrencies other than legacy Bitcoin to $0 whilst Satoshi’s Phoenix rises to $1 million.
ETH:BTC appears to be dying. It peaked in 2017 and now is dead cat rallying in a bearish rising channel or wedge.
Ditto ADA:BTC:
What’s not clear is whether ETH and ADA will under perform from that juncture as they did in 2019. Will they stay trapped under their said overhead trend lines or will the bullish EW count (c.f. my published updates) hold and they proceed up to new ATHs to complete their posited, major wave 5?
BTC will decline until May perhaps to ~36k. Then it will rally to ~75k (70–80k, i.e. a “triple, quadruple or double-double” top) into Q4 2023 (perhaps a Sept/Oct peak), presumably due to the Fed forced to become more dovish but not yet rockets-to-da-moon QE (as was the case in 2019 as noted in my recent updates). A FLASH CRASH (Russia invades Lithuania and takes the Sulwaki Corridor?) will seek egregious lows ~5–7k, 120–300 and 0.03–0.10 by end of 2024. Readers repeat after me, ‘ANYONECANSPEND restoration, donations-to-the-miners “attack”.‘ Note timing could be extended by a couple of months or so. I’m expecting the SPX to crash -62.5% from ~5900 to ~2180. Note every percentage decline on the SPX has been increasing by 1.75 so the -35.5% corona flash crash will be amplified. Many exchanges and stable coins may fail so keep that in mind if attempting to short the cryptocurrencies.
The Fed will be forced to QE-to-da-moon again but with inflation already hot a.f. due to accelerating international war and sanctions thereof. The Fed will discover they are pushing on a string (marginal-utility-of-debt gone egregiously negative) so they are likely to be unable to control interest rates and non-speculative, non-FOMO legacy (i.e. Satoshi’s immutable protocol, not BTC, BCH nor BSV!) Bitcoin should finally start mooning on fear (as gold does) as the monetary reset looms.
The altcoins (all that FOMO, speculative dogesh8t, including the altcoin Bitcoin Core which was created by the corruption on the 2017 N.Y. Agreement soft fork…soft forks are deceptions and must eventually hard fork/f-ck) will have declined for the first time to well below their prior cycle ATHs indicating the end of their half-decade bull market (all except LTC launched ~2017). The proof-of-work altcoins will be destroyed by repeated, difficulty-bomb non-readjustment attacks. The proof-of-stake sh8tcoins will be attacked by government regulation as they are folded into the orbit of the central bank digital currencies’ (CBDCs’) dominion — as TPTB try to enslave us in totalitarian, negative interest rates aka capital controls by trying to end the free market with their futile, diabolical “Great Reset” collateral damage wrecking ball.
ETH may form a bearish double-top and/or decade long, bearish, H&S pattern projecting to $0. All cryptocurrencies other than legacy Bitcoin to $0 whilst Satoshi’s Phoenix rises to $1 million.
ETH:BTC appears to be dying. It peaked in 2017 and now is dead cat rallying in a bearish rising channel or wedge.
Ditto ADA:BTC:
Comment:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=57iQch4O...
@OPTICALARTdotCOM the red line may be the thin one parallel to and above the thick one! You arbitrary chose the lower one. You are confused by the double top. 14:32 {juncture in the aforelinked video} When the DXY bottomed December 2019, the price did not come all the down to your red line. I expect the DXY to top out 113 for a decline until end of the year. The proper red line is the thin one up higher than your thick one. So Bitcoin does not need to make a lower low before it rallies to $60k by December. The price will come down to your thin red line but not until Q4 2023. And yes it will be a very low price. Cryptocurrency is dying.
Follow-up…
www.youtube.com/watch?v=57iQch4O...
@OPTICALARTdotCOM notice also that the DXY already rallied half-way to the 113 top target off recent lows, but BTC has barely declined. So there is no way that the move to 113 will bring BTC down to your ridiculous 7k or 10k target. I don’t even see the momentum for a lower low than the June low, which is why I mentioned to note that in December 2019 Bitcoin did not move down to your diagrammed red line as the DXY moved to an extreme (actually a low but you argued that visits to the red line also occur on DXY bottoms as well as tops). So those observations taken together with my assertion that the thin, upper red line is that actual line of confluence we should be paying attention to, I have concluded that Bitcoin bottomed in June and the incoming retest will bottom on your cyan (i.e. blue) colored Fib circle ~18 – 19k. Multiple indicators flashed that the Bitcoin bottom is behind us already, including the Pi Cycle, Guppy, miner capitulation hash ribbons, the log RSI bullish cross, various MA crosses as detailed by Steve aka Crypto Crew University, etc.. I do have a published trading (view) idea which shows the repeating pattern for why Bitcoin will bounce to a “triple top” (actually a quadruple or double-double top) before another flash crash late in 2023 back down to your thin, red line. The posited Q4 2023 flash crash will likely be cause by Russia invading Lithuania to take the Sulwaki Corridor (which will invoke the NATO mutual defense treaty).
@OPTICALARTdotCOM the red line may be the thin one parallel to and above the thick one! You arbitrary chose the lower one. You are confused by the double top. 14:32 {juncture in the aforelinked video} When the DXY bottomed December 2019, the price did not come all the down to your red line. I expect the DXY to top out 113 for a decline until end of the year. The proper red line is the thin one up higher than your thick one. So Bitcoin does not need to make a lower low before it rallies to $60k by December. The price will come down to your thin red line but not until Q4 2023. And yes it will be a very low price. Cryptocurrency is dying.
Follow-up…
www.youtube.com/watch?v=57iQch4O...
