ADA Inverse Correlation BTC

I believe that ADA is tracking inversely to BTC price moves almost identically. This shows that it is still in a bear market however it also means that there is strong support at $0.39. Which means price may move up if BTC corrects down. However if BTC continues it's current trend upwards we could see price move downwards again.

Another factor to consider is that we need one more wave down to complete the Elliot 5-wave cycle. I believe this wave will be very fast and bounce somewhere near the area shown in the chart. We are 15 days away from the next update which may include staking. So I believe the reversal will happen at the end of February.

Stop loss: 3900-4000 sats

Buy area: 2900-3200 sats

The buy area is set at a modest drop from current price however due to the size of the bubble we had and the hyp in January sentiment could briefly trade ADA down to 2500 sats (or lower) before we see a recovery, however this movement would be very fast. It might be worth doubling down on this trade with a second order at 2500 sats if you have some spare BTC sitting around.

This was my first chart, thanks.

Comment:

Bounce from 3650 to 3850 sats in the last hour could trigger an earlier than expected reversal in the market. This is why I set the stop loss so low.

However if this is a failed breakout we may see lower lows come out of it. My updated view is to buy half at this price point and half at the potential lower low unless you have an especially long view on this coin and don't want to risk missing a breakout at this price point.

Comment:

You may wish to wait a few hours or another day before confirming whether this is a new cycle otherwise you risk buying at the top of a large green candle.

Comment:

Looks like we have one more small bear phase to go before a reversal begins. Congratulations to anyone who has successfully conducted a trade based on my analysis :)

Comment:

Just wanted to mention BTC is up to above $10,800 and it's no co-incidence that ADA is dropping. This is the inverse correlation I spoke of.

Comment:

After monitoring the price some more I have come to the conclusion that unlike other alt coins the price of this coin is tied to the Korean Upbit exchange rather than Bitcoin price movements as Upbit dominates the large majority of the ADA market.

Therefore we can conclude that the recent drop in ADA price was not really a drop at all, but simply following the correlation that Bitcoin appreciated in price relative to ADA which stayed the same price.

Therefore if Bitcoin drops in price now, ADA may appreciate in price at the same rate.

The reason I believe this trend is occurring is due to the low volume of trade in BTC/ADA on exchanges Bittrex and Binance VS the high volume of KRW/ADA on Upbit.

Regards,

saberu

Comment:

Just to make it clear, ADA is priced in Korean Won not in BTC.

The Upbit price is much more important than the Bitcoin price for this coin so I believe a lot of people are being overly pessimistic on their technical analysis currently.