August 2021, was one of the best months for me.
While Major indexes (NASDAQ, S&P 500, Dow Jones, Russell 2000) gained between 1.5-4 %, I had 8 analyses with a 10-73% gain in one month, those which hit stop loss made 1- 4% loss..!
I also trade BABA option twice and close them with +180 and 100% profits..! and had 2 unsuccessfull trade with -30% loss
(use 3% of my capital for each trade)
I publish this review to talk about one of the most important habits(strategies) in trading.
Novice Trader Story:
Season 1: In the middle of a bullish market, FOMO: Fear of Missing Out
Episode 1: Before Trading Journey Started
Many people and friends share their experience of making profits trading cryptos and stocks on their social media, why should not I give it a try???
Episode 2: Trading Journey Started
Opening the trading account, installing the app, transferring the money, and the gate of a multi-trillion dollars world are open now!
Episode 3: Pushing the first buy button
Welcome to the journey of trading, a journey full of adrenaline for novice traders!
Episode 4: Making the first profit
It feels like I am the wolf of wall street!
Those who entered the market after March 20, 2020, think making money in the market is the easiest thing in the world.
From a statistical point of view, it is very unlikely to made loss between March 2020 and February 2021.
Episode 5: Market become less inefficient
In a trended market (inefficient market) most tickers are positive on most of the trading days..! so making money is more probable than loosing it even for novice traders!
Problems start when corrections start, novice traders start changing their positions to find the bullish tickers that gave them the same good feeling.
They do not know market behaves in cyclical patterns and they experience multiple corrections by chasing for the best bullish movees.
Episode 6: Fear of Loss
after a couple of bad experiences, they decide to cash out the profits as soon as they see any, no matter how little it is..!
Episode 7: Vicious Cycle
Novice traders now experience the killing phenomenon of losing big in the hope of making reversals and wining small in fear of losing their small profits.
Episode 8: blowing up the trading account
There is not much left to lose!
After the trading account becomes smaller and smaller, it is time to go all-in. Usually, it does not work..!
Episode 9: what should I do now
Novice trader is now addicted to trading and can not stop trading, so decides to recharge the account..!
Episode 10: start over
Novice Trader 1: Keep doing the same thing over and over again, the same result over and over again (majority)
Novice Trader 2: Start learning about the market (reading books, courses) and keep trading, better results but making lots of mistakes because of not having a fully defined strategy.
Novice Trader 3: Stop trading and back to normal life, an insightful decision for many people if they make it..!
Novice Trader 4: Stop trading, start learning, and promise themselves not to start trading unless they have a fully defined strategy with good backtesting results. (less than 5% of all people)
Nash Equilibrium:
What Is Nash Equilibrium?
Nash equilibrium is a concept within game theory where the optimal outcome of a game is where there is no incentive to deviate from the initial strategy. More specifically, the Nash equilibrium is a concept of game theory where the optimal outcome of a game is one where no player has an incentive to deviate from their chosen strategy after considering an opponent's choice.
Overall, an individual can receive no incremental benefit from changing actions, assuming other players remain constant in their strategies. A game may have multiple Nash equilibria or none at all.(Investopedia)
What Is a Zero-Sum Game?
Zero-sum is a situation in game theory in which one person’s gain is equivalent to another’s loss, so the net change in wealth or benefit is zero. A zero-sum game may have as few as two players or as many as millions of participants. In financial markets, options and futures are examples of zero-sum games, excluding transaction costs. For every person who gains on a contract, there is a counter-party who loses.(Investopedia)
Conclusion :
Traders can make decisions and hurt themselves if they deviate from their main strategy based on Nash Equilibrium.
Most Important Question any trader should ask her/himself:
What is my strategy to make money in the market?
How I can make it better???