@OPTICALARTdotCOM notice also that the DXY already rallied half-way to the 113 top target off recent lows, but BTC has barely declined. So there is no way that the move to 113 will bring BTC down to your ridiculous 7k or 10k target. I don’t even see the momentum for a lower low than the June low, which is why I mentioned to note that in December 2019 Bitcoin did not move down to your diagrammed red line as the DXY moved to an extreme (actually a low but you argued that visits to the red line also occur on DXY bottoms as well as tops). So those observations taken together with my assertion that the thin, upper red line is that actual line of confluence we should be paying attention to, I have concluded that Bitcoin bottomed in June and the incoming retest will bottom on your cyan (i.e. blue) colored Fib circle ~18 – 19k. Multiple indicators flashed that the Bitcoin bottom is behind us already, including the Pi Cycle, Guppy, miner capitulation hash ribbons, the log RSI bullish cross, various MA crosses as detailed by Steve aka Crypto Crew University, etc.. I do have a published trading (view) idea which shows the repeating pattern for why Bitcoin will bounce to a “triple top” (actually a quadruple or double-double top) before another flash crash late in 2023 back down to your thin, red line. The posited Q4 2023 flash crash will likely be cause by Russia invading Lithuania to take the Sulwaki Corridor (which will invoke the NATO mutual defense treaty).
Comment:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=wX4_Ibxe...
11:24 {juncture in the above linked video} K-dub you should read 150 IQ Curtis Yarvin’s recent Graymirror blog entitled Is Crypto Still Fungible? Unfortunately Ethereum’s account balances design (instead of UTXO) creates this problem where even if you do not spend an input, all of your balance is polluted by someone unsolicited sending an input to your account.
11:24 {juncture in the above linked video} K-dub you should read 150 IQ Curtis Yarvin’s recent Graymirror blog entitled Is Crypto Still Fungible? Unfortunately Ethereum’s account balances design (instead of UTXO) creates this problem where even if you do not spend an input, all of your balance is polluted by someone unsolicited sending an input to your account.
Comment:
I highly recommend Game of Trades’ recent videos (listen on double-speed), which are all consistent with my recent summary of my price expectations. (Note the titles are click bait and the points he makes are opposite of the titles)
THIS Signal Has Triggered Major Historical SP500 Crashes | Markets Will Price In a Fed PIVOT First (Aug 24, 2022)
THIS Has Triggered ALL Great Market Collapses In the Last 30 Years | Bear Market or All-Time Highs? (Aug 22, 2022)
Savings are at 2007 Levels. | SP500 is Set for a Massive Bear Market Rally or a MEGA Short-Squeeze? (Aug 19, 2022)
SP500 REJECTING Off a Major Line of Resistance | This is Going to SHAKE Investors Out (Aug 17, 2022) ← covers market sentiment
SP500 is Breaking a PIVOTAL Resistance Level | THIS Will Lead to a Massive Bull Run (Aug 15, 2022) ← momentum has shifted to bullish above 100 daily MA
I commented on the aforelinked video:
Oil will go above $187 but not until later in 2023 or 2024 after Russia invades Lithuania to take the Sulwaki Corridor. There is time enough for a rally to ATHs no later than Q1 2023. Meantime the interest rate driven demand destruction will help bring CPI down.
The Moment We’ve All Been Waiting For: Massive SP500 Dead Cat Bounce or a V-Shaped Recovery? (Aug 12, 2022) ← the Wall of Worry will leave most people behind as this retest is not bought by the fearful
This is a WORSE Reading than the Bottom of 2008 | Investors are NOT Positioned Correctly (Aug 10, 2022)
Nobody Understands This SP500 Rally | Investors About to Get CRUSHED Missing This Opportunity (Aug 8, 2022)
THIS Signal Has Triggered Major Historical SP500 Crashes | Markets Will Price In a Fed PIVOT First (Aug 24, 2022)
THIS Has Triggered ALL Great Market Collapses In the Last 30 Years | Bear Market or All-Time Highs? (Aug 22, 2022)
Savings are at 2007 Levels. | SP500 is Set for a Massive Bear Market Rally or a MEGA Short-Squeeze? (Aug 19, 2022)
SP500 REJECTING Off a Major Line of Resistance | This is Going to SHAKE Investors Out (Aug 17, 2022) ← covers market sentiment
SP500 is Breaking a PIVOTAL Resistance Level | THIS Will Lead to a Massive Bull Run (Aug 15, 2022) ← momentum has shifted to bullish above 100 daily MA
I commented on the aforelinked video:
Oil will go above $187 but not until later in 2023 or 2024 after Russia invades Lithuania to take the Sulwaki Corridor. There is time enough for a rally to ATHs no later than Q1 2023. Meantime the interest rate driven demand destruction will help bring CPI down.
The Moment We’ve All Been Waiting For: Massive SP500 Dead Cat Bounce or a V-Shaped Recovery? (Aug 12, 2022) ← the Wall of Worry will leave most people behind as this retest is not bought by the fearful
This is a WORSE Reading than the Bottom of 2008 | Investors are NOT Positioned Correctly (Aug 10, 2022)
Nobody Understands This SP500 Rally | Investors About to Get CRUSHED Missing This Opportunity (Aug 8, 2022)
Comment:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=javNu2qX...
> “@S. Moore so everything but Bitcoin will get rekt”
@Viserion even BTC wil be REKT because it was soft forked in 2017. Only the immutable legacy Bitcoin protocol will survive and it currently has no ticker. You obtain it by spending BTC (from yourself) to (yourself to your) address that begins with 1, not 3 nor bc1. I have published all the game theory and technical details on why this is so but YT will not allow me to link it here nor mention how to find.
> “@S. Moore so everything but Bitcoin will get rekt”
@Viserion even BTC wil be REKT because it was soft forked in 2017. Only the immutable legacy Bitcoin protocol will survive and it currently has no ticker. You obtain it by spending BTC (from yourself) to (yourself to your) address that begins with 1, not 3 nor bc1. I have published all the game theory and technical details on why this is so but YT will not allow me to link it here nor mention how to find.
Comment:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=javNu2qX...
> “Pow ain't the answer either”
@BF Flyer well proof-of-work is the solution for a global reserve currency that the powers-that-be behind the curtain will ultimately enslave the world with as per the Biblical Seven Hills where all the wealth will be concentrated in the end time (Jerusalem or Rome?). Proof-of-stake is doomed so we are all doomed.
> “Pow ain't the answer either”
@BF Flyer well proof-of-work is the solution for a global reserve currency that the powers-that-be behind the curtain will ultimately enslave the world with as per the Biblical Seven Hills where all the wealth will be concentrated in the end time (Jerusalem or Rome?). Proof-of-stake is doomed so we are all doomed.
Comment:
Buried in the Fed minutes they are already hinting at a pivot to dovish jawboning. It is 2019 repeating as I previously posited.
youtu.be/1jn0TDmNffQ?t=433
(Rate hikes will end sooner than markets think: Rosenberg)
youtu.be/1jn0TDmNffQ?t=433
(Rate hikes will end sooner than markets think: Rosenberg)
Comment:
www.tradingview.com/...-following-earnings/
@Steadyeddy69, over 95% of Nasdaq stocks were above their 50 daily MA — a startling shift in that measure of market bullishness from virtually none being above that breadth metric at the June bottom. Yet only 45% of market participants were positioned bullish on this rally (and probably even less now on the “last chance to board the train” pullback underway). Although savings rates are declining, that’s a lagging indicator because accumulated cash is very high and has to go somewhere. The market is overpriced w.r.t. to sour forward Q3 estimates (to be reported in Q4) but that along with expectations of labor market recession are more lagging indicators. Whereas price (as distinct from monetary) inflation expectations are a 3 to 4 months leading indicator and they turned down in May until just recently starting to turn back up. This market wants to rally back to ATHs because the FUD selloff was driven by imminent recession fears stoked by inflation continuing to rise, yet a GDP recession is not a labor recession which come on a lag some months from now. Meantime the threat of future labor recession is causing commodities to be priced downwards due to expected demand destruction, notwithstanding the trend in future inflation expectations as a leading indicator trending back up especially after Biden announced a massive ‘stealth’ stimulus via student loan abatements and abeyance (which might just end up FOMOing into meme stocks like AMC). And the thing with FOMO (and the memory effect of those who lost over the past decades by not buying the dips) is that once it starts to rip then everyone eventually piles in whether they are early or buy the top. Of course everything will be overpriced and irrationally priced w.r.t. to earnings because that’s a feature of a the Mises crack-up boom that has been engineered by the Fed and Bolsheviks at the helm. Nvidia will be considered “cheap” as one of the few lone assets (and the only major semiconductor focused with massive growth potential in the cloud) “underpriced” in this insanity paradigm. The market will invent narratives to justify pumping it. When price inflation paused in Q1 the markets attempted to rally but crashed anew when it was clear CPI was still increasing. If CPI has indeed peaked until winter then June was the bottom of this expected risk-on rally to ATHs over next few months. Remember that we had the same situation in 2019 where all the Fed had to do was jawbone slightly more dovishly and the markets came off the December 2018 low to new ATHs. And there’s a lot more cash floating around now after the massive corona dump stimulus. Timing of leading and lagging indicators along with the level of insanity of a crack-up boom must be factored into the analysis.
@Steadyeddy69, over 95% of Nasdaq stocks were above their 50 daily MA — a startling shift in that measure of market bullishness from virtually none being above that breadth metric at the June bottom. Yet only 45% of market participants were positioned bullish on this rally (and probably even less now on the “last chance to board the train” pullback underway). Although savings rates are declining, that’s a lagging indicator because accumulated cash is very high and has to go somewhere. The market is overpriced w.r.t. to sour forward Q3 estimates (to be reported in Q4) but that along with expectations of labor market recession are more lagging indicators. Whereas price (as distinct from monetary) inflation expectations are a 3 to 4 months leading indicator and they turned down in May until just recently starting to turn back up. This market wants to rally back to ATHs because the FUD selloff was driven by imminent recession fears stoked by inflation continuing to rise, yet a GDP recession is not a labor recession which come on a lag some months from now. Meantime the threat of future labor recession is causing commodities to be priced downwards due to expected demand destruction, notwithstanding the trend in future inflation expectations as a leading indicator trending back up especially after Biden announced a massive ‘stealth’ stimulus via student loan abatements and abeyance (which might just end up FOMOing into meme stocks like AMC). And the thing with FOMO (and the memory effect of those who lost over the past decades by not buying the dips) is that once it starts to rip then everyone eventually piles in whether they are early or buy the top. Of course everything will be overpriced and irrationally priced w.r.t. to earnings because that’s a feature of a the Mises crack-up boom that has been engineered by the Fed and Bolsheviks at the helm. Nvidia will be considered “cheap” as one of the few lone assets (and the only major semiconductor focused with massive growth potential in the cloud) “underpriced” in this insanity paradigm. The market will invent narratives to justify pumping it. When price inflation paused in Q1 the markets attempted to rally but crashed anew when it was clear CPI was still increasing. If CPI has indeed peaked until winter then June was the bottom of this expected risk-on rally to ATHs over next few months. Remember that we had the same situation in 2019 where all the Fed had to do was jawbone slightly more dovishly and the markets came off the December 2018 low to new ATHs. And there’s a lot more cash floating around now after the massive corona dump stimulus. Timing of leading and lagging indicators along with the level of insanity of a crack-up boom must be factored into the analysis.
Comment:
www.tradingview.com/...-following-earnings/
Additionally the same thesis applies in spades to the crypto sector. Bitcoin priced still near its June low is going to look mighty attractive (especially it has no earnings thus can’t be “overpriced” w.r.t. to earnings) when 95+% of the Nasdaq is already above their individual 50 DMAs. Bitcoin lagged coming off the December 2018 lows then suddenly catapulted after the other risk-on markets had reestablished a bullish footing. I posit the fractal of 2019 is essentially repeating. The Austrian economics crack-up boom is accelerating. The sh8t is going to get even more bizarre and diabolical than the cerveza sickness pLandemic come Q4 2023! Can you say WW3? Can you say 666-like central bank digital currencies, capito{a}l controls, forced rationing and no more private bank accounts? My research is deep.
