AFRM Long - Affirm Holdings, Inc. - The Triple Affirmed Play

AFRM Long - Affirm Holdings, Inc. - The Triple Affirmed Play (Flow, Dark pool, and Capital Inflows into Tech)

This long biased thesis is based on the following factors:

• An aggressive series of short term bullish call option flow totaling $413.5k with a strike price of $70 coming in within the last 20mins of the day (July 1st) that exceeded Open Interest.
  
• Approximately $20M in dark pool activity placed at key levels mid day. Although we do not know the nature of this we were able to see it act as respected levels through out the day and are currently trading above these levels. Also one of the dark pool prints came in at a respected fib level, further showing consistency with price action. Continued upside price action will further increased the probability that these trades were a buy.
  
• Price action has been consolidating for around two months and is primed for a move, making the timing of the the options flow orders and dark pool activity that much more relevant to an upward move.
  
• Bank of America Flow Show report released today (July 1st) showed an inflow of $1.1bn into the tech sector.
  
• Bank of America comments came out with AFRM as a high conviction short-term recommendation.
  

Possible Threats:

• The $212.62 fib defined level may show support where price action may struggle or bounce from.
  
• Price has been rallying for the last two months and a half and a double top pattern had formed mid June, but continued price action may have already shown the pattern to have met its price potential.
  
• Short term tactical sentiment for the tech sector is coming to an overheated area and a bearish downtrend may soon show up to push tech stocks, in general, downward.
  
• That nature of the large dark pool trades are unknown and can only be inferred.
  

The July 1st dark pool levels are being used to define the following trade parameters:

• Short Entry: price levels above, but in close proximity of the $68.27 (dark pool print)
  
• Stop Loss: The invalidation of the ascending channel support line (conservative) or the break of lower dark pool level of $67.75 (aggressive)
  

Possible Targets:

• $72.81 (currently) - Anchored VWAP (from all time high)
  
• $79.30 - A support / resistance level that has been respected by prior price action
  
• $85 - A fib level that may coincide with a ascending channel resistance line
  
• $96.80 - The 50% retracement fib level from all time highs to all time lows
  
• Other targets can be based on the fib levels show in the chart or by drawing support lines
  

This thesis/idea is just my opinion based on the information discussed within. None of it should be looked as a recommendation or as financial advice.

AFRM Daily Chart