SnB92
Short

Waiting to confirm the downtrend

FX:AUDUSD   Australian Dollar / U.S. Dollar
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Ok, so I'm on the fence on the Aussie. My gut says it's going to continue downwards ( MACD seems to support this), but I'm waiting for confirmation before I make a move.

Key for me is the short-term 61.8% Fib level (in purple) and the 2/1 line of the Gann fan . The current price could mark an entry point to a short sell, but I'd want a confirming move held at or below the 50% level at 0.745 to be sure. The long-term target would the the 27th of May low at around 0.715, with an initial aim at the 38.2% Fib 0.742 - I reckon the next range could be held within 0.73-0.75. Stop loss would sit around the current level (61.8% = 0.756) until the break downwards was stable, in which case gradually move the stop towards 0.748 should things settle down.

I'd welcome any constructive feedback you guys & girls can offer: my analyitics style is purely technical and I like to keep things pretty simple and I'm still a trading novice, so feel free to comment!
Comment: Well, the outlook has possibly changed for AUD/USD and the red arrow on my chart (the less likely setup in my original opinion) could be a correction or a more significant reversal, with the 2/1 Gann fan line marking support. The next test is that 78.6% Fib level tested on Aug 12th, Sep 9th and 30th. Is this a triangle formation that could turn bullish for AUD? In any case, it looks like a wait-and-see approach is best on this pair for now.
Comment: Ok, looks like what I thought was the less-likely option (the smaller red arrow on the chart) might actually be the prevailing trend. To confirm this, a low of between 75.5 (the 2/1 Gann fan extension) and 75.7 (the 61.8% Fib) and a clean break above the 78.6% Fib mentioned in my last update would be enough to turn me bullish on this pair. Should the daily price bounce off the stated levels, a Long position might be in order, with a Stop-Loss at 0.75 and a target of the April high around 0.78.
Comment: Seems in retrospect that I'd misjudged the turning point - the US election was the key driver, and we can now see the price (up to today - 23rd November) pretty much follows the yellow arrow. I stood aside for this but there is potentially a good sign of a new downtrend - look for a correction that remains just under or around the 61.8% Fib at 0.757 and go Short, but keep an eye on the momentum.
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