Additionally the same thesis applies in spades to the crypto sector. Bitcoin priced still near its June low is going to look mighty attractive (especially it has no earnings thus can’t be “overpriced” w.r.t. to earnings) when 95+% of the Nasdaq is already above their individual 50 DMAs. Bitcoin lagged coming off the December 2018 lows then suddenly catapulted after the other risk-on markets had reestablished a bullish footing. I posit the fractal of 2019 is essentially repeating. The Austrian economics crack-up boom is accelerating. The sh8t is going to get even more bizarre and diabolical than the cerveza sickness pLandemic come Q4 2023! Can you say WW3? Can you say 666-like central bank digital currencies, capito{a}l controls, forced rationing and no more private bank accounts? My research is deep.
Comment:
youtu.be/Nt2aoZX8k-0
(Warning: Pay Attention to This UNEXPECTED Shift.)
www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nt2aoZX8...
Agreed the H1 2022 “good news was bad news,” has shifted for the smart money. The recent tectonic shift from no breadth above their 50 daily period moving averages at the June lows, to 95% above on this recent rally indicates the dominant market psychology has reverted to the multi-decade memory of the pain of not buying the dips.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nt2aoZX8...
> “Kevin is unironically at the "new paradigm" stage of the investment cycle. Massive top signal.”
Welcome to the Austrian economics crack-up boom.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nt2aoZX8...
> > Mate we never had a inflation problem between 2009 - 2019 coz we never printed trillions on hand outs, also the fed balance sheet has trillions on it before it slows down hikes.
>
> That's when QE started
@Meet Kevin unfortunately most people seem to be unaware that the supply boom was the peace dividend from the fall of Communism. That peace dividend is reverting now, but we’ll get a brief respite for some months until there’s escalation as Russia takes the Sulwaki Corridor after Lithuania broke their contracts for passage.
(Warning: Pay Attention to This UNEXPECTED Shift.)
www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nt2aoZX8...
Agreed the H1 2022 “good news was bad news,” has shifted for the smart money. The recent tectonic shift from no breadth above their 50 daily period moving averages at the June lows, to 95% above on this recent rally indicates the dominant market psychology has reverted to the multi-decade memory of the pain of not buying the dips.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nt2aoZX8...
> “Kevin is unironically at the "new paradigm" stage of the investment cycle. Massive top signal.”
Welcome to the Austrian economics crack-up boom.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nt2aoZX8...
> > Mate we never had a inflation problem between 2009 - 2019 coz we never printed trillions on hand outs, also the fed balance sheet has trillions on it before it slows down hikes.
>
> That's when QE started
@Meet Kevin unfortunately most people seem to be unaware that the supply boom was the peace dividend from the fall of Communism. That peace dividend is reverting now, but we’ll get a brief respite for some months until there’s escalation as Russia takes the Sulwaki Corridor after Lithuania broke their contracts for passage.
Comment:
How did the surreptitious Bitcoin creator know that Western governments would self-immolate and so brazenly abuse their power that the world would embrace Bitcoin as an unbiased, trustless, permissionless reserve currency to discipline/spank the nation-states as John Nash had proposed in his Ideal Money manifesto (Jstor)? Perhaps Rothschild’s Economist Magazine 1988 Phoenix cover story, the double-spaces after periods 1999 usergroup description of Bitcoin, the 2008 pre-release/Jan 2009 launch and the 2018 20k peak mainstream awareness? That ten year cycle implies incoming 2028 monetary reset?
Profoundly, Bruce Fenton doesn’t seem to realize that secularism doesn’t really exist (c.f. the religion of the radical left and their lamestream media propaganda engine) and government can’t exist without Weberian power to enslave constituents in fiat money. Creative destruction chaos incoming!
US Senate Candidate Bruce Fenton: Get the government out of the money business. We need to separate money and state just like we separated church and state.
Profoundly, Bruce Fenton doesn’t seem to realize that secularism doesn’t really exist (c.f. the religion of the radical left and their lamestream media propaganda engine) and government can’t exist without Weberian power to enslave constituents in fiat money. Creative destruction chaos incoming!
US Senate Candidate Bruce Fenton: Get the government out of the money business. We need to separate money and state just like we separated church and state.
Comment:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=TcmNgC08...
> “@S. Moore And a word about market breadth from Charles Schwab (Aug 22):
> At the recent high, about 93% of stocks within the S&P 500 were trading above their 50-day moving averages—fitting the definition of a "breadth thrust." What makes it unique relative to others in history, however, is that the Federal Reserve is in an aggressive interest rate hiking campaign. Other than in February 2019 when the Fed was on hold, the nine other breadth surges off lows since 1975 all occurred during Fed easing campaigns (hat tip to our friends at Strategas for that stat). In addition, all 10 prior breadth surges (including 2019's) were accompanied by a positive 2y/10y yield spread. As most readers know, that yield spread is decidedly negative (inverted) today.
>
> Are you still sure you should use this indicator and ignore a deteriorating economy, yield spread, increasing downward forward earnings revisions, and QT?”
@Christopher L I elaborated on my reasoning on my public trading (view). For example, the Fed was not entirely paused in 2019 as they were still reigning in their balance sheet. The Yardeni Research document (Chronology of Fed’s Quantitative Easing & Tightening) I cited shows how the Fed gradually jawboned from hawkish (from 2017 to late 2018) to gradually and only slightly more dovish in early 2019 about the future possibility of being willing to eventually moderate that reduction of the balance sheet. By November 2019 they had entirely paused and the markets made one more surge higher before the corona dump. Albeit interest rates are rising now and a labor recession is approaching in 2023, the massive injection of monetary policy since 2020 is a massive hoard of cash sitting on the sidelines waiting to FOMO back in to risk on. The U.S. is at maximum employment and inflation is raging but declining. Inflation expectations leading by 3 to 4 months and they started dropping like a rock in May and only bounced from much lower levels in August. So we have a bullish few months ahead. Although savings rates are declining, accumulated cash is high. The DXY has massive, bearish RSI divergence and every time it has peaked, Bitcoin has bottomed. Game of Trades is correct that we are too early in the interest rate raising cycle to crash. As was the case in prior recessions, the markets make new ATHs while the Fed is raising, and do not crash until the Fed starts easing.
