Both scenarios posit that the shaded rectangle and the contained fractal pattern is repeating and growing in size.
One scenario posits that the duration of the current posited occurrence is more extended. Thus that the slingshot spike bounce back up to the posited overhead pinkish trend line (i.e. top of the posited megaphone, broadening wedge pattern) has not completed yet and is incoming in August/September. This scenario’s proportional duration and timing projects another decline into Q1 2023 and then a rally into Q4 2023. I guess this presumes an incoming short squeeze bear trap following by a multi-month erosion of bullishness as the Fed continues to tighten even if inflation abates for some months (election incoming in the U.S.) and the Fed funds rate increases decelerate a bit to 0.25 – 0.5 each. Then a recession by Q1 2023 forces the Fed to reverse or pause.
The other ghosted scenario posits that the bounce back up to the posited overhead pinkish trend line already completed. And that the decline into August/September is underway, possibly with some bounces interim. This scenario’s proportional duration and timing projects a rally into Q1 2023. I guess this presumes the Fed slows down or pauses the tightening by Q4 2022 because inflation will have peaked for 2022, enabling a rally.
Both scenarios may correspond to worsening economic conditions (due to these higher interest rates) by Q1 2023 that forces the Fed to reverse or pause, enabling a rally later in 2023. The first posited scenario may correspond to Bitcoin crashing again in 2024 as the Fed is trapped between $200+ oil and egregious stagflation with a severe recession in 2024. Whereas I suppose the ghosted scenario corresponds to legacy Bitcoin detaching from the other markets as it races to become a world reserve currency after the posited ANYONECANSPEND restoration (of the Nash equilibrium) “attack” — which might make sense if Pootin is forced to take the Sulwaki corridor in 2023 because the the Nazi Zelensky, West, NATO and Lithuania have basically declared war on Russia (forcing Pootin to invade as he had no other options anymore). Sadly Westerners only watch the lamestream, Ministry of Truth media (including the complicit Big Tech) which lies to them about everything, so they’re entirely clueless that for example Zelensky was shelling his own civilians and positioning his Nazi Asov battalions next to hospitals and civilian dwellings.
I actually think the ghosted scenario makes more sense, except that the upper, pinkish trend line is not entirely below all the topping action as it was in 2019 (yet possibly explicable in that fractals may only rhyme).
Note it is unclear the slope of and where to position the pinkish and light blue lines. Some calculations I have done on proportionality of the current decline have it going as low as ~$12k, but if the price declines below ~$13.9k then wave #4 will be completed and thus wave #5 would be a new ATH. And fractal structure may override vertical proportionality, as posited in the ghosted scenario where the posited, completed bounce back up was not from the posited bottom of the megaphone, broadening wedge. Thus I lean to price staying above $13.9k until after a rally back up to top of posited broadening wedge.
BTC is clearly due for a significant rally back up to top of posited broadening wedge no later than Q4 2022.
One scenario posits that the duration of the current posited occurrence is more extended. Thus that the slingshot spike bounce back up to the posited overhead pinkish trend line (i.e. top of the posited megaphone, broadening wedge pattern) has not completed yet and is incoming in August/September. This scenario’s proportional duration and timing projects another decline into Q1 2023 and then a rally into Q4 2023. I guess this presumes an incoming short squeeze bear trap following by a multi-month erosion of bullishness as the Fed continues to tighten even if inflation abates for some months (election incoming in the U.S.) and the Fed funds rate increases decelerate a bit to 0.25 – 0.5 each. Then a recession by Q1 2023 forces the Fed to reverse or pause.
The other ghosted scenario posits that the bounce back up to the posited overhead pinkish trend line already completed. And that the decline into August/September is underway, possibly with some bounces interim. This scenario’s proportional duration and timing projects a rally into Q1 2023. I guess this presumes the Fed slows down or pauses the tightening by Q4 2022 because inflation will have peaked for 2022, enabling a rally.
Both scenarios may correspond to worsening economic conditions (due to these higher interest rates) by Q1 2023 that forces the Fed to reverse or pause, enabling a rally later in 2023. The first posited scenario may correspond to Bitcoin crashing again in 2024 as the Fed is trapped between $200+ oil and egregious stagflation with a severe recession in 2024. Whereas I suppose the ghosted scenario corresponds to legacy Bitcoin detaching from the other markets as it races to become a world reserve currency after the posited ANYONECANSPEND restoration (of the Nash equilibrium) “attack” — which might make sense if Pootin is forced to take the Sulwaki corridor in 2023 because the the Nazi Zelensky, West, NATO and Lithuania have basically declared war on Russia (forcing Pootin to invade as he had no other options anymore). Sadly Westerners only watch the lamestream, Ministry of Truth media (including the complicit Big Tech) which lies to them about everything, so they’re entirely clueless that for example Zelensky was shelling his own civilians and positioning his Nazi Asov battalions next to hospitals and civilian dwellings.
I actually think the ghosted scenario makes more sense, except that the upper, pinkish trend line is not entirely below all the topping action as it was in 2019 (yet possibly explicable in that fractals may only rhyme).
Note it is unclear the slope of and where to position the pinkish and light blue lines. Some calculations I have done on proportionality of the current decline have it going as low as ~$12k, but if the price declines below ~$13.9k then wave #4 will be completed and thus wave #5 would be a new ATH. And fractal structure may override vertical proportionality, as posited in the ghosted scenario where the posited, completed bounce back up was not from the posited bottom of the megaphone, broadening wedge. Thus I lean to price staying above $13.9k until after a rally back up to top of posited broadening wedge.
BTC is clearly due for a significant rally back up to top of posited broadening wedge no later than Q4 2022.