Refrence:
1- UPST:
2- AFRM;
3-ROOT:
4- PLTR:
5-AMC:
6- COIN:
7- GME:
8- BABA:
9- SPRT:
While Major indexes (NASDAQ, S&P 500, Dow Jones, Russell 2000) gained between 1.5-4 %, I had 8 analyses with a 10-73% gain in one month, those which hit stop loss made 1- 4% loss..!
I also trade BABA option twice and close them with +180 and 100% profits..! and had 2 unsuccessfull trade with -30% loss
(use 3% of my capital for each trade)
I publish this review to talk about one of the most important habits(strategies) in trading.
Novice Trader Story:
Season 1: In the middle of a bullish market, FOMO: Fear of Missing Out
Episode 1: Before Trading Journey Started
Many people and friends share their experience of making profits trading cryptos and stocks on their social media, why should not I give it a try???
Episode 2: Trading Journey Started
Opening the trading account, installing the app, transferring the money, and the gate of a multi-trillion dollars world are open now!
Episode 3: Pushing the first buy button
Welcome to the journey of trading, a journey full of adrenaline for novice traders!
Episode 4: Making the first profit
It feels like I am the wolf of wall street!
Those who entered the market after March 20, 2020, think making money in the market is the easiest thing in the world.
From a statistical point of view, it is very unlikely to made loss between March 2020 and February 2021.
Episode 5: Market become less inefficient
In a trended market (inefficient market) most tickers are positive on most of the trading days..! so making money is more probable than loosing it even for novice traders!
Problems start when corrections start, novice traders start changing their positions to find the bullish tickers that gave them the same good feeling.
They do not know market behaves in cyclical patterns and they experience multiple corrections by chasing for the best bullish movees.
Episode 6: Fear of Loss
after a couple of bad experiences, they decide to cash out the profits as soon as they see any, no matter how little it is..!
Episode 7: Vicious Cycle
Novice traders now experience the killing phenomenon of losing big in the hope of making reversals and wining small in fear of losing their small profits.
Episode 8: blowing up the trading account
There is not much left to lose!
After the trading account becomes smaller and smaller, it is time to go all-in. Usually, it does not work..!
Episode 9: what should I do now
Novice trader is now addicted to trading and can not stop trading, so decides to recharge the account..!
Episode 10: start over
Novice Trader 1: Keep doing the same thing over and over again, the same result over and over again (majority)
Novice Trader 2: Start learning about the market (reading books, courses) and keep trading, better results but making lots of mistakes because of not having a fully defined strategy.
Novice Trader 3: Stop trading and back to normal life, an insightful decision for many people if they make it..!
Novice Trader 4: Stop trading, start learning, and promise themselves not to start trading unless they have a fully defined strategy with good backtesting results. (less than 5% of all people)
Nash Equilibrium:
What Is Nash Equilibrium?
Nash equilibrium is a concept within game theory where the optimal outcome of a game is where there is no incentive to deviate from the initial strategy. More specifically, the Nash equilibrium is a concept of game theory where the optimal outcome of a game is one where no player has an incentive to deviate from their chosen strategy after considering an opponent's choice.
Overall, an individual can receive no incremental benefit from changing actions, assuming other players remain constant in their strategies. A game may have multiple Nash equilibria or none at all.(Investopedia)
What Is a Zero-Sum Game?
Zero-sum is a situation in game theory in which one person’s gain is equivalent to another’s loss, so the net change in wealth or benefit is zero. A zero-sum game may have as few as two players or as many as millions of participants. In financial markets, options and futures are examples of zero-sum games, excluding transaction costs. For every person who gains on a contract, there is a counter-party who loses.(Investopedia)
Conclusion :
Traders can make decisions and hurt themselves if they deviate from their main strategy based on Nash Equilibrium.
Most Important Question any trader should ask her/himself:
What is my strategy to make money in the market?
How I can make it better???
Refrence:
1- UPST:
2- AFRM;
3-ROOT:
4- PLTR:
5-AMC:
6- COIN:
7- GME:
8- BABA:
9- SPRT:
Comment:
