Firstly, I believe that AAPL, much like SPX, is setting itself up for a Wave 4 correction.
A few points on this.
In principle, because my count includes a relatively simple zig-zag for SubW2, we should have something different such as I mention to comply with the principle of elliot wave alternation.
This could be a triangle pattern or a flat correction for instance.
We can see that there is a significant multi-year divergence in place and I believe this to be a possible confirmatory signal. In fact, it seems to me that AAPL never recovered it's RSI from the end of the tech bubble.
So, one of the divergences is 2 decades long.
The most important one however has been in place since 2020.
This is still significant.
RSI divergences are seen as confirmatory signals for the end of moves because Wave 5's are supposed to end with divergences.
That is, the final subwave 5 of a move should print a lower RSI reading than the subwave 3 on any given timeframe.
As you can see there are quite a few divergences in place on the 2W chart.
My view, although I have no short position yet, is that these divergences could be setting up an end to the bull-run for AAPL (at least until a recovery emerges) and interestingly, they coincide with readings on other stocks and indices.
If we zoom in down to daily we can see that there is a significant wedge pattern forming off the 2022 selloff alongside a nasty 7 year RSI divergence.
Drilling-down further displays a diamond pattern and an upside gap roughly at the level 192 and there is a clear RSI divergence that led to the recent selloff.
I think that even if you don't believe a multi-year bear market may be on the cards, that the weight of evidence definitely suggests that AAPL is going to risk off in the near future and implies caution more than anything else.
You can ask of course, what AAPL has to do to invalidate this outline.
Well, that's the problem.
Even if AAPL makes new highs, it would not necessarily violate every aspect of this outline because there are factors in-play on multiple timeframes.
That is to say, even if the diamond is invalidated (which would require new highs), it does not necessarily invalidate the broader long-term outline or any of the substantial divergences.
In fact if we look at the wedge on 4h, that does say that there is some room to grind higher (but the wedge does not specifically demand this to fulfil that part of the outline).
However... the time to discovering what actually happens is only a few months (I consider Spring to be real moment-of-truth).
So although there might be some upside to this (Say, to the 200 level) that does not necessarily invalidate any part of the outline, the actual time involved in that upside is not a particularly long timeframe.
So even if the diamond only leads to a short selloff (or is outright invalidated), and the price resumes it's bull trend then, the wedge suggests that this could only be for a few months.
And of course none of the invalidates the overall wave count or the significant divergences in place.
So even if the short-term bear outline is wrong, the longer-term one may not necessarily be.
That is why I consider this outline to be compelling and why, even if you aren't looking to short it, that it could be a poor long investment going forwards and if I was an AAPL holder (I haven't owned AAPL since about 2015), I would wait for it to clear-out these outlines before I was prepared to jump back in.
A few points on this.
In principle, because my count includes a relatively simple zig-zag for SubW2, we should have something different such as I mention to comply with the principle of elliot wave alternation.
This could be a triangle pattern or a flat correction for instance.
We can see that there is a significant multi-year divergence in place and I believe this to be a possible confirmatory signal. In fact, it seems to me that AAPL never recovered it's RSI from the end of the tech bubble.
So, one of the divergences is 2 decades long.
The most important one however has been in place since 2020.
This is still significant.
RSI divergences are seen as confirmatory signals for the end of moves because Wave 5's are supposed to end with divergences.
That is, the final subwave 5 of a move should print a lower RSI reading than the subwave 3 on any given timeframe.
As you can see there are quite a few divergences in place on the 2W chart.
My view, although I have no short position yet, is that these divergences could be setting up an end to the bull-run for AAPL (at least until a recovery emerges) and interestingly, they coincide with readings on other stocks and indices.
If we zoom in down to daily we can see that there is a significant wedge pattern forming off the 2022 selloff alongside a nasty 7 year RSI divergence.
Drilling-down further displays a diamond pattern and an upside gap roughly at the level 192 and there is a clear RSI divergence that led to the recent selloff.
I think that even if you don't believe a multi-year bear market may be on the cards, that the weight of evidence definitely suggests that AAPL is going to risk off in the near future and implies caution more than anything else.
You can ask of course, what AAPL has to do to invalidate this outline.
Well, that's the problem.
Even if AAPL makes new highs, it would not necessarily violate every aspect of this outline because there are factors in-play on multiple timeframes.
That is to say, even if the diamond is invalidated (which would require new highs), it does not necessarily invalidate the broader long-term outline or any of the substantial divergences.
In fact if we look at the wedge on 4h, that does say that there is some room to grind higher (but the wedge does not specifically demand this to fulfil that part of the outline).
However... the time to discovering what actually happens is only a few months (I consider Spring to be real moment-of-truth).
So although there might be some upside to this (Say, to the 200 level) that does not necessarily invalidate any part of the outline, the actual time involved in that upside is not a particularly long timeframe.
So even if the diamond only leads to a short selloff (or is outright invalidated), and the price resumes it's bull trend then, the wedge suggests that this could only be for a few months.
And of course none of the invalidates the overall wave count or the significant divergences in place.
So even if the short-term bear outline is wrong, the longer-term one may not necessarily be.
That is why I consider this outline to be compelling and why, even if you aren't looking to short it, that it could be a poor long investment going forwards and if I was an AAPL holder (I haven't owned AAPL since about 2015), I would wait for it to clear-out these outlines before I was prepared to jump back in.