@Christopher L I have a model for Bitcoin on my public trading (view) which has a massive crash in late 2023 bottoming by Q1 2024 below 7k. Also note that each of the recent S&P major crashes have been increasing by a factor of 1.75. Thus the next one (ostensibly in Q4 2023) will be a -63% flash crash. So back up to a new ATH no later than Q1 2023 then the Fed is forced to moderate by worsening economy then another black swan event akin to the corona dump before the end of 2023. I bet it will be Russia invading Lithuania to take control of the Sulwaki Corridor after Lithuania violated their contracts for passage due to the intentional globalist sanctions as Rothschild is ushering in his legacy Bitcoin as the new world’s reserve currency per the model presented in John Nash’s Ideal Money manifesto (Jstor).
www.youtube.com/watch?v=TcmNgC08...
> “@S. Moore One more thing to add. Since you like contrarian indicators (I do too) consider this: The Hulbert Nasdaq Newsletter Sentiment Index, compiled by US analyst Mark Hulbert, shows that bullishness among a subset of short-term traders who concentrate on the technology-focused Nasdaq market has reached an historical extreme.”
@Christopher L indeed the Nasdaq is overcooked and Bitcoin is undercooked. Expecting them to trade places on the next leg up as was the case after February 2019.
> “@S. Moore And a word about market breadth from Charles Schwab (Aug 22):
> At the recent high, about 93% of stocks within the S&P 500 were trading above their 50-day moving averages—fitting the definition of a "breadth thrust." What makes it unique relative to others in history, however, is that the Federal Reserve is in an aggressive interest rate hiking campaign. Other than in February 2019 when the Fed was on hold, the nine other breadth surges off lows since 1975 all occurred during Fed easing campaigns (hat tip to our friends at Strategas for that stat). In addition, all 10 prior breadth surges (including 2019's) were accompanied by a positive 2y/10y yield spread. As most readers know, that yield spread is decidedly negative (inverted) today.
>
> Are you still sure you should use this indicator and ignore a deteriorating economy, yield spread, increasing downward forward earnings revisions, and QT?”
@Christopher L I elaborated on my reasoning on my public trading (view). For example, the Fed was not entirely paused in 2019 as they were still reigning in their balance sheet. The Yardeni Research document (Chronology of Fed’s Quantitative Easing & Tightening) I cited shows how the Fed gradually jawboned from hawkish (from 2017 to late 2018) to gradually and only slightly more dovish in early 2019 about the future possibility of being willing to eventually moderate that reduction of the balance sheet. By November 2019 they had entirely paused and the markets made one more surge higher before the corona dump. Albeit interest rates are rising now and a labor recession is approaching in 2023, the massive injection of monetary policy since 2020 is a massive hoard of cash sitting on the sidelines waiting to FOMO back in to risk on. The U.S. is at maximum employment and inflation is raging but declining. Inflation expectations leading by 3 to 4 months and they started dropping like a rock in May and only bounced from much lower levels in August. So we have a bullish few months ahead. Although savings rates are declining, accumulated cash is high. The DXY has massive, bearish RSI divergence and every time it has peaked, Bitcoin has bottomed. Game of Trades is correct that we are too early in the interest rate raising cycle to crash. As was the case in prior recessions, the markets make new ATHs while the Fed is raising, and do not crash until the Fed starts easing.
@Christopher L I have a model for Bitcoin on my public trading (view) which has a massive crash in late 2023 bottoming by Q1 2024 below 7k. Also note that each of the recent S&P major crashes have been increasing by a factor of 1.75. Thus the next one (ostensibly in Q4 2023) will be a -63% flash crash. So back up to a new ATH no later than Q1 2023 then the Fed is forced to moderate by worsening economy then another black swan event akin to the corona dump before the end of 2023. I bet it will be Russia invading Lithuania to take control of the Sulwaki Corridor after Lithuania violated their contracts for passage due to the intentional globalist sanctions as Rothschild is ushering in his legacy Bitcoin as the new world’s reserve currency per the model presented in John Nash’s Ideal Money manifesto (Jstor).
www.youtube.com/watch?v=TcmNgC08...
> “@S. Moore One more thing to add. Since you like contrarian indicators (I do too) consider this: The Hulbert Nasdaq Newsletter Sentiment Index, compiled by US analyst Mark Hulbert, shows that bullishness among a subset of short-term traders who concentrate on the technology-focused Nasdaq market has reached an historical extreme.”
@Christopher L indeed the Nasdaq is overcooked and Bitcoin is undercooked. Expecting them to trade places on the next leg up as was the case after February 2019.
Comment:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=TcmNgC08...
> @S. Moore Cherry picking benchmarks can be dangerous. We have deteriorating economic conditions - consumers using credit card debt - now up to its highest level in years, major layoffs coming in, a growing inventory overhang, housing purchases going down, GDP growth going negative, major commodities still expensive (no change yesterday in spite of the stock market) and the FED promise to keep tightening. None of this was true when the last ATH was reached last year. Worry is about what might happen; these things are happening. And as far as pundits go the only two people I put any faith into are Michael Burry and Ray Dalio who have a long history of correct calls (long and short) and put their money where their mouth is. Ray Dalio runs the one of the largest and most successful hedge funds in the world; he is up for 2022. He uses very effective macro models and is rarely pessimistic. Today, he is negative on the US economy and the stock market.
>
> "The pundits spun this as all doom and gloom" Really? All I heard about during the rally to 4300 was about the FED pivot; not doom and gloom. Many pundits saying "if we have a recession it will not be that deep", "soft landing", etc. That does not sound very gloomy to me. Does an increased probability (from 50% to 60%) of 75 basis points in September move a market down like this? Or was because the market is starting to get convinced that Powell is not going to back down (early) from tightening?