Comment:
Also note for the yellow Elliot Wave structure that the terminal impulse condition created when yellow-labeled wave #2 retraced more than 61.8% of wave #1, did result in wave #4 retracing below the top of wave #1. So expect that to happen again whenever the current wave #4 completes.
Comment:
Monthly chart may add some insights. I added a green, arrow-tipped ray to show a potential decline below ~$13.9k with a subsequent new ATH. But the problem I have with that scenario is why would Bitcoin make a new ATH so soon, when the Fed is not going to be easing until the economy rolls over into a recession. Thus again I lean towards wave #4 will not complete now and price will remain above ~$13.9k until after a rally back up to overhead resistance.
I also added on this monthly chart white trend lines for a posited, overhead, ascending, narrowing wedge that price fell out of. If that is valid then the bottom of that ascending wedge may be overhead resistance on any rallies, until after the wave #4 completes. And given the apex of that ascending wedge is not until late 2025, I think the completion of wave #4 can not be in 2022.
I also added on this monthly chart white trend lines for a posited, overhead, ascending, narrowing wedge that price fell out of. If that is valid then the bottom of that ascending wedge may be overhead resistance on any rallies, until after the wave #4 completes. And given the apex of that ascending wedge is not until late 2025, I think the completion of wave #4 can not be in 2022.
Comment:
Again on the weekly.
Comment:
Time to be opinionated. One of the scenarios seems more likely. I think Bitcoin has essentially bottomed. Maybe one more drive to essentially a double bottom, albeit maybe marginally lower (or not lower).
Comment:
Here is the other scenario. This is the scenario I would choose if the markets were waiting on the Fed to stop hiking as they were at end of 2018. But the difference now is the inflation rate is much higher than the interest rate, thus everyone has an incentive to swing back into growth assets before the Fed pauses. The rotation into the opposite side of the trade (e.g. commodities, dollar, bonds, etc) has already topped, thus that money has to go somewhere that is oversold. Thus all we need is for inflation to peak, which is essentially already has. Maybe stocks get one more repricing lower due to fear Fed will raise more than expected in July or Sept, and/or due to earnings downward guidance over next 2 weeks.
Thus the next inflection point after the bottom is likely to be when overbought, as high interest rates will lead to a recession. At which point rotate back out into the opposite side of the trade again. However if we do see spike up to the top of the expected (depicted) range too soon as this scenario posits, then probably wise to look into (at that juncture) whether should sell before another decline.
Thus the next inflection point after the bottom is likely to be when overbought, as high interest rates will lead to a recession. At which point rotate back out into the opposite side of the trade again. However if we do see spike up to the top of the expected (depicted) range too soon as this scenario posits, then probably wise to look into (at that juncture) whether should sell before another decline.
Comment:
Another plausible scenario based on the fractal since the 2018 top through the 2021 top.
Comment:
My downside target for ADA is $0.39 assuming BTC doesn’t make a lower low. My upside targets are $1.60, $2, and $3+.
My upside targets for ETH are $3350 ranging up to $5500. ADA has 33 – 80% more upside leverage over BTC than ETH.
My upside targets for ETH are $3350 ranging up to $5500. ADA has 33 – 80% more upside leverage over BTC than ETH.
Comment:
Ron Walker (The Crypto Trader) and his proprietary momentum indicator which has never been wrong on Bitcoin yet, is adamant that very likely risk-on markets make another capitulation move down, even if they bounce again first. Ron points out still have the July Fed rate hike again (and with 9.1% CPI perhaps the consensus expectations will increase for a 100 basis points instead of 75 spooking the markets) and the earnings reports over the next 2 weeks may spook markets with downside future guidance.
Spot Bitcoin has not yet formed a bullish RSI divergence (almost did yesterday) but CME has had one. Some altcoins already have it and ADA almost made another drive to a bullish RSI divergence yesterday.
OTOH, when I do projections (even employing the BTC to S&P ratio) I compute that either already bottomed or the projections for another leg down are ~$12k.
So I am tempted to say we’ve already bottomed because I do not think BTC is going below ~$13.9k before a very significant rally up to the top of the posited broadening wedge (aka megaphone) pattern.
Yet markets take a while to bottom, because the herd is still very fearful. Bitcoin probably needs a prematurely aborted move down to instill more confidence that downside momentum is waning. Note if BTC heads to even just a marginally lower low (e.g. $16k), ADA could decline 10 cents (from $0.44) or more. That’s why I am hesitant to scale in quite yet. ADA is probably at least going to hit $1.60 if not double that on the significant rally into Q4 2022 or Q1 2023. Hope I can buy ADA <$0.35 instead of >$0.40.
The S&P has a very obviously strong support ~3520. Although some argue that everyone thinks it will bottom there so it probably will bottom higher. Yet the herd probably thinks we are in a bear market with 3200 or lower in play, as many expect BTC to hit $13k or lower.
The wick breach of final uptrend support on crypto was bought yesterday in spite of the unexpected 9.1% CPI report. This indicates to me buyers are starting to sense the bottom is near and almost causes me to panic buy. Even though that moved prices back up above final uptrend support, I suspect there is not enough of the herd following those brave souls and final support will give way for the cathartic release we need to form the final bullish divergences and bottom. I could be wrong and the bottom may already be behind us.
The Pi Cycle Bottom indicator crossed yesterday and on one of the previous instances note it crossed two days before the actual 37% capitulation move down for a bottom. The weekend is incoming for spot crypto, which is typically bearish on Saturday evening (EST).
Spot Bitcoin has not yet formed a bullish RSI divergence (almost did yesterday) but CME has had one. Some altcoins already have it and ADA almost made another drive to a bullish RSI divergence yesterday.
OTOH, when I do projections (even employing the BTC to S&P ratio) I compute that either already bottomed or the projections for another leg down are ~$12k.
