Risky hold over ER. Expect a post earnings drop and then up
BABA/9898 is a going to have a choppy ride over the next 24 hours.
We have just seen a multi rally pre-earnings report.
The coronavirus facts aren't clear with a jump in reports of verified cases, however, there may be a change in methodology to reporting.
Prior reports most likely we under-reported.
Factory situation, where are we?
No one going back to work.
Factories waiting for the green light from the government to open.
A huge burden to comply with government requirements so factories may not open on time for fear of non-compliance.
Impact 2-3 weeks knock-on from an official green light for manufacturers to open.
This effectively knocks out over a 1/3 of the quarter and increases supply chain costs for all involved.
Short then long is my play......
Alibaba is killing it this year, this is just a short term blip.
#This is not to be seen advice.
This is a potential playbook that I may follow over the next 24 hours.
For now, I am risk-off due to ER coming out later today and lack of data on the virus.
We have just seen a multi rally pre-earnings report.
The coronavirus facts aren't clear with a jump in reports of verified cases, however, there may be a change in methodology to reporting.
Prior reports most likely we under-reported.
Factory situation, where are we?
No one going back to work.
Factories waiting for the green light from the government to open.
A huge burden to comply with government requirements so factories may not open on time for fear of non-compliance.
Impact 2-3 weeks knock-on from an official green light for manufacturers to open.
This effectively knocks out over a 1/3 of the quarter and increases supply chain costs for all involved.
Short then long is my play......
Alibaba is killing it this year, this is just a short term blip.
#This is not to be seen advice.
This is a potential playbook that I may follow over the next 24 hours.
For now, I am risk-off due to ER coming out later today and lack of data on the virus.