>
> And one more thing -- in 2018 the FED was raising interest rates and reducing balance sheet assets -- tightening. The stock market underperformed that year starting at 2700, ending at 2500 with an average price around 2700 for the year. Got's analysis was not even correct.
@Christopher L so you really think with the majority of the market so bearish doom and gloom expectations that the markets will crash? Markets do the opposite of what the herd expects. This Powell FUD was to scare the weak hands into selling into the strong hands. I don’t think the breadth thrust was expectations of an imminent Fed pivot. Heck the market has been clearly pricing in 3 more interest rate increases in 2023 from the Fed. That is a strawman narrative I see all over the lamestream media, employed to scare the herd. The breadth surge was cash FOMOing back in as the smart money had been accumulating as every dip off the June bottom was bought up. Now we reset by scaring the f-ck out of the weak hands and repeat for the next leg up. This pullback is forming the right shoulder of what appears to maybe be a massive bullish, inverted H&S on the SPX. And I had been expecting that to form for the past weeks once I had identified the neckline to coincide roughly with the 200 daily MA.
@Christopher L inverted yield curves are an early signal that correspond with final bull trap moves to ATHs. The 2018 decline as the Fed was raising has already completed in 2022 as the market priced it all in rapidly perhaps because of the negative GDP Q1 figure scaring the f-ck out of everyone and then the capitulation in June with the rebounding CPI. Thus I posit the 2019 cycle already started as of the June bottom. Heck we have half dozen indicators that have flashed the Bitcoin bottom already. There was a daily bullish RSI divergence on the June Bitcoin bottom on the CME (not on spot price). The stock markets also had a daily (and weekly?) bullish RSI divergence on the June bottom. Ostensibly GoT’s timing mistake (as was him being too early bullish in 2022) is he didn’t wait for the final capitulation. I was warning in comments before May 2022 that the RSI was still too high.
@Christopher L yes the economy will start to roll over by 2023 but in the meantime there is a massive cash hoard waiting to FOMO back in once the lamestream media narrative pivots again. Maybe the media was pitching the Fed pivot thesis recently (I wasn’t seeing it but I do not watch TV) but fact remains is the futures pricing markets had already priced in the incoming Fed rate hikes and there was already a significant probability of a 75 basis hike for Sept. So nothing has changed since Powell’s FUD other than (perhaps an ephemeral spike in the probability of a 75 basis increase and) the media spooking the sheep. Did you know a herd of sheep actually keeled over and died after being scared by some barking dogs? 🤣 Powell and Mester both said that if inflation continues to come down they will moderate their tone (which is repeating what occurred in 2019 and besides I have a repeating broadening wedge for Bitcoin which had alerted me in summer 2021 that 2019 would repeat in 2022 so I had been predicting the double top and crash to $20k since summer 2021 and all publicly shared on my trading (view)). And the precipitous drop in inflation expectation since May tells us that the inflation will continue to drop over the next few months until at least Nov/Dec. These current dead cat bounces for commodities, Treasuries and dollar all formed bearish RSI divergences. The Euro can’t go straight to zero in one move. Euro vs dollar parity is a logical level for a dead cat bounce for a few months.
@Christopher L the recession is likely to be soft in most of 2023 (after we get through the rough winter in Europe without natural gas) only requiring a slight moderation from the Fed to keep the markets buoyed (as was the case in Q4 2019) and then comes the repeating black swan, probably an act of war that invokes the NATO mutual defense treaty that officially launches WW3. China will force the U.S. to fight on two fronts by blockading Taiwan eventually as well. Between China and N. Korea that’s a 2.5 million troops. I wonder if China and Russia have the lift capacity to transport them for an Alaskan invasion?
> @S. Moore Cherry picking benchmarks can be dangerous. We have deteriorating economic conditions - consumers using credit card debt - now up to its highest level in years, major layoffs coming in, a growing inventory overhang, housing purchases going down, GDP growth going negative, major commodities still expensive (no change yesterday in spite of the stock market) and the FED promise to keep tightening. None of this was true when the last ATH was reached last year. Worry is about what might happen; these things are happening. And as far as pundits go the only two people I put any faith into are Michael Burry and Ray Dalio who have a long history of correct calls (long and short) and put their money where their mouth is. Ray Dalio runs the one of the largest and most successful hedge funds in the world; he is up for 2022. He uses very effective macro models and is rarely pessimistic. Today, he is negative on the US economy and the stock market.
>
> "The pundits spun this as all doom and gloom" Really? All I heard about during the rally to 4300 was about the FED pivot; not doom and gloom. Many pundits saying "if we have a recession it will not be that deep", "soft landing", etc. That does not sound very gloomy to me. Does an increased probability (from 50% to 60%) of 75 basis points in September move a market down like this? Or was because the market is starting to get convinced that Powell is not going to back down (early) from tightening?
>
> And one more thing -- in 2018 the FED was raising interest rates and reducing balance sheet assets -- tightening. The stock market underperformed that year starting at 2700, ending at 2500 with an average price around 2700 for the year. Got's analysis was not even correct.
@Christopher L so you really think with the majority of the market so bearish doom and gloom expectations that the markets will crash? Markets do the opposite of what the herd expects. This Powell FUD was to scare the weak hands into selling into the strong hands. I don’t think the breadth thrust was expectations of an imminent Fed pivot. Heck the market has been clearly pricing in 3 more interest rate increases in 2023 from the Fed. That is a strawman narrative I see all over the lamestream media, employed to scare the herd. The breadth surge was cash FOMOing back in as the smart money had been accumulating as every dip off the June bottom was bought up. Now we reset by scaring the f-ck out of the weak hands and repeat for the next leg up. This pullback is forming the right shoulder of what appears to maybe be a massive bullish, inverted H&S on the SPX. And I had been expecting that to form for the past weeks once I had identified the neckline to coincide roughly with the 200 daily MA.