So I am tempted to say we’ve already bottomed because I do not think BTC is going below ~$13.9k before a very significant rally up to the top of the posited broadening wedge (aka megaphone) pattern.
Yet markets take a while to bottom, because the herd is still very fearful. Bitcoin probably needs a prematurely aborted move down to instill more confidence that downside momentum is waning. Note if BTC heads to even just a marginally lower low (e.g. $16k), ADA could decline 10 cents (from $0.44) or more. That’s why I am hesitant to scale in quite yet. ADA is probably at least going to hit $1.60 if not double that on the significant rally into Q4 2022 or Q1 2023. Hope I can buy ADA <$0.35 instead of >$0.40.
The S&P has a very obviously strong support ~3520. Although some argue that everyone thinks it will bottom there so it probably will bottom higher. Yet the herd probably thinks we are in a bear market with 3200 or lower in play, as many expect BTC to hit $13k or lower.
The wick breach of final uptrend support on crypto was bought yesterday in spite of the unexpected 9.1% CPI report. This indicates to me buyers are starting to sense the bottom is near and almost causes me to panic buy. Even though that moved prices back up above final uptrend support, I suspect there is not enough of the herd following those brave souls and final support will give way for the cathartic release we need to form the final bullish divergences and bottom. I could be wrong and the bottom may already be behind us.
The Pi Cycle Bottom indicator crossed yesterday and on one of the previous instances note it crossed two days before the actual 37% capitulation move down for a bottom. The weekend is incoming for spot crypto, which is typically bearish on Saturday evening (EST).
Comment:
S&P premarket is breaking down! Here is the S&P chart I diagrammed weeks ago showing the strong support.
Comment:
Armstrong Ethereum’s monthly Forecast Array chart published on his May 20, 2022 blog Can Cryptocurrencies Survive WWIII? (←click for chart), expected a Long-term and Direction Change bottom in June (after the Direction Change in May for the crash), followed by (in a bottoming context presumably) a slingshot stomp down and then a breakout to the upside Panic Cycle in July, then a pullback from Sep, and then rally from Oct to Jan with a January Long-term top. This concurs with my favored published scenario for a BTC rebound to ~$50k by Q1 2023.
His private blog Bitcoin the Biggest Ponzi Scheme in History? contains a quarterly forecast array for Bitcoin, suggesting that July moves up from and/or is the low, Oct to Jan will be the relief rally bull trap. He says the monthly forecast array has a Panic Cycle in August — presumably a slingshot following on Ethereum‘s July. He says Monthly Bearish Reversal $10370 not yet elected, thus can be strong rebounds and wild volatility.
His private blog Bitcoin the Biggest Ponzi Scheme in History? contains a quarterly forecast array for Bitcoin, suggesting that July moves up from and/or is the low, Oct to Jan will be the relief rally bull trap. He says the monthly forecast array has a Panic Cycle in August — presumably a slingshot following on Ethereum‘s July. He says Monthly Bearish Reversal $10370 not yet elected, thus can be strong rebounds and wild volatility.
Comment:
Martin Armstrong, there is an important link below about the real reason for the attack on the Dutch farmers.
I have tried over the years to educate you about why Bitcoin will become the global reserve currency in a two-tiered monetary system wherein the plebs will be using 666-like, centralized (central bank) digital currencies (CBDCs). Yet you ostensibly continue to refuse to read and comprehend. Thus you continue to gloat whenever cryptocurrency declines from a peak. Note most of the cryptocosm will die eventually (perhaps in 2024) as did most of the Dot.com startups.
Did Amazon.com not survive the Dot.com bubble and disintermediate the world?
You do not seem to fully understand the entire implications of a very fundamental thesis about how the world is being disintermediated from tangible to intangible:
Demise of Finance, Rise of Knowledge.html
Read the following and make sure you also read my technical explanation carefully (not the Elliot Wave ‘terminal impulse’ theory but the technological and game theoretic explanation in the idea updates, scroll down the page):
Bitcoin's Ominous "terminal impulse"
Shelby Moore, {7/14/22 9:54 AM}
Armstrong’s Ethereum monthly Forecast Array chart published on his May 20, 2022 blog Can Cryptocurrencies Survive WWIII?, expected a Long-term and Direction Change bottom in June (after the Direction Change in May for the crash), followed by (in a bottoming context presumably) a slingshot stomp down and then a breakout to the upside Panic Cycle in July, then a pullback from Sep, and then rally from Oct to Jan with a January Long-term top. This concurs with my favored published scenario for a bull trap BTC rebound to ~$50k by Q1 2023.
His private blog Bitcoin the Biggest Ponzi Scheme in History? contains a quarterly forecast array for Bitcoin, suggesting that July moves up from and/or is the low, Oct to Jan will be the relief rally bull trap. He says the monthly forecast array has a Panic Cycle in August — presumably a slingshot following on Ethereum‘s July. He says Monthly Bearish Reversal $10370 not yet elected, thus can be strong rebounds and wild volatility.
Shelby Moore, {7/14/22 12:10 PM}
{In reply to anonymous}
> “Btw, understand that the whole cutting Nitrogen use by 30% thing in the Netherlands with the farmers is a pretext to build some kind of large single city network - prototype Smart City perhaps - stretching into Germany and Belgium”
My 2012 essay thesis (and recent follow-up) predicts this. The mechanistic (your term for tangible), financiable world is becoming so devalued (i.e. economically nonviable) w.r.t. individually possessed knowledge (i.e. the posited Knowledge Age) that it must increase economies-of-scale (in blobs of human protoplasm) and efficiencies in costs, technological-integration in a futile attempt to remain viable. Physical efficiencies can no longer compete against information which transmits electronically at the speed-of-light (or actually independent of time but that’s a multiverse concept!). The knowledge-capital-bankrupt masses will huddle together in a dismal attempt to remain economically relevant. To the extent the Knowledge Age can leverage such smart cities and not be retarded by them (e.g. via technological disintermediation and obfuscation), these meat space developments may have viable utility in addition to being massive “reeducation camps” (i.e. 666-like, China’s digital panopticon, The Stepford Wives) for the unenlightened masses. This is all natural and expected by my 2012 essay thesis (and recent follow-up) about nature and the Universe.
