Producer Price Index versus Consumer Price IndexNon greedy measured move not reached yet. When it does get reached, that's the 1st intermission in commodity bull era.Longby Badcharts2
GDP RealityThe Federal Reserve will suggest they projected a slowdown in Economic activity. Effect Indicated, Effect Observed. Solid work. _______________________________________________________________________ Outside of the Matrix, the Depression slumbers on within the confines of Real Sentiment. ....The Deal Breaker. "7" was misstated - "6" is the GDI hedonic, it's been a long overnight Session, apologies.by HK_L612218
The Next Housing Crash will be Catastrophic - Prepare Now!American and international corporations are keeping a large number of properties off the market as investments. These unoccupied flats limit supply in sought locations, creating an artificial scarcity as a result of central bank policies that finally caused an Everything Bubble. The number of corporate purchases of houses has increased dramatically. This has fueled demand in market, but if rental income fall as a result of the recession, corporate purchasers will start liquidating those same assets. As mortgage rates are rising, people are having a difficult time to allocate their income towards mortgage payments especially in times where rising food inflation is also a major problem for majority of Americans and if unemployment rates goes slightly higher then mortgage default will occur on a national scale, leading to another catastrophic housing crisis. In one of our previous analysis we stated, how inflation will peak at 12% and in case of a recession it is certain that inflation will stay on it's trajectory to peak while, Home prices will start correcting. Demand and Supply comparison between U.S Population growth and overall Nonfarm payroll employees against total housing unit supply Listing count of houses actively on sale have increased significantly in June by 18.74% According to the MBA's Refinance Mortgage Applications Index, applications for mortgages refinance fell 5.7% in June and have fallen by 70% year on year to the lowest level since 2000. PPI for Construction material have increased by almost 50% since 2021, forcing builders to shrink margins by 10-12% Conclusion: Since owning a home is becoming increasingly costly, it is prudent to rent one because real estate prices will soon begin to correct. NOTE: Cost of Farmland which have adequate water supply will continue rising due to current geopolitical situation. To leave this analysis on a positive note, We have picked an undervalued stock for you, Unity Software Inc. (NYSE:U) Looking at the future, their is one aggressive company that should be in every tech growth investor's portfolio which have the potential to outpace market, Unity Game engine can render ultra-realistic graphics, The next decade will of The uncanny valley and unity software plays a major role in it, Unity software are down 70% this year and trading 40% below their IPO value, The stock is currently at discount and from a long-term prospective and we believe that it will provide 80% return within 24 months making it a best buying opportunity. To this wonderful community, Be safe and be prepared, Thank you. ❤️by EQTSHARESUpdated 4413
BIGGEST NYSE MOVERS OF JULY!We're coming to the end of July, which has been a great trading month for a lot of traders and what I wanted to do is dive into some of the biggest positive movers we saw across the NYSE. Looking into the stocks that are hot during an uncertain time can give you a really key indication on the sectors which consumer confidence is high in and therefor potentially highlight some opportunity. I'm going to dive into five of the biggest movers pulled from the trading view stock Screener to really have a look at. We will looking into what sector they are in, what is it they actually do and what the value and technical rating from both from Morningstar and from Trading view. VERTICAL AEROSPACE LTD. $EVTL Monthly change - 155.24% Sector - Electronic Technology Morningstar Rating - ☆☆☆ (56% discount from fair value) TradingView technical rating - Buy Company profile: Vertical Aerospace Ltd is engaged in making air travel personal, on-demand, and carbon-free. The VX4, Vertical's flagship aircraft, is a piloted electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) vehicle capable of carrying four passengers. VELO3D, INC. $VLD Monthly change - 91.30% Sector - Producer Manufacturing Morningstar Rating - ☆☆☆ (66% discount from fair value) TradingView technical rating - Neutral Company profile: Velo3D Inc provides an end-to-end metal additive manufacturing solution that helps create the future by printing never before possible parts. The Velo3D intelligent metal additive manufacturing solution is comprised of the Velo3D Flow intelligent print preparation software, the Sapphire production system, and Velo3D Assure, real-time quality assurance software. Its complete manufacturing solution enables clients to build the parts they need, speed their development, and reduce their product costs. OAK STREET HEALTH, INC. $OSH Monthly change - 70.74% Sector - Health Services Morningstar Rating - ☆☆☆ (34% discount from fair value) TradingView technical rating - Buy Company profile: Oak Street Health Inc is a fast-growing network of value-based, primary care centers for adults on Medicare. The company operates a healthcare model focused on the quality of care over the volume of services and assumes the full financial risk of its patients. INNOVID CORP. $CTV Monthly change - 60.84% Sector - Technology Services Morningstar Rating - ☆☆☆☆ (68% discount from fair