@Christopher L inverted yield curves are an early signal that correspond with final bull trap moves to ATHs. The 2018 decline as the Fed was raising has already completed in 2022 as the market priced it all in rapidly perhaps because of the negative GDP Q1 figure scaring the f-ck out of everyone and then the capitulation in June with the rebounding CPI. Thus I posit the 2019 cycle already started as of the June bottom. Heck we have half dozen indicators that have flashed the Bitcoin bottom already. There was a daily bullish RSI divergence on the June Bitcoin bottom on the CME (not on spot price). The stock markets also had a daily (and weekly?) bullish RSI divergence on the June bottom. Ostensibly GoT’s timing mistake (as was him being too early bullish in 2022) is he didn’t wait for the final capitulation. I was warning in comments before May 2022 that the RSI was still too high.
@Christopher L yes the economy will start to roll over by 2023 but in the meantime there is a massive cash hoard waiting to FOMO back in once the lamestream media narrative pivots again. Maybe the media was pitching the Fed pivot thesis recently (I wasn’t seeing it but I do not watch TV) but fact remains is the futures pricing markets had already priced in the incoming Fed rate hikes and there was already a significant probability of a 75 basis hike for Sept. So nothing has changed since Powell’s FUD other than (perhaps an ephemeral spike in the probability of a 75 basis increase and) the media spooking the sheep. Did you know a herd of sheep actually keeled over and died after being scared by some barking dogs? 🤣 Powell and Mester both said that if inflation continues to come down they will moderate their tone (which is repeating what occurred in 2019 and besides I have a repeating broadening wedge for Bitcoin which had alerted me in summer 2021 that 2019 would repeat in 2022 so I had been predicting the double top and crash to $20k since summer 2021 and all publicly shared on my trading (view)). And the precipitous drop in inflation expectation since May tells us that the inflation will continue to drop over the next few months until at least Nov/Dec. These current dead cat bounces for commodities, Treasuries and dollar all formed bearish RSI divergences. The Euro can’t go straight to zero in one move. Euro vs dollar parity is a logical level for a dead cat bounce for a few months.
@Christopher L the recession is likely to be soft in most of 2023 (after we get through the rough winter in Europe without natural gas) only requiring a slight moderation from the Fed to keep the markets buoyed (as was the case in Q4 2019) and then comes the repeating black swan, probably an act of war that invokes the NATO mutual defense treaty that officially launches WW3. China will force the U.S. to fight on two fronts by blockading Taiwan eventually as well. Between China and N. Korea that’s a 2.5 million troops. I wonder if China and Russia have the lift capacity to transport them for an Alaskan invasion?
Comment:
> “Game of Trades is correct that we are too early in the interest rate raising cycle to crash. As was the case in prior recessions, the markets make new ATHs while the Fed is raising, and do not crash until the Fed starts easing.”
MUST WATCH: youtu.be/TcmNgC08fX0
MUST WATCH: youtu.be/TcmNgC08fX0
Comment:
Discussion with the mathematician:
www.tradingview.com/...ztZd9-Bullish-Futes/
It is always best to buy when we are maximally afraid it will go lower. Control emotions and make logical risk vs. reward decisions.
Half-dozen Bitcoin indicators have flashed the bottom and BTC is near to the bottom again. Ostensibly the massive FUD sell-off on Friday was purely emotional as nothing substantive changed in the Fed’s message — the market was already pricing in an additional 3 Fed funds hikes this year? The market had been rising on increasing FOMO as the price was leaving the train station; and as best as I can discern NOT primarily on expectations of Fed pivot before Q1 2023 — the FUD narrative pitched by the media to amplify the panic sell-off. Panic selloffs can be capitulation bottom confirmations — the bullish inverted H&S pattern forming on the S&P is not bearish pointing to new lows? The smart money ostensibly realizes (and/or the natural market dynamics confirms/materializes) that (per my numerous YT comments ← copy and paste the link as clicking the link does not seem to take me to the comments plural) market wipeouts do not historically occur until the labor recession starts which is not until the Fed starts easing. Cash savings accumulated from the 2020 stimulus is on the sidelines nervous about failing to “buy the f-cking dip” (BTFD). Consequently most people will end up buying the f-cking top 5200 – 5500, lol. Then with market crashing the Fed will be forced to ease and S&P back up to ~5900 before the -63% flash crash in Q3 to Q4 2023 or as late as Q1 2024 with the plausible event catalyst when Russia invades Lithuania. Ostensibly may be essentially 2019 repeating again yet with some fractal wave interference altering the structure perhaps as I have posited on my published ideas.
An outlier to our thesis of Sept highs is YTuber Eric Krown Crypto’s dubious model of arbitrarily chosen random variables (where is the comprehensive Chi-squared test for independence against all possible such arbitrarily chosen metrics?) for historical volatility expansion models on various time frames which is signaling that the expected massive incoming move will be to the downside if the 5-day stoch is below $21k and 2-day stoch is below $24k on the close Sunday (which they both were).
www.tradingview.com/...ztZd9-Bullish-Futes/
It is always best to buy when we are maximally afraid it will go lower. Control emotions and make logical risk vs. reward decisions.
Half-dozen Bitcoin indicators have flashed the bottom and BTC is near to the bottom again. Ostensibly the massive FUD sell-off on Friday was purely emotional as nothing substantive changed in the Fed’s message — the market was already pricing in an additional 3 Fed funds hikes this year? The market had been rising on increasing FOMO as the price was leaving the train station; and as best as I can discern NOT primarily on expectations of Fed pivot before Q1 2023 — the FUD narrative pitched by the media to amplify the panic sell-off. Panic selloffs can be capitulation bottom confirmations — the bullish inverted H&S pattern forming on the S&P is not bearish pointing to new lows? The smart money ostensibly realizes (and/or the natural market dynamics confirms/materializes) that (per my numerous YT comments ← copy and paste the link as clicking the link does not seem to take me to the comments plural) market wipeouts do not historically occur until the labor recession starts which is not until the Fed starts easing. Cash savings accumulated from the 2020 stimulus is on the sidelines nervous about failing to “buy the f-cking dip” (BTFD). Consequently most people will end up buying the f-cking top 5200 – 5500, lol. Then with market crashing the Fed will be forced to ease and S&P back up to ~5900 before the -63% flash crash in Q3 to Q4 2023 or as late as Q1 2024 with the plausible event catalyst when Russia invades Lithuania. Ostensibly may be essentially 2019 repeating again yet with some fractal wave interference altering the structure perhaps as I have posited on my published ideas.