> “Yeah, if/when the CBDCs and track & trace bio-surveilance are in place it's game over. The majority of people seem unable to comprehend the importance of this total loss of personal sovereignty, and that they and their offspring will become perpetual digital serfs.”
They won't need to understand, they will naturally embrace the Knowledge Age because that’s where all economic growth will lie.
Game over for buying tangible goods that have been in a race to the abyss for negative profit margins sustained by debt and fiat money printing (i.e. subsidies) — I had pointed out years ago how the marginal-utility-of-debt has gone negative. My 2012 essay explained that China was enslaving its billions to subsidize the global debt bubble. The entire financiable era is huddling together and imploding into totalitarianism because it’s a bankrupt paradigm as my 2012 essay Demise of Finance, Rise of Knowledge thesis posited, predicted and explained. And those people who don’t figure out how to offboard will sink with the totalitarian Titanic.
But why would the decentralized Internet space (which is the critical infrastructure of the Knowledge Age) adopt centralized, totalitarian currencies? That sector would only do so if all decentralized options were assailable and thus nonviable. And that sector will become 99% of the economy in the coming decades as the Industrial Age is economically relegated as the Agricultural Age before. Why? Because knowledge is more valuable — iron was historically a precious metal until technology changed that and as the recent Uganda discovery exemplifies eventually gold will no longer be a precious metal. Long before Musk created his Boring Company, I proposed that autonomous boring bots could following ore veins in the process of exploration causing the supply of gold to skyrocket.
It will only take a few examples of centralized control wrecking the freedom of knowledge accretion to cause knowledge accretion to shift away from CBDCs, analogous to how Russia and China are dehitching from the Western financial system and launching their own monetary system cooperation.
Good luck to the government trying to ban quadrillions of $0.01 transactions. If the government attempts ban encryption (which they can not do!) then we will employ steganography.
I have tried over the years to educate you about why Bitcoin will become the global reserve currency in a two-tiered monetary system wherein the plebs will be using 666-like, centralized (central bank) digital currencies (CBDCs). Yet you ostensibly continue to refuse to read and comprehend. Thus you continue to gloat whenever cryptocurrency declines from a peak. Note most of the cryptocosm will die eventually (perhaps in 2024) as did most of the Dot.com startups.
Did Amazon.com not survive the Dot.com bubble and disintermediate the world?
You do not seem to fully understand the entire implications of a very fundamental thesis about how the world is being disintermediated from tangible to intangible:
Demise of Finance, Rise of Knowledge.html
Read the following and make sure you also read my technical explanation carefully (not the Elliot Wave ‘terminal impulse’ theory but the technological and game theoretic explanation in the idea updates, scroll down the page):
Bitcoin's Ominous "terminal impulse"
Shelby Moore, {7/14/22 9:54 AM}
Armstrong’s Ethereum monthly Forecast Array chart published on his May 20, 2022 blog Can Cryptocurrencies Survive WWIII?, expected a Long-term and Direction Change bottom in June (after the Direction Change in May for the crash), followed by (in a bottoming context presumably) a slingshot stomp down and then a breakout to the upside Panic Cycle in July, then a pullback from Sep, and then rally from Oct to Jan with a January Long-term top. This concurs with my favored published scenario for a bull trap BTC rebound to ~$50k by Q1 2023.
His private blog Bitcoin the Biggest Ponzi Scheme in History? contains a quarterly forecast array for Bitcoin, suggesting that July moves up from and/or is the low, Oct to Jan will be the relief rally bull trap. He says the monthly forecast array has a Panic Cycle in August — presumably a slingshot following on Ethereum‘s July. He says Monthly Bearish Reversal $10370 not yet elected, thus can be strong rebounds and wild volatility.
Shelby Moore, {7/14/22 12:10 PM}
{In reply to anonymous}
> “Btw, understand that the whole cutting Nitrogen use by 30% thing in the Netherlands with the farmers is a pretext to build some kind of large single city network - prototype Smart City perhaps - stretching into Germany and Belgium”
My 2012 essay thesis (and recent follow-up) predicts this. The mechanistic (your term for tangible), financiable world is becoming so devalued (i.e. economically nonviable) w.r.t. individually possessed knowledge (i.e. the posited Knowledge Age) that it must increase economies-of-scale (in blobs of human protoplasm) and efficiencies in costs, technological-integration in a futile attempt to remain viable. Physical efficiencies can no longer compete against information which transmits electronically at the speed-of-light (or actually independent of time but that’s a multiverse concept!). The knowledge-capital-bankrupt masses will huddle together in a dismal attempt to remain economically relevant. To the extent the Knowledge Age can leverage such smart cities and not be retarded by them (e.g. via technological disintermediation and obfuscation), these meat space developments may have viable utility in addition to being massive “reeducation camps” (i.e. 666-like, China’s digital panopticon, The Stepford Wives) for the unenlightened masses. This is all natural and expected by my 2012 essay thesis (and recent follow-up) about nature and the Universe.
> “Yeah, if/when the CBDCs and track & trace bio-surveilance are in place it's game over. The majority of people seem unable to comprehend the importance of this total loss of personal sovereignty, and that they and their offspring will become perpetual digital serfs.”
