AVAXUSD: Avalanche Elliott Wave History and Potential
2024-01-17
The Avalanche token AVAX was created about September 2020, and began trading on exchanges about a year later, after an investment of 230 million USD by an investor group.
The all-time high of the token is US$ 147.50, achieved shortly after its listing. Since then it has been trading downward alongside the general crypto winter of 2022 to a low of $8.62 (Coinbase) on September 25, 2023.
Since the last week of September 2023, AVAX caught the spirit of the new crypto bull market, and commenced a complete five-wave Elliott Wave impulse peaking on Christmas Eve (12/24) at exactly $50.00, a psychological level that is also just short of the first historical chart resistance at $51.25.
Since Christmas, AVAX has been trading down as low as $31.25, in what appears so far to be a simple sharp A-B-C correction.
For a successful run to a new all-time high the token must overcome three principal levels of resistance:
- a band at the $50-52 level
- the 0.618 Fibonacci retrace level of its decline from ATH, which also coincides closely with a structural apex of the decline.
- the all-time high at $147
Since the token has seemingly completed an entire Elliott Wave impulse, and has therefore formed a new wave one top, we can use this value to project the future potential for advancement, potentially into open price discovery above $150. However, the complete analysis relies on the certainty of completion of wave two, which needs to be confirmed.
The chart shows what this may look like in the large black wave, of which wave three ends at about $550. If the past angle of attack, or slope, continues to prevail, this should complete sometime in Spring.
The Avalanche token AVAX was created about September 2020, and began trading on exchanges about a year later, after an investment of 230 million USD by an investor group.
The all-time high of the token is US$ 147.50, achieved shortly after its listing. Since then it has been trading downward alongside the general crypto winter of 2022 to a low of $8.62 (Coinbase) on September 25, 2023.
Since the last week of September 2023, AVAX caught the spirit of the new crypto bull market, and commenced a complete five-wave Elliott Wave impulse peaking on Christmas Eve (12/24) at exactly $50.00, a psychological level that is also just short of the first historical chart resistance at $51.25.
Since Christmas, AVAX has been trading down as low as $31.25, in what appears so far to be a simple sharp A-B-C correction.
For a successful run to a new all-time high the token must overcome three principal levels of resistance:
- a band at the $50-52 level
- the 0.618 Fibonacci retrace level of its decline from ATH, which also coincides closely with a structural apex of the decline.
- the all-time high at $147
Since the token has seemingly completed an entire Elliott Wave impulse, and has therefore formed a new wave one top, we can use this value to project the future potential for advancement, potentially into open price discovery above $150. However, the complete analysis relies on the certainty of completion of wave two, which needs to be confirmed.
The chart shows what this may look like in the large black wave, of which wave three ends at about $550. If the past angle of attack, or slope, continues to prevail, this should complete sometime in Spring.
Comment:
Avalanche has participated in the crypto recovery (really bitcoin’s recovery from 38.5 k in January) nicely. Perhaps not as speedy as people expect, but I think the reward will come this spring.
After the fairly shallow correction, a new five wave sequence has emerged.
After the fairly shallow correction, a new five wave sequence has emerged.
Comment:
While this brought a nice price recovery of over 50%, the wave sequence appears somewhat compressed. Its third wave was less than 100% of wave one, while we expect 162%. It ended in a compressed manner, displaying the structure of an ending diagonal, with waves 1, 2,3, 4, and 5 highly overlapping.
I expect somewhat of a correction here, with the first leg down completed or nearly so. It also shows a diagonal structure, perhaps in line with the preceding PA, but that stipulates at lease three legs (abc).
I expect somewhat of a correction here, with the first leg down completed or nearly so. It also shows a diagonal structure, perhaps in line with the preceding PA, but that stipulates at lease three legs (abc).
Comment:
I marked wave (2) as a flat, also exhibiting this compression, so wave (4) should be a three-wave sharp correction, to adhere to the principle of alternation.
Comment:
Looking at this leg today, printing a new high, I think I need to change the assignment of Intermediate waves (3) and (4) to another 1-2 sequence of lower degree, because the manner the market grew would make three the shortest wave, and that is verboten. So, this means likely that wave three will be extended, and that seems just fine with this sharp spike up, which is not yet finished, I think.
That also falls in line with the overall size I drew for Primary wave three to about 500 points, I.e. a 10x gain.
That also falls in line with the overall size I drew for Primary wave three to about 500 points, I.e. a 10x gain.
The Elliott waves are well developed and unambiguous. The sizes of waves conform to acceptable Fibonacci level extensions and size relations.
The bullish waves three and five are long, however, and project a strong market behavior.