stephen.punwasi

BABA running out of steam?

Short
NYSE:BABA   Alibaba Group Holdings Ltd.
While the company has some great fundamentals and cash flow, since IPO the stock has had quire the run up which leads me to wonder if there's room for it to run more? I think there is, but I do think in the short-term more a more attractive buying opportunity may exist in the next few weeks.

PRICE - Price is starting to decline, which isn't necessarily a bad thing. But the stock failing to break resistance at ~$120 is a sign that many people might find it's gone up too fast. While I don't see a catastrophic dip, I am looking to add long positions around the $106 level. If this level holds, watch for rejection at 120. Another rejection at that point could send it back to 106.

ACCUMULATION - There appears to be some distribution occurring. Since the stock is fairly new, watching where buyers start to reappear again is going to be very important in determining price stability going forward.

MACD - There's no bull case here. The MACD is indicating that unless a major event jerks it in the other direction, the path of least resistance is lower here.

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