They won't need to understand, they will naturally embrace the Knowledge Age because that’s where all economic growth will lie.
Game over for buying tangible goods that have been in a race to the abyss for negative profit margins sustained by debt and fiat money printing (i.e. subsidies) — I had pointed out years ago how the marginal-utility-of-debt has gone negative. My 2012 essay explained that China was enslaving its billions to subsidize the global debt bubble. The entire financiable era is huddling together and imploding into totalitarianism because it’s a bankrupt paradigm as my 2012 essay Demise of Finance, Rise of Knowledge thesis posited, predicted and explained. And those people who don’t figure out how to offboard will sink with the totalitarian Titanic.
But why would the decentralized Internet space (which is the critical infrastructure of the Knowledge Age) adopt centralized, totalitarian currencies? That sector would only do so if all decentralized options were assailable and thus nonviable. And that sector will become 99% of the economy in the coming decades as the Industrial Age is economically relegated as the Agricultural Age before. Why? Because knowledge is more valuable — iron was historically a precious metal until technology changed that and as the recent Uganda discovery exemplifies eventually gold will no longer be a precious metal. Long before Musk created his Boring Company, I proposed that autonomous boring bots could following ore veins in the process of exploration causing the supply of gold to skyrocket.
It will only take a few examples of centralized control wrecking the freedom of knowledge accretion to cause knowledge accretion to shift away from CBDCs, analogous to how Russia and China are dehitching from the Western financial system and launching their own monetary system cooperation.
Good luck to the government trying to ban quadrillions of $0.01 transactions. If the government attempts ban encryption (which they can not do!) then we will employ steganography.
Comment:
Armstrong is an absolute idiot about cryptocurrency. No matter how many times I email him to try to politely explain to him, he still continues to erroneously state that the government can confiscate crypto. The private keys for crypto can be held inside someone’s head. How is the government supposed to confiscate that which I have only memorized? Is the government going to waterboard torture a billion people to force them to puke up their private keys? Armstrong is thinking in terms of brick&mortar transactions — he should study game currencies and imagine them entirely decentralized. I’m flabberghast that Martin would write such idiotic statements, given he claims to understand computer science.
The government could confiscate anything centralized, such as preventing conversion to/from the fiat system (although people can always find a way around this in the black market and good luck to the government trying to track billions of people trading favors with their friends or relatives or some decentralized matchmaking blackmarket akin to Localbitcoins but decentralized P2P). But knowledge age actors don’t need fiat — read my 2012 essay! Potentially although far-fetched nearly impossible to organize, the world government via an institution such as the FATF and/or FASB could regulate all Bitcoin miners worldwide forcing them to honor a global blacklist for confiscating BTC (or block transactions) from the actual decentralied ledger. But Bitcoin mining can move, as it has in 2021 left China. So the blacklist would need to have no defection (e.g. El Salvador must first be enslaved by the world government and the IMF) any where on earth or outer space (yes satellites may be sovereign!). And besides I already devised a consensus system that entirely evade such plans of any world government. So Armstrong is simply wrong. Bitcoin does not depend on the power grid, as it could be run entirely off solar and the blocks could be broadcast over shortwave radio. Eventually some governments (e.g. NATO countries to fulfill Deagel’s prediction for their 50 – 75% depopulation) may attempt to implement something like China’s Great Firewall, but this will just cause those societies hitched to the tangible age to implode faster as the knowledge age extracts themselves and their knowledge age capital from Iron Curtain jurisdictions.
Armstrong made the dumbest mistake ever which exemplifies that he is stuck in the atavistic Industrial Age and can’t grok that he just wrote the exact antithesis of the reality of what is coming, “The only thing outside the fiat system as they want to call it is EVERYTHING tangible from real estate, stocks, collectibles, and precious metals.” Everything tangible will become relatively worthless precisely because it can’t evade the societalcide (satellites and drones can monitor you). Whereas everything informational (digital) can be decentralized in such minute granularity, intraceability and obfuscation so as to evade the collapsing societalcide. If you want to end up in the poor house, then listen to Armstrong’s ignorant prognostication.
“Call me old fashion, old-school, or just old. But the most PRACTICAL thing you can do is have pre-1965 silver coins that the average person can recognize and see the date knowing that it is valuable.”
Yep Martin you are ostensibly blinded by your old age and inability to think objectively about this topic. Silver coins are laughable — the most idiotic possible thing someone could do.
“Just because you understand something does not mean everyone does.”
Nobody thinks silver is money any more. Nobody uses coins. Everyone uses digital money. GAFC Martin. You lost touch with society in the decade you were in prison and in the decade or so hence, you have been too busy to see how much the world has changed.
“Cryptocurrencies are TRADING VEHICLES but not a long-term asset class. Our computer called the top in the cryptos, and it has been the ONLY unbiased forecaster out there.”
As was the case for the Dot.com bubble most are just exit scams and schemes and will plummet to $0 eventually. But there is an Amazon.com lurking in the cryptospace and maybe also a Paypal, Twitter, etc.. Don’t throw out the baby with the bathwater.
Armstrong’s private blog Bitcoin the Biggest Ponzi Scheme in History? ridicules those who claimed Bitcoin will become a reserve currency. I presume Marty is reacting to my emails to him explaining the technological, economics and game theory mechanism by which the legacy protocol Bitcoin will rise from the ashes of the bust of the cryptocosm bubble. The old fart will ignorantly gloat for now, but will he run away and hide when I am proven correct, as the “152+” IQ Eric S. Raymond did when I was vindicated (e.g. absolute, unequivocal proof of the WTC7 demolition on 9/11) about all our arguments on his blog which he banned me for. Eric stopped blogging in 2020 and disappeared after he was removed by the societalcide from the Open Source Foundation that he helped created, lol. I wonder if Martin will do the same when I am vindicated? I have tried to be nice and communicate in a respective tone to these guys and they are obstinate fools who refuse to learn anything new that goes against their subjective confirmation bias.
