Big Picture where rates are headed - Got Gold?Big Picture where rates and commodities are headed - Got Gold? Trade setup that has been guiding Gold higher.Longby AUinvestor0
Capacity Utilization Falling For 56 YearsAre you paying attention? You better if you want to be a trader investor. Can you spot where recessions started? leave a comment below. :)Shortby RealMacroUpdated 3312
BRICS Money Supply Vs US - The Real StoryHere is the real story about BRICS vs the US. BRICS Units of Money Supply 435.46 Trillion. LOL! vs US $20.67 Trillion Would you like to own BRICS Currency? Or the US $? There are 2016 X more BRICS currencies in existence vs the US. A 3rd grader could tell you the BRICS are silly as a viable option to the US $.Longby RealMacroUpdated 6615
Global Central Bank Balance Sheet Cracked!Global Central Bank Balance Sheet denominated in USD has broken the uptrend line down almost 16% or $5 trillion which is about 5% of Global GDP. Why does that matter to you? Because there are $5 trillion more bonds available that have been invested in the bond market which takes away from other asset classes. While global debt has skyrocketed (meaning more NYSE:S available) it does not negate the fact that $5 trillion would have flowed into other asset class investments. Most notable stocks. You can think of it as more bonds available more dollars will be absorbed like a sponge from other investments. So if you are buying stocks you want the Central Bank balance sheet to keep rising via QE. A quick lesson on QE. Central banks buy bonds from the open free market in exchange for $. Less bonds more NYSE:S that can flow into other asset classes like stocks. Note that some people use the term "Reserves" instead of dollars. This confuses many people. All that "Reserves" mean is that those $ reside within the banking system. As such they call them Reserves. Once Reserves are removed from the banking system into cash or other investments they are once again called dollars Yen Pound etc... Lastly, do not make the mistake and call the unwinding of the central bank's balance sheet QT (Tightening). This is a click bait term to imply something bad. Whenever you hear QT replace the (T) with N (Normalizing) QN. As bonds mature and fall off the balance sheet. Unwinding the CB balance sheet is to NORMALIZE! QT would be if the CB's were selling bonds back into the free market at a rapid rate. Which is NOT the case currently.by RealMacroUpdated 3317
Business Loans Money Supply & RecessionsBusiness loans relative to money supply spikes during periods of recessions. As you can see the law of diminishing returns is creating lower highs, As per this chart there is no indication we are in a recession. Why? I would argue because we are still in a recession since 2020. You can't fix an insolvency problem with liquidity.by RealMacroUpdated 8849
$JPINTR - Interest Rates MoMECONOMICS:JPINTR -0.1% November/2023 The Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintained its key short-term interest rate at -0.1% and that of 10-year bond yields at around 0% in a final meeting of the year by unanimous vote, as widely expected. The central bank also left unchanged a loose upper band of 1.0% set for the long-term government bond yield. The board said that it will patiently continue with monetary easing amid extremely high uncertainties at home and abroad. It also mentioned that policymakers will respond to development in economic activity and prices as well as financial conditions. By doing so, the BoJ aims to achieve a price stability target of 2% in a sustainable manner, accompanied by wage increases. The committee reiterated that it will not hesitate to take extra easing measures if needed. source: Bank of Japan by Mr_J__fxUpdated 8
Personal Consumption ExpendituresMacro paradigm shift unfolding before our eyes... Something that very few of us have ever seen before! Be ready! #inflation #gold #silver #crudeoil #copper #uraniumby Badcharts3
Macro Monday 43 - Japan Composite PMI Macro Monday 43 Japan Composite PMI – Japan’s Business Activity (Flash PMI is released Tuesday 23rd April 2024) Unfortunately, I had great difficulty in locating the Japan Composite Flash PMI in chart form on TradingView (it appears to not be available). Instead we will briefly cover the Japan Composite PMI chart which is the final PMI released later on Tuesday 7th May 2024 (for April). We can review the Flash PMI figures that are released tomorrow regardless for an indication. The flash consists of about 90% of the final PMI input thus is a good forward view on how the final PMI will come in on the 7th May 2024. Over the past three weeks we have covered the following three indicators for Japan: 1.Macro Monday 41 - Japan Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) 🚨 Pessimistic but with an improving long term trend. A positive ranging move from 28.6 in Nov 2022 to 39.5 in April 2024. This is the highest reading in c. 5 years, a significant milestone and trend higher. A move above 40.86 would signify a move above the historical average level of consumer sentiment (less pessimistic, as only above 50 it optimistic). 2. Macro Monday 42 - Japan Reuters Tankan Index (RTI) ✅ Business Optimism is high with the Japan Reuters Tankan Index standing at +9, down from the previous month's 10 however firmly in the positive (above zero). 