AUDEUR bear continuation trade (D)
The AUDEUR has been in a predominately bearish trend since early 2017 with no signs of stopping. The pair has been trading constructively in a pitchfork formation mostly between the 0.5 medians. After the trend line that began in 2009, confirmed in both 2015 and 2016, was broken price action accelerated down rapidly confirming the major break continuing the bearish trend.
There appears to be two trend lines (plotted in dots), which converged at the end of March, where the market reacted. There doesn't appear to be any technical upside for the pair right now aside from the support confluence coming up and trades may be weighted to the downside with risk to the upside. There's a possible continuation trade if the following occurs:
At the 2016 low of 0.6159 there's a confluence of support and if broken, opens up short entries with targets like 2015 low and two more possible targets. One of which is an unconfirmed trend line beginning in 2007 and touching the 2015 low, the last of which is especially interesting. Looking back at the major bull trend starting late 2008, reaching its peak mid 2012, the 61.8 level coincided within pips of where the market reacted late March and the confluence point we're looking at right now. Looking closer at the great bull fib levels, the market in the current bear trend also reacted at the other fib levels meaning it's possible the final 78.6 fib level may become a valid extreme target at 0.5567. History may come full circle if this were to happen.
In either case, good luck out there and have fun.
There appears to be two trend lines (plotted in dots), which converged at the end of March, where the market reacted. There doesn't appear to be any technical upside for the pair right now aside from the support confluence coming up and trades may be weighted to the downside with risk to the upside. There's a possible continuation trade if the following occurs:
- The market reacts in favor of the news heavy EUR the coming week.
- Price does not cross above the 0.5 median at 0.6310.
- Price crosses the median down to the 2016 low of 0.6159, circled in the chart in bold borders. This is the point of interest.
At the 2016 low of 0.6159 there's a confluence of support and if broken, opens up short entries with targets like 2015 low and two more possible targets. One of which is an unconfirmed trend line beginning in 2007 and touching the 2015 low, the last of which is especially interesting. Looking back at the major bull trend starting late 2008, reaching its peak mid 2012, the 61.8 level coincided within pips of where the market reacted late March and the confluence point we're looking at right now. Looking closer at the great bull fib levels, the market in the current bear trend also reacted at the other fib levels meaning it's possible the final 78.6 fib level may become a valid extreme target at 0.5567. History may come full circle if this were to happen.
In either case, good luck out there and have fun.
Comment:
The market is approaching the upper 0.5 median. We're looking for the market to bounce back downward. Else if price breaks the 0.5 median upwards then the trade becomes invalid.