Yes crypto peaked in 2021, as it did in 2017, as it did in 2013, as it did in… every single time these troglodyte idiots such as Martin Armstrong and Peter Schiff come out gloating crypto has permanently peaked and will never go higher. Because they do not understand It Is Just Time for the Knowledge Age to rise disintermediating and bankrupting the tangible age that is dying. The Boomers will never, ever understand it.
I guess I should stop trying to communicate this to Boomers. Let them out to pasture as they’re ostensibly too old, brains too ossified to adjust and save themselves.
The government could confiscate anything centralized, such as preventing conversion to/from the fiat system (although people can always find a way around this in the black market and good luck to the government trying to track billions of people trading favors with their friends or relatives or some decentralized matchmaking blackmarket akin to Localbitcoins but decentralized P2P). But knowledge age actors don’t need fiat — read my 2012 essay! Potentially although far-fetched nearly impossible to organize, the world government via an institution such as the FATF and/or FASB could regulate all Bitcoin miners worldwide forcing them to honor a global blacklist for confiscating BTC (or block transactions) from the actual decentralied ledger. But Bitcoin mining can move, as it has in 2021 left China. So the blacklist would need to have no defection (e.g. El Salvador must first be enslaved by the world government and the IMF) any where on earth or outer space (yes satellites may be sovereign!). And besides I already devised a consensus system that entirely evade such plans of any world government. So Armstrong is simply wrong. Bitcoin does not depend on the power grid, as it could be run entirely off solar and the blocks could be broadcast over shortwave radio. Eventually some governments (e.g. NATO countries to fulfill Deagel’s prediction for their 50 – 75% depopulation) may attempt to implement something like China’s Great Firewall, but this will just cause those societies hitched to the tangible age to implode faster as the knowledge age extracts themselves and their knowledge age capital from Iron Curtain jurisdictions.
Armstrong made the dumbest mistake ever which exemplifies that he is stuck in the atavistic Industrial Age and can’t grok that he just wrote the exact antithesis of the reality of what is coming, “The only thing outside the fiat system as they want to call it is EVERYTHING tangible from real estate, stocks, collectibles, and precious metals.” Everything tangible will become relatively worthless precisely because it can’t evade the societalcide (satellites and drones can monitor you). Whereas everything informational (digital) can be decentralized in such minute granularity, intraceability and obfuscation so as to evade the collapsing societalcide. If you want to end up in the poor house, then listen to Armstrong’s ignorant prognostication.
“Call me old fashion, old-school, or just old. But the most PRACTICAL thing you can do is have pre-1965 silver coins that the average person can recognize and see the date knowing that it is valuable.”
Yep Martin you are ostensibly blinded by your old age and inability to think objectively about this topic. Silver coins are laughable — the most idiotic possible thing someone could do.
“Just because you understand something does not mean everyone does.”
Nobody thinks silver is money any more. Nobody uses coins. Everyone uses digital money. GAFC Martin. You lost touch with society in the decade you were in prison and in the decade or so hence, you have been too busy to see how much the world has changed.
“Cryptocurrencies are TRADING VEHICLES but not a long-term asset class. Our computer called the top in the cryptos, and it has been the ONLY unbiased forecaster out there.”
As was the case for the Dot.com bubble most are just exit scams and schemes and will plummet to $0 eventually. But there is an Amazon.com lurking in the cryptospace and maybe also a Paypal, Twitter, etc.. Don’t throw out the baby with the bathwater.
Armstrong’s private blog Bitcoin the Biggest Ponzi Scheme in History? ridicules those who claimed Bitcoin will become a reserve currency. I presume Marty is reacting to my emails to him explaining the technological, economics and game theory mechanism by which the legacy protocol Bitcoin will rise from the ashes of the bust of the cryptocosm bubble. The old fart will ignorantly gloat for now, but will he run away and hide when I am proven correct, as the “152+” IQ Eric S. Raymond did when I was vindicated (e.g. absolute, unequivocal proof of the WTC7 demolition on 9/11) about all our arguments on his blog which he banned me for. Eric stopped blogging in 2020 and disappeared after he was removed by the societalcide from the Open Source Foundation that he helped created, lol. I wonder if Martin will do the same when I am vindicated? I have tried to be nice and communicate in a respective tone to these guys and they are obstinate fools who refuse to learn anything new that goes against their subjective confirmation bias.
Yes crypto peaked in 2021, as it did in 2017, as it did in 2013, as it did in… every single time these troglodyte idiots such as Martin Armstrong and Peter Schiff come out gloating crypto has permanently peaked and will never go higher. Because they do not understand It Is Just Time for the Knowledge Age to rise disintermediating and bankrupting the tangible age that is dying. The Boomers will never, ever understand it.
I guess I should stop trying to communicate this to Boomers. Let them out to pasture as they’re ostensibly too old, brains too ossified to adjust and save themselves.
Comment:
CORRECTION/CLARIFICATION: The flaw in Bitcoin is that if 50+% of the miners enforce censorship of transactions, then the minority can not defect. Thus an eventual globalist managed blacklist is eventually plausible. That is what my consensus algorithm fixes. And this is yet another reason that I posit that Bitcoin is a 666 enslavement launched by the global elite (perhaps Rothschild’s think tank).