value) TradingView technical rating - Neutral Company profile: Innovid Corp powers connected TV (CTV) advertising streaming, personalization, and measurement for various brands. Through a global infrastructure that enables data-driven personalization, real-time decisioning, scaled ad serving, and accredited measurement, Innovid offers its clients and partners streamlined solutions that optimize the value of investments across screens and devices. RESOLUTE FOREST PRODUCTS INC. $RFP Monthly change - 57.52% Sector - Process Industries Morningstar Rating - ☆☆☆ (23% discount from fair value) TradingView technical rating - Buy Company profile: Resolute Forest Products Inc is engaged in the forest products industry with a range of products, including market pulp, tissue, wood products, newsprint, and specialty papers. The product range includes market pulp, tissue, wood products, newsprint and specialty papers which are marketed to nearly 50 countries. The company owns or operates pulp, paper, tissue and wood products facilities in the United States and Canada. As a whole, we have a bit of a range of different sectors achieving this top five movers in the NYSE over the past month. Most of these big movers have seen huge down moves recently, which could be seen as great opportunities as a discounted stock from their value. Considering over the past few months, we have seen huge sell offs in stock markets around the world as people get uncertain with the future of the economy and how well it's actually going to be run. What we can see is a huge short market all in the electronic technology or the technology services sector. Especially in those finite tech companies which haven't quite reached profitability yet and were massively bought on speculation on how well they were actually going to perform in the future. The longer this uncertain worry goes on, the more investors are going to be willing to get back into the market and start going back risk on. These stocks which have been shorted heavily based on speculation and fear are going to be great opportunities to get involved. I myself, building a portfolio, am now starting to look into the tech sector as I believe there is a great deal of value involved. I hope you like this quick little outlook on the biggest 5 movers in the New York Stock Exchange over the past month. As always have a fantastic trading week and I wish you all the very best. -Jordonby the5erstrading9
House prices look highThis chart shows United States house prices versus a 52 week moving average and the long term trend line. To me it looks like a parabolic rally has occurred and looks due for a reversal.by MrAndroid2
NY condo and regional housing comparedNY housing highly correlated with condo prices up until great recession, have under performed since then, but then made up most of the difference during pandemic. by anthony-louisburns0
Consumer Sentiment / Without Question - C R A S H Dead AheadThe Greatest Bubble in History is unwinding with fits and starts. Economic Conditions Globally - within the lower 3% Historically. Multiples for Equities - within the Highest 4% Historically in very Real Terms. Monetary & Fiscal Excess - The Greatest in History, bar none. 100% Assured: Reality is brought to bare with the Consumer who is being squeezed like a sponge, wrung out and left to dry up, wither and dustify. During the 1929 Crash, it was the Industrial Centers of our Productive Economy who observed the Level of Commerce, Euphoria and Distended Prices... they Sold everything that was not nailed down. It was not Wall Street - why would they end the Great Game of Wealth Transfer. They would not. The Public merely piled in and joined the Selling. When Confidence fails, it is over for a generation. That was then, from the early 1980s our Economy began to shift to a Tertiary, Consumer-based arrangement. Irrational behavior merely follows suit upon the False signals provided via both Monetary and Fiscal Policies, provided the Drugs to imbue speculations. It has been the exact same throughout recorded History. Human behavior and incentives never actually change. The shift to a Consumer-based Economy was temporary. Great Wealth was accumulated and squandered under the privilege of Dollar Senioarge. Eventually, the dislocations become evident, often decades later. Observe the Financial Environment, the final stage of Crazy is unwinding. There is much further to devolve, there is no outcome that will be tenable to the vast majority of Humankind. All that is required is a loss of confidence in the "Systems" - we see this is taking shape in the very Pillars which support the failing Systems. We no longer have an Industrial Sector of Scope and Scale, but rather a series of Financial Arrangements that are no longer sustainable by any metric. The Can Kick... it's ending - Sooner than later. Wall Street follies at this juncture can and will be even more extreme, count on it as there is nothing left but wild dislocations, absurdities and further Lies, Corruption, and Greed to unravel. __________________________________________________________ TV is missing a large amount of DATA, get it together TV. Recently there have been a number of Prints @ 50. It is far lower than the half-baked UMich Numbers. __________________________________________________________ What has caused every Crash of larger proportions? Sentiment, the Investing Public pulls the trigger and Exits. Insider Sentiment Peaked in March and remains unreported past April 2022. __________________________________________________________ We will see a Crash unparalleled in our lifetimes. It is approaching with absolute certainty. by HK_L619926
