Study of the movement of the South African Rand long term trend

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Recently a friend was interested in moving a portion of money out of South Africa to Australia. Some news came out about the South African President, Jacob Zuma, firing the respected economy minister. The Rand slipped quite a bit, the individual was concerned that they should have moved the funds out, so I performed an analysis of the Rand trend to validate if it was a good reason to sell.

This is a long term study with a roughly 2 year window. I have made this study as an update to confirm my earlier analysis. I saw a channel had formed and advised not to sell the Rand as it had not broken the long term price channel and trend, at least as I saw it. My analysis was correct and the individual held on to their money. The price has since moved back into the trend.

In conclusion; I stated that as long as the price remained within the trend it was worthwhile holding onto the South African Rand. If the price breaks out the upper orange trend line then selling of the rand might be advised as the long term trend had a higher probability of breaking. On the other hand if the price fell significantly below the bottom trend line profits could be booked, depending on circumstances. Ultimately holding on could also be an option as this is a long term analysis.
Comment: The Rand has clearly broken through the channel and resistances. The AUD has benefited from the weak USD and the Rand has not been able to capitalise on the dollar weakness. Going long on the AUD and short on ZAR is recommended now.
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