An outlier to our thesis of Sept highs is YTuber Eric Krown Crypto’s dubious model of arbitrarily chosen random variables (where is the comprehensive Chi-squared test for independence against all possible such arbitrarily chosen metrics?) for historical volatility expansion models on various time frames which is signaling that the expected massive incoming move will be to the downside if the 5-day stoch is below $21k and 2-day stoch is below $24k on the close Sunday (which they both were).
Comment:
Remember two weeks ago I had posited his blue ring would be the bottom.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=6xaUnBio...
(My next heavy bitcoin long trade! its closer than you think. | OPTICALARTdotCOM)
So now after insulting me in your prior video at 7:05 you admit in this video I was probably correct that the bottom will likely be at the blue ring!
www.youtube.com/watch?v=6xaUnBio...
(My next heavy bitcoin long trade! its closer than you think. | OPTICALARTdotCOM)
So now after insulting me in your prior video at 7:05 you admit in this video I was probably correct that the bottom will likely be at the blue ring!
Comment:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=6xaUnBio...
> “Cassino ! the price nowadays is aleatory,manipulated . there is no reason to any pump ... but still happens anyway... Cassino !!!!”
Incorrect. There is every reason for it to pump. The S&P has a bullish inverted H&S pattern forming and this dip was wave 4 heading next up to the 4400 then coming back down again to form the right shoulder. OpticalArt is likely incorrect about it coming back down to his thick red line at ~$7.5k by Nov/Dec. Instead markets will counter intuitively head back up to new ATHs first by Q1 2023 at the latest. There will be another corona-like flash crash but that is coming late in 2023. And it will be a doozy probably -63% on the S&P and -95% on Bitcoin.
The mistake OpticalArt is likely making is that his upper thin red line is taking precedence for a triple top (or double-double actually) before the mega crash to his lower thick red trend line. What OpticalArt does not realize is that historically the recession mega crash does not come until the labor recession when the Fed starts to ease. The U.S. is still at maximum employment. Look back at prior recessions as Game of Trades has done and you see that there is a fake out rally to new ATHs when the Fed starts raising. We are essentially repeating 2019 again. I have explained this in great detail on my public trading view citing much data.
> “Cassino ! the price nowadays is aleatory,manipulated . there is no reason to any pump ... but still happens anyway... Cassino !!!!”
Incorrect. There is every reason for it to pump. The S&P has a bullish inverted H&S pattern forming and this dip was wave 4 heading next up to the 4400 then coming back down again to form the right shoulder. OpticalArt is likely incorrect about it coming back down to his thick red line at ~$7.5k by Nov/Dec. Instead markets will counter intuitively head back up to new ATHs first by Q1 2023 at the latest. There will be another corona-like flash crash but that is coming late in 2023. And it will be a doozy probably -63% on the S&P and -95% on Bitcoin.
The mistake OpticalArt is likely making is that his upper thin red line is taking precedence for a triple top (or double-double actually) before the mega crash to his lower thick red trend line. What OpticalArt does not realize is that historically the recession mega crash does not come until the labor recession when the Fed starts to ease. The U.S. is still at maximum employment. Look back at prior recessions as Game of Trades has done and you see that there is a fake out rally to new ATHs when the Fed starts raising. We are essentially repeating 2019 again. I have explained this in great detail on my public trading view citing much data.
Comment:
youtu.be/7FF31Ozn-PA?t=343
(Bitcoin price prediction! I charted the future and I see what's coming!)
www.youtube.com/watch?v=7FF31Ozn...
The DJIA is probably going to move up your next outer ring before coming down to much lower targets. The mega crash will be in 2023, not 2022. I explained why in my comments on your prior video. We will see if you are correct about ~7.5k by Nov/Dec. I explained in my comments on the prior video why that is not likely. Perhaps this recession could be different than the prior ones and the mega crash occurs while the Fed is raising and not yet in a labor recession? Never happened before. The mega crash always happens when the Fed starts easing because the labor recession has ensued. I am afraid you are going to end up with egg on your face.
(Bitcoin price prediction! I charted the future and I see what's coming!)
www.youtube.com/watch?v=7FF31Ozn...
The DJIA is probably going to move up your next outer ring before coming down to much lower targets. The mega crash will be in 2023, not 2022. I explained why in my comments on your prior video. We will see if you are correct about ~7.5k by Nov/Dec. I explained in my comments on the prior video why that is not likely. Perhaps this recession could be different than the prior ones and the mega crash occurs while the Fed is raising and not yet in a labor recession? Never happened before. The mega crash always happens when the Fed starts easing because the labor recession has ensued. I am afraid you are going to end up with egg on your face.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=8DMCV9ew...
(A Realistic #Bitcoin Prediction: How Long Will This Bear Market Last?)
I predict we will cross back up over the 20 stochastic RSI in September. Two things: 1) tie this into the 1-2-3 double bottoming pattern you noted in your other recent video (WILD #Bitcoin Theory NOBODY Is Talking About – This Could Change EVERYTHING), which correlates with my broadening wedge fractal thesis; and 2) note the horizontal level on the price candles when the stochastic RSI crosses below the and then back up over 20 level, which identifies a repeating fractal pattern. I have diagrammed this on my trading view.
P.S. after the spike in Sept or Oct back down we go for a lower low by Jan or Feb 2023 which will be the 3 on your 1-2-3, but a lower low this time because the posited broadening wedge is now larger than it was in H2 2019 and thus posited to be a dominating pattern.