Comment:
Fed Pivot Indicator shows that even if the Fed does not pivot, then the 5YR yield will drop as continued hawkishness from Fed will exacerbate probabilities of a recession. So we are at the end of this downturn in risk markets.
youtu.be/3iWKTgjUWOs?t=418
(click to see chart)
youtu.be/3iWKTgjUWOs?t=418
(click to see chart)
Comment:
PPI 11.3% inflation also came is much higher than expected after yesterday’s 9.1% CPI shocker:
www.marketwatch.com/...my-politics/calendar
Yesterday probabilities spiked for a 100 basis points July Fed Funds hike, but they moderated about half-way back down today:
www.investing.com/ce...nks/fed-rate-monitor
A Fed governor spoke saying he still preferred a 75 basis hike:
archive.ph/https://w...gs-season-2022-07-14
“Federal Reserve Gov. Christopher Waller said he still favored a 75 basis point rate hike when policy makers meet later this month versus a 100 basis point move that investors had started to price in after Wednesday's hotter-than-expected consumer-price index reading. Waller left the door open to a larger hike, however, depending on how strong retail sales and housing data are ahead of the Fed meeting.”
My opinion is that uncertainty breeds caution and there will be a selloff tomorrow sending the weekend to bearish mode for crypto. I could be wrong about this and a support trend line on CME Bitcoin indicates maybe end of next week for the $18.1k gap fill.
www.marketwatch.com/...my-politics/calendar
Yesterday probabilities spiked for a 100 basis points July Fed Funds hike, but they moderated about half-way back down today:
www.investing.com/ce...nks/fed-rate-monitor
A Fed governor spoke saying he still preferred a 75 basis hike:
archive.ph/https://w...gs-season-2022-07-14
“Federal Reserve Gov. Christopher Waller said he still favored a 75 basis point rate hike when policy makers meet later this month versus a 100 basis point move that investors had started to price in after Wednesday's hotter-than-expected consumer-price index reading. Waller left the door open to a larger hike, however, depending on how strong retail sales and housing data are ahead of the Fed meeting.”
My opinion is that uncertainty breeds caution and there will be a selloff tomorrow sending the weekend to bearish mode for crypto. I could be wrong about this and a support trend line on CME Bitcoin indicates maybe end of next week for the $18.1k gap fill.
Comment:
Hmm. Maybe bottomed already?
Comment:
Bottom at least until the apocalyptic crash:
Comment:
This bear flag is also one of the scenarios I am looking at in the charts. With a top either at current price or one more leg up to ~$23 – 24k. He has BTC coming back down to ~$16k by early August.
youtu.be/30kTaw15elE?t=356
(Bitcoin Pumping! The Big Short is Coming!)
youtu.be/30kTaw15elE?t=356
(Bitcoin Pumping! The Big Short is Coming!)
Comment:
VIX looks like it is coiling for another spike up to a lower high.
Dollar probably to explode higher again:
Oil bullish divergence and starting to head back up:
VIX looks like it is coiling for another spike up to a lower high.
Dollar probably to explode higher again:
Oil bullish divergence and starting to head back up:
Comment:
ADA/BTC and ETH/BTC likely hit the top of this bull trap:
ADA broke out but it can rollover to a lower low perhaps $0.365 by early August and still remain above the descending support of the wedge it broke up out of:
ETH back down to $800 or $1000?
ADA broke out but it can rollover to a lower low perhaps $0.365 by early August and still remain above the descending support of the wedge it broke up out of:
ETH back down to $800 or $1000?
Comment:
IMPORTANT: My target for the bottom is $16.6 – $16.8k for early Aug which OPTICALARTdotCOM also expects, but he also has a compelling case for continuing lower to $10k by September. Because he thinks CPI is going much higher and interest rates not yet done spiking.
I can find slight alterations of his interpretation to support my thesis{1}, which I have updated and will post as a follow-up.
{1} e.g. Treasuries are at a support line on his chart and his horizontal red line could be slightly descending allowing for a later intersection.
youtu.be/gnAmarON7CY?t=44
(Pi Cycle Bottom Indicator is WRONG! Bitcoin bottom is $10k)
I can find slight alterations of his interpretation to support my thesis{1}, which I have updated and will post as a follow-up.
{1} e.g. Treasuries are at a support line on his chart and his horizontal red line could be slightly descending allowing for a later intersection.
youtu.be/gnAmarON7CY?t=44
(Pi Cycle Bottom Indicator is WRONG! Bitcoin bottom is $10k)
Comment:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=gnAmarON...
@OPTICALARTdotCOM there may be a spike bull trap to ~$43k by Nov or Dec, from ~$16k in Aug or Sep, before the move down to fill the $9.8k CME gap in Mar to May 2023. Then a rally to ~$58k by Mar 2024, then a crash to below $5k by Aug 2024. This is based on the expanding fractal pattern from 2019 to 2020 I had identified in summer of 2021 which led me to expect a severe decline but I got confused by the higher high in Q4 2021. I have returned to this fractal pattern which more or less agrees with you thesis. There are actually two sets of consistent parallel lines you may need to pay attention to with one set having less slope than the ones you annotated (drawn through the left shoulder and the spike low on Feb 5, 2018), thus maybe providing for the temporary bottom ~$16k. Thus the Pi Cycle Bottom could be correct if interpreted as being near to the bottom, as it could flip back up and then trigger again for the 2023 low. I can find slight alterations of your interpretation to support my thesis, e.g. Treasuries are at a support line on your chart and your horizontal red line could be slightly descending allowing for a later intersection.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=gnAmarON...
Meet Kevin identified that inflation is spreading out into all sectors because consumers are still spending and thus everyone has pricing power. Oil is heading back up for a bull trap rally. Dollar will spike anew. VIX is coiling for another lower high spike up.
