akhostov

AUDUSD Butterfly setting up. Ideas on how to hop on the ride

akhostov Updated   
FX:AUDUSD   Australian Dollar / U.S. Dollar
2
Identify:
  • Price Action currently is in consolidation but still holds Bullish Sentiment
  • Bearish Butterfly Pattern forming. Probably short-term move within greater bullish trend
  • Bounds of structural zone is based off support/resistance, which matches the 0.5 and 0.618 retracement of the larger swing low to swing high move (zoom out of chart to see it).
  • Fib cluster (1.414 AB extension, 2.0 BC extension, 1.618 extensions of other swing low to swing highs) found in agreement with the 1.272 XA extension
  • Consolidation zone doesn’t touch 0.382 extension. May see a drop, but to keep Bullish sentiment, with a possible reversal at 0.711 - 0.712
  • 3 Drive Pattern found to match with Bearish Butterfly Pattern and Fib Cluster.
  • Bullish RSI Divergence

Predict:
  • Case 1: Price action breaks from the consolidation zone and goes up to pattern completion at 0.718, then drops down to retest structure resistance at the top part of the consolidation zone.
  • Case 2: Price action breaks to the down side of the consolidation zone. Still keeping our mindset short-term bullish, price action can bounce off of structure at 0.711 - 0.712 and continue up to pattern completion.
Comment:
Price action looks to have broken through the consolidation in conjunction of Case 1.

The break is probably from the Sydney Market opening.
Comment:
Entered the trade @ 16:30 PST with targets set to pattern completion.
Comment:
Just to point out, I will be leaving this trade if it doesn't complete within 45 minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision at 19:30 PST. Best to stay out during high-priority decisions and wait for the dust to settle.
Trade closed manually:
Exited the trade for +17 pip profit versus my 12 pip stop-loss (Risk/Reward about 1.42)

A good trade but with the bank decision coming out in 30 minutes I would rather stay out and preserve my capital rather than gamble and possibly lose to the point that my stop would be triggered below my stop-loss.
Disclaimer

The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.