Charted on 28th, posting on 30th for $AVAX
As this is being written, the AVAX conference is over and has been quite a display of events for many developers and investors looking to get in the best alternative EVM network. Besides being part of the SOLUNAVAX and JEWELUNAVAX narrative.
Reasons to be bullish AVAX
+ subnets - handling many transactions that even allows for gas fees to be native token other than AVAX, reducing load on network, #Crabada game and #DFK are the 2 chosen ones for the entire world to see
+ 1 second finality
+ low gas fees
+ seamless experience
+ onboarding tradfi clients for defi
+ gud team
+ Pump season
Expecting a rush to onboard AVAX as more defi initiatives build on top of it and the adoption and entrance from GameFi developers after seeing DFK and Crab’s eventual success. You can learn more about AVAX here
Trading plan - 3 scenarios
Very bullish - 35%
Alts season with BTC getting higher and USDT dominance dropping - this means greater liquidity flow from higher cap alts to lower ones, as well as risk-on behaviour. AVAX ranks 10-11th place but has yet to reach its ATH which will be a psychological target for many. Also part of the strongest meta narratives. Generally as it has broken out of a descending trendline, printed a higher high and bounced off the 0.382 fib (around $89), the demand zone would have shown where people would have loaded up. Targets are overhead fibs 0.5 ($100), 0.618 ($111) 0.786 ($127) and then ATHs ($147). TLDR add on reconfirmed tests of fibs, old demand zone, ranges for parabolic price channel, and flip of old supply zone. It gets tricky once it reaches the 0.5 and 0.618 fib as the latter is an old supply zone, hitting 0.5fib would signify that AVAX is about to enter a parabolic price action yet again. Expecting volatile rejections from these old supply zones and usually the first attempt to breach into parabolic price action channel would fail. Targeting a 3-5 week trade with targets $127 and $147 before seasonal weakness in May appears
Conservative Bullish - 40%
It is a known thing that tokens usually display post-conference dump with reference to Fantom and Solana conferences. Would be expecting the lower 0.236 fib to be tapped near $75 to create capitulation. And then the current supply zone will be retested again, maybe twice, before breakout succeeds and confirmation of support at $89 which is the 0.382 fib that sits comfortably in the new demand zone. TLDR add below current supply zone towards 75.5 or upon breakout and retracement and retest of $89, before targeting $100 and $111, which is the 0.5 fib that could determine bullish or bearish sentiment, as well as 0.618 which is a key fib level which a) typically faces price action rejection and b) coincides with the support of the parabolic channel.
Bearish - 25%
BTC might dip as the price action may be unsustainable according to others, creating sell pressure of AVAX in AVAX/BTC or AVAX/USD pairs as liquidity is lowered and people take profits to protect capital. It would be likely if the price dips towards the lower ascending trendline at $68, and then I would look out for any breaks below this trendline which would indicate weakness and lack of buyers. TLDR short on rejection of 0.236 fib and breakdown of lower trendline with a target of $54, slightly above the old demand zone near $53. Generally I only long coins, so this could be used to determine your entry levels to maximize risk:reward ratios. Also 25% likely scenario because we note that the volume has been relatively lower as compared to previous price run
This analysis involves mainly around fib levels demand/supply zones flipping to provide support(old supply zone becomes demand area) or resistance (vice versa). Awaiting AVAX real price movement once volume kicks in because right now it is already trending upwards on lower volume. If you’re looking more at long term growth, do check out Bybit as they offer spot, perps, 2% APY staking and information on AVAX too
As this is being written, the AVAX conference is over and has been quite a display of events for many developers and investors looking to get in the best alternative EVM network. Besides being part of the SOLUNAVAX and JEWELUNAVAX narrative.
Reasons to be bullish AVAX
+ subnets - handling many transactions that even allows for gas fees to be native token other than AVAX, reducing load on network, #Crabada game and #DFK are the 2 chosen ones for the entire world to see
+ 1 second finality
+ low gas fees
+ seamless experience
+ onboarding tradfi clients for defi
+ gud team
+ Pump season
Expecting a rush to onboard AVAX as more defi initiatives build on top of it and the adoption and entrance from GameFi developers after seeing DFK and Crab’s eventual success. You can learn more about AVAX here
Trading plan - 3 scenarios
Very bullish - 35%
Alts season with BTC getting higher and USDT dominance dropping - this means greater liquidity flow from higher cap alts to lower ones, as well as risk-on behaviour. AVAX ranks 10-11th place but has yet to reach its ATH which will be a psychological target for many. Also part of the strongest meta narratives. Generally as it has broken out of a descending trendline, printed a higher high and bounced off the 0.382 fib (around $89), the demand zone would have shown where people would have loaded up. Targets are overhead fibs 0.5 ($100), 0.618 ($111) 0.786 ($127) and then ATHs ($147). TLDR add on reconfirmed tests of fibs, old demand zone, ranges for parabolic price channel, and flip of old supply zone. It gets tricky once it reaches the 0.5 and 0.618 fib as the latter is an old supply zone, hitting 0.5fib would signify that AVAX is about to enter a parabolic price action yet again. Expecting volatile rejections from these old supply zones and usually the first attempt to breach into parabolic price action channel would fail. Targeting a 3-5 week trade with targets $127 and $147 before seasonal weakness in May appears
Conservative Bullish - 40%
It is a known thing that tokens usually display post-conference dump with reference to Fantom and Solana conferences. Would be expecting the lower 0.236 fib to be tapped near $75 to create capitulation. And then the current supply zone will be retested again, maybe twice, before breakout succeeds and confirmation of support at $89 which is the 0.382 fib that sits comfortably in the new demand zone. TLDR add below current supply zone towards 75.5 or upon breakout and retracement and retest of $89, before targeting $100 and $111, which is the 0.5 fib that could determine bullish or bearish sentiment, as well as 0.618 which is a key fib level which a) typically faces price action rejection and b) coincides with the support of the parabolic channel.
Bearish - 25%
BTC might dip as the price action may be unsustainable according to others, creating sell pressure of AVAX in AVAX/BTC or AVAX/USD pairs as liquidity is lowered and people take profits to protect capital. It would be likely if the price dips towards the lower ascending trendline at $68, and then I would look out for any breaks below this trendline which would indicate weakness and lack of buyers. TLDR short on rejection of 0.236 fib and breakdown of lower trendline with a target of $54, slightly above the old demand zone near $53. Generally I only long coins, so this could be used to determine your entry levels to maximize risk:reward ratios. Also 25% likely scenario because we note that the volume has been relatively lower as compared to previous price run
This analysis involves mainly around fib levels demand/supply zones flipping to provide support(old supply zone becomes demand area) or resistance (vice versa). Awaiting AVAX real price movement once volume kicks in because right now it is already trending upwards on lower volume. If you’re looking more at long term growth, do check out Bybit as they offer spot, perps, 2% APY staking and information on AVAX too
Comment:
100 is hit!!! wondering if the extra 10% past round psych numbers kick in, that will get us in early to 111!
Comment:
1st bounce off demand zone , expect another dip to 90 if bad week ahead, then push towards 111