@OPTICALARTdotCOM there may be a spike bull trap to ~$43k by Nov or Dec, from ~$16k in Aug or Sep, before the move down to fill the $9.8k CME gap in Mar to May 2023. Then a rally to ~$58k by Mar 2024, then a crash to below $5k by Aug 2024. This is based on the expanding fractal pattern from 2019 to 2020 I had identified in summer of 2021 which led me to expect a severe decline but I got confused by the higher high in Q4 2021. I have returned to this fractal pattern which more or less agrees with you thesis. There are actually two sets of consistent parallel lines you may need to pay attention to with one set having less slope than the ones you annotated (drawn through the left shoulder and the spike low on Feb 5, 2018), thus maybe providing for the temporary bottom ~$16k. Thus the Pi Cycle Bottom could be correct if interpreted as being near to the bottom, as it could flip back up and then trigger again for the 2023 low. I can find slight alterations of your interpretation to support my thesis, e.g. Treasuries are at a support line on your chart and your horizontal red line could be slightly descending allowing for a later intersection.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=gnAmarON...
Meet Kevin identified that inflation is spreading out into all sectors because consumers are still spending and thus everyone has pricing power. Oil is heading back up for a bull trap rally. Dollar will spike anew. VIX is coiling for another lower high spike up.
Comment:
I have reinterpreted my thesis to factor in OPTICALARTdotCOM’s points, but I have higher levels for the lows and his $10k low comes later in Q2 2023. The Fib retracement measurements are consistent on my interpretation, not his. I think he put his major descending red support lines (which are light blue on my chart) in the wrong position and there are two slopes to consider (his and another one). I am gaining confidence in my chart now!
Bitcoin fell down out of the giant ascending wedge. Absolute catastrophe coming in the markets H2 2024.
Bitcoin fell down out of the giant ascending wedge. Absolute catastrophe coming in the markets H2 2024.
Comment:
Another reason the risk-on markets will be spooked again is inflation is becoming sticky and there are factors which can continue to drive CPI higher even if oil and commodities decline (not to mention we appear to be seeing the start of a bounce in those). Also the implications of this are depressing. We have an inflation spiral ahead. Additionally California will send out the stimulus checks in October and that’s also when Biden will stop draining the U.S. petroleum reserve.
youtu.be/uliw6ZedASM
(3 Reasons why the Fed will "Paul Volcker" CRASH Markets.)
youtu.be/uliw6ZedASM
(3 Reasons why the Fed will "Paul Volcker" CRASH Markets.)
Comment:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=uliw6Zed...
An economic collapse is needed to thwart spiraling, sticky inflation. The supply chains have been wrecked (intentionally by leftists). Only the demand side can be modulated now. I just returned from Mexico. Beef is 3 times more expensive in the U.S. (even compared to the UK) because during the pLandemic many meat processors went bankrupt. The consolidation has created a monopolistic processing industry which is squeezing the cattle producers who are decreasing their herds because they have no pricing power. Yet the processing industry sets the prices as high as the market will bear, raking in insane profits.
An economic collapse is needed to thwart spiraling, sticky inflation. The supply chains have been wrecked (intentionally by leftists). Only the demand side can be modulated now. I just returned from Mexico. Beef is 3 times more expensive in the U.S. (even compared to the UK) because during the pLandemic many meat processors went bankrupt. The consolidation has created a monopolistic processing industry which is squeezing the cattle producers who are decreasing their herds because they have no pricing power. Yet the processing industry sets the prices as high as the market will bear, raking in insane profits.
Comment:
IMPORTANT:
youtu.be/R1pueM9ujr4
(It’s About to be A Wild Ride for the SP500 | Why Volatility is About to CRUSH Investors)
youtu.be/R1pueM9ujr4
(It’s About to be A Wild Ride for the SP500 | Why Volatility is About to CRUSH Investors)
Comment:
Unlike in the 1970s, spikes in price inflation aren’t leading to massive unemployment. Instead more like before the Dotcom and 2008 crash. Duh! Because Westerners can pay the higher prices as they’re heavily invested in assets that have gone up more than inflation, e.g. stocks and housing. The massive unemployment won’t happen until the massive implosion of investment assets. Also the Western governments are subsidizing those who are not invested.
youtu.be/j5H9kU5R3go?t=475
(Why Stocks are Completely Disconnected From Reality.)
youtu.be/j5H9kU5R3go?t=475
(Why Stocks are Completely Disconnected From Reality.)
Comment:
This confirms BTC will not be rallying to new ATHs until after the bottom of the 2024 recession and market crash.
twitter.com/venturef.../1549577722300715010
(click for the chart)
twitter.com/venturef.../1549577722300715010
(click for the chart)
Comment:
twitter.com/venturef.../1549581172077912064
(click for chart)
“After bouncing off the golden trendline support, $ETH/#BTC also at monthly high here:
In the best case, if #ETH2 serves as an event meaningful enough to trump US risk-asset macro, ETH could resume in a new bulltrend like 2017. Otherwise it may sell off to golden trendline again.”
twitter.com/venturef.../1549581172077912064
(click for chart)
“After bouncing off the golden trendline support, $ETH/#BTC also at monthly high here:
In the best case, if #ETH2 serves as an event meaningful enough to trump US risk-asset macro, ETH could resume in a new bulltrend like 2017. Otherwise it may sell off to golden trendline again.”
Comment:
ADA/BTC has more upside leverage than ETH/BTC:
Another reason to favor the ghosted scenario is there is a Pi Cycle Bottom incoming perhaps today, and it has called the major bottom correctly 3 times previously.
If we have an imminent major bottom, then the rally should be significant and the ghosted scenario posits a more significant rally in Q4 2022 into Q1 2023. However if the price bottoms below ~$13.9k, then this Pi Cycle Bottom would complete wave #4 and I would then expect a rally to a new ATH in which case the overhead, ascending white trend line comes into consideration for the top of the rally perhaps in Q4 2022 into Q1 2023.