I've made this analysis last night that I though might give an indication of where BTC can potentially go. I've compared the PoC of a previous BTC rally with what became the ultimate bottom that sets the base of a next rally. Also what could statistically be expected as this cycle's top and the ultimate bottom, based on diminishing returns.
The top for this cycle in this analysis, based on diminishing returns (regression of previous price tops in prices) comes at about $77449. Expected to top at around the end of December '21 / beginning of January '22, that's roughly where the projected top of the log regression band touches the ~$77449 price mark.
The next cycle's bottom in this analysis, based on previous cycle's PoC to current cycle's bottom ratio TIMES the current cycle's PoC is ~$13950. Notice that current cycle's PoC will also likely move about as prices potentially go up. It is very difficult to project an expected date for the bottom to happen.
Take this analysis with a pinch of salt as:
1- I'm not a statistician and this is not a prediction, I'm simply having fun with the numbers
2- I might have gotten the scale of the bull runs wrong and I've only taken into account the previous 2 major bull runs
3- BTC markets have limited data to draw an accurate model
Nevertheless I thought I might share it with you guys
Another take from this is that, if BTC tops at around late Dec '21 / early Jan '22, it will slowly grind its way up and Alts will certainly outperform the corn in my opinion. It's nearly a 1.5x from where we are nevertheless. Alternatively, it could come as a massive green candle and break through the regression band as it did on 2017 top, or not come at all.
The top for this cycle in this analysis, based on diminishing returns (regression of previous price tops in prices) comes at about $77449. Expected to top at around the end of December '21 / beginning of January '22, that's roughly where the projected top of the log regression band touches the ~$77449 price mark.
The next cycle's bottom in this analysis, based on previous cycle's PoC to current cycle's bottom ratio TIMES the current cycle's PoC is ~$13950. Notice that current cycle's PoC will also likely move about as prices potentially go up. It is very difficult to project an expected date for the bottom to happen.
Take this analysis with a pinch of salt as:
1- I'm not a statistician and this is not a prediction, I'm simply having fun with the numbers
2- I might have gotten the scale of the bull runs wrong and I've only taken into account the previous 2 major bull runs
3- BTC markets have limited data to draw an accurate model
Nevertheless I thought I might share it with you guys
Another take from this is that, if BTC tops at around late Dec '21 / early Jan '22, it will slowly grind its way up and Alts will certainly outperform the corn in my opinion. It's nearly a 1.5x from where we are nevertheless. Alternatively, it could come as a massive green candle and break through the regression band as it did on 2017 top, or not come at all.