dojitrader
Short

Borrow A Triangle, Add A Gartley, Top it off With 4hr Resistance

FX:AUDUSD   Australian Dollar / U.S. Dollar
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So I've borrowed the Triangle from traderWgun ~~~
Added a Gartley that does not quite fit my rules ~~~
Figured out the 4hr resistance all on my own ~~~
The double bottom measured move was from - I forget ~~~
Ignoring the 1.272 fib ext of A to B and the ab=cd doesn't help ~~~
There is almost a wave count with 4 and 5 to go ~~~
And, I still need the candlesticks to help define my entry/risk.
Where shall I short -- Candles at the trend line should yield a trigger . . .
The world awaits !
(hope I'm not asleep when the time is right)

Comments

Finally ! A reason to short at market ~~~~ 4hr chart
A nice shooting star / gravestone doji at resistance with small risk.
Stops just above the star is enough to know if this is right. 94.179
If you want a little more confirmation wait and see if this becomes
an evening star 3 candle combination.
Reply
ForceFollower dojitrader
OK. But, reg. "Stops just above the star..." - I think it would be safer to place your stops above the high to the left (X).
Reply
dojitrader ForceFollower
Yes, there is a bit of a question on stops.
@ 94.179 that's almost 10 pips above X
So, depending on where one thinks how high
above X the stops should go, this fits both.
I'm defaulting to the star as it's about a 70/80 %
probability of success.
(to tight a stop is my greatest trading weakness)
So, if we take out the star - All Bets Are Off !!!
In my mind.
What would be your suggested stop ?
Thanks for your thoughts !!!
Reply
ForceFollower dojitrader
I always place the stops behind the prior (completed) structure, not the ongoing one, that's why my default choice here would be above your X pivot, eg. 0.942.
Reply
dojitrader dojitrader
update on the update on the update . . .
Just looked at the sentiment of retail traders
AND,
They are Waaaaayyyy to short already !
In the 70 -80% of all positions !!!
Geeezzzzz !!!!
Plus, Aussie has the employment stats out tonight @ 9:30 ET
I probably will not hold this past 5pm ET
How fast one can loose confidence in a trade !!!!!!!
Reply
ForceFollower dojitrader
That's correct. Retail traders are mostly short in AU now, which, as a contrarian, I find bullish for AU. The opposite is occurring with the NU. http://fxtrade.oanda.com/analysis/historical-positions
Reply
dojitrader ForceFollower
Yes, for those that have not seen these web pages,
This is my favorite: http://www.forexfactory.com/trades.php#tradesPositions
Scroll down, it''s on the right hand side. This has been the most
accurate for a contrary indicator that I watch.
This page lists 3 others,including the one you mention, I think.
http://www.forexrazor.com/en-us/school/tabid/426/ID/437478/open-position-ratios-of-fx-brokerages
Got so excited with the shooting star, I forgot to keep
an eye on these numbers.
Reply
ForceFollower dojitrader
Cool! Thanks. :)
Reply
dojitrader dojitrader
A bird in the hand ?
I'm gonna bail before the employment stats
I'll probably give up 100 pips, but, if the RBNZ can cause
some whiplash think what the employment stats will do.
Perhaps I can re enter tomorrow.
Taking profits on this trade for +20 pips and my AUDJPY trade for +40 pips.
Reply
ForceFollower dojitrader
A very good decision. I haven't come out of it unscathed. :(
Reply
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