Lawrence Lepard's idea, made log."Blue (color may be incorrect) line generates income to pay interest on red (color may be incorrect) line. See the problem? It's just math. #Weimar #FourthTurning #Gotgold" - Lawrence Lepard Oct. 15 2019 via twitter.by FlyTheElephant0
FED vs Inflation - The doomsday chartThe current administration says the FED today has "more credibility than Volcker FED". I didn't think I had to clarify why this is a poor joke, but considering the state of afairs... Let's us examine that statement. Above is a chart comparing the CPI vs the interest rates and is very clear to me how bad this administration is, but nobody seems to realize yet how big of a f**up this is. America's time as the world wealthiest and most powerful country are counted. I don't think China is the future, but certaintly America doesn't have one to boast about it. As far as I can see it, these next generations won't have much of a future at all. The worst part is that the US debt is so large that even if they want it, they couldn't raise the rate more to control inflation, at the current size every 1% increase of the rates would mean 300bl more paid annually by the US government, that means that 2% would end the military budget (the US largest expense). Volcker had to push rate well into 2-digits to control inflation, today that would colapse the whole economic system by itself. That's it boys. This is how the world ends. Not with a boom, but with a click.Shortby Fabiano_Felipe1
SP500 Next 6 months - 1 yearSP500 Next 6 months - 1 year I think SP500 will still fall to 3600 and then hit it hights. Becareful. not financial advice. just technical analysis .by MuhammadTrades3
SP500 Next 6 monthsSP500 Next 6 months I think SP500 will still fall to 3600 and then hit it hights. Becareful. not financial advice. just technical analysis.by MuhammadTrades0
Used Cars & Trucks Price IndexWhat do you mean no sustained inflation? Car & truck price index broke out of a 25 year base. #stagflationLongby Badcharts5
Corporate profits correlation to stocksNot the most earth shattering observation but good to remember. As profits fall, the stock markets follows. A recent Band of America report shows record low profit expectations by global fund managers - lower than anytime in the last 25 years. by stockpreacherman0
That's why the Fed needs to stop hiking before a system collapseThis is a quite interesting chart showing a ratio (black trend-line) of the Interest Rate, 5Y Yield and Federal Debt trading within a Megaphone pattern since the 1990s. Its (Higher) Highs have naturally coincided with peaks in Rate Hikes (red trend-line). The last peak was on October 2018 and currently the ratio just broke within that range again (red area). This shows that the Fed is on a timer and has only limited time to act and stop hiking before they jeopardize collapsing a system that is in place for three decades now and brings balance to the market. The S&P500 (blue trend-line) has seen great periods of growth and stability systemically with this in place as long as the Fed doesn't go off limits with hiking. Do you also think its time they act now and stop or at least ease this round of hiking before total collapse? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Editors' picksby TradingShot4646532
"recessions are launch pads for gold & silver"Producer Price Index versus Gross Domestic Income The government & central bank playbooks to remedy recessions is THE rocket fuel for gold & silver. #stagflation #inflation #gold #silver #fomcLongby Badcharts115
Home-Builders DROP WORSE THAN 2008 - Canary in the Mine screamsLast Time The National Home Builders Index Dropped repeatedly - The 2008 Market CRASH and Deep Recession happened right after. And Now It has Dropped Sharpest in its History. The Canary is the Builder sentiment - Dropped to 55, a drop of 12 points. This is the largest single-month drop ever, with one exception. The exception being April 2020. As you may recall, the world had decide to shut down at exactly that time. Or is it the Scream of the Crashing Market ? by cure4virus10
On inflation and interest rateswww.youtube.com "The Inflation Genie Is Out of the Bottle", I'm still predicting a recession soon, but the the long-term trend for inflation and interest rates seems to have shifted or will shift soon.by Sintar1234
USBOI and SPXThere appears to be a correlation between the U.S. NFIB Business Optimism Index (USBOI) and the S&P 500. When the Stochastic RSI of the USBOI was oversold to the 2.67 level, the S&P 500 tended to outperform thereafter. Interestingly enough, this signal is currently oversold at that level meaning the S&P 500 could rebound soon. Longby philomath0
The Yield curve InversionThe Yield curve has inverted a second time this year, signaling the shift away from short term treasuries into longer term treasuries. This has always been the signal going into recession.by Jfielder_strat2
Consumer price index vs Producer price index!"PPI does the wake up, then CPI the melt up!" Sustained inflation is baked in the cake. Shortby Badcharts4
US inflation, FED rate, housing price and S&P since 2007The indicators are not the same as they were in 2007 housing crises.. what could come out of this? by brainyHope149343
US Inflation RateThe US Inflation Rate Observers an Al-Time High Since the 1980s. Will the US Recover from this level any time soon? or are we yet to see another Higher High?by Mr_0241
Inflation peak in 2025So you think we've hit peak inflation? In this new inflationary period, it seems that the 1065-day cycle between when the FED acts too late, and consumer prices peak, may be back in effect.Longby DollarCostAverage5