3. Macro Monday 43 - Japan Composite PMI ✅ THIS WEEK we take a quick look at the Japan Composite PMI which is firmly in the positive at 51.7 (above 50 is expansionary and below 50 is contractionary). As you can see from the chart below we have been in an uptrend since Nov 2023 The Japan Composite PMI for March 2024 was 51.7, indicating continued expansion in private sector activity (businesses). This matches the optimistic business sentiment in the Japan Reuters Tankan Index. This marked the third consecutive month of growth and the strongest pace since late September in PMI. The service sector saw solid expansion, while the decline in manufacturing production softened slightly. New orders accelerated to a seven-month peak, primarily led by the service economy. Employment growth was the steepest since May 2023, and there was a marginal rise in outstanding business. Input prices expanded robustly, leading businesses to increase their selling prices at the most pronounced rate for seven months. Overall, the PMI provides insight into the health of Japan’s private sector economy The overview of the past three weeks we covered and what they broadly tell us? 👇🏻 Japan Businesses are in expansion and optimistic whilst the Japanese Consumer remains reserved In contrast to the positive Business Sentiment and Business Activity in Japan, the Japanese consumer is not as optimistic and appears to be trailing business behind sentiment(RTI) and activity (PMI). The Japan Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) came in at 39.5 for March. Whilst this was the highest reading in 5 years for the Japan CCI and demonstrated a trending recovery from lows of 28.6 in Nov 2022, the Japan CCI remains below its historical average level of 40.86. Despite a sizable recovery since Nov 2022, the current 39.5 suggests the Japanese Consumer is still more pessimistic than the historical average. Whats the Japan PMI made up of? The Japan Composite PMI is a weighted average of several key components that provide insight into the health of the private sector economy. Here are the main components : New Orders (30%): Measures the volume of new orders received by businesses. An increase in new orders suggests growing demand and potential future production. Output (25%): Reflects the level of production or business activity. Higher output indicates expansion, while lower output signals contraction. Employment (20%): Tracks changes in employment levels. A rising employment index indicates job creation and economic growth. Suppliers’ Delivery Times (15%): Monitors the time it takes for suppliers to deliver goods or services. Longer delivery times may indicate supply chain disruptions. Stocks of Purchases (10%): Measures inventory levels. An increase in stocks suggests businesses are building up inventories, while a decrease may indicate reduced demand. The above components collectively provide a comprehensive view of economic conditions in Japan’s private sector How to read the PMI chart The Composite PMI varies between 0 and 100, with a reading above 50 indicating overall growth compared to the previous month, and below 50 indicating contraction. PUKA by PukaChartsUpdated 0
Monetary Policy Apr 24I believe the SBP will keep the policy rate unchanged at 22% in the upcoming MPC meeting. Due to the following points: 1. Inflation has been decreasing month by month due to lower food inflation, which holds greater weightage in our national CPI. However, it's important to note that this decrease may be temporary, as it coincides with the wheat cutting crop time, which will decrease wheat prices. But this is a one-time event, and inflation may increase again next month when prices stabilize. 2. The upcoming budget is expected to widen the country's deficit, which will necessitate increased taxes, potentially leading to an increase in inflation. 3. Conversations with the IMF suggest that they may recommend additional taxes, which could contribute to a decrease in inflation. 4. Ongoing tensions between Israel and Iran could lead to an increase in petrol prices, thereby contributing to inflation. As I check many poll results, the monetary policy rate remains the same by Faizansajid0
Houses priced in gold"Houses are NOT expensive. They are actually getting CHEAPER." --Priced in #Goldby Badcharts3
$JPIRYY -Japan Inflation Rate YoYECONOMICS:JPIRYY (March/2024) The annual inflation rate in Japan ticked lower to 2.7% in March 2024 from February's 3-month peak of 2.8%, matching market consensus. There were slowdowns in prices of transport (2.9% vs 3.0% in February), clothes (2.0% vs 2.6%), furniture & household utensils (3.2% vs 5.1%), healthcare (1.5% vs 1.8%), communication (0.2% vs 1.4%), and culture & recreation (7.2% vs 7.3%). At the same time, inflation was stable for food (at 4.8%), housing (at 0.6%), education (at 1.3%), and miscellaneous (at 1.1%). Meanwhile, prices of fuel, and light dropped the least in a year (-1.7% vs -3.0%), with electricity (-1.0% and -2.5%) and gas (-7.1% vs -9.4%) falling at softer paces as energy subsidies from the government would fully end in May. The core inflation rate fell to 2.6% from a four-month top of 2.8%, slightly below forecasts of 2.7%. Monthly, consumer prices rose by 0.2% in March, the most since last October, after being flat in the prior two months. source: Ministry of Internal Affairs & Communicationsby Mr_J__fx3
Interest Rates & Bank PricesRates go up: price go down Rates go down: price goes up Just an observation. Not financial advice. Do your own due diligence.Longby Climberman13a1
debt * fed fund rateFor all those that think the end is near and we will enter an age of calamity... Then this is your chart! #Debtby Badcharts112
Eurozone Core & Headline CPI overviewEUROZONE CPI Eurozone Headline and Core CPI for October both came in as expected (decrease) Eurozone Headline CPI: MoM – Actual 0.1% / Exp. 0.1% / Prev. 0.3% YoY – Actual 2.9% / Exp. 2.9% / Prev. 4.3% (purple on chart) Eurozone Core CPI: MoM – Actual 0.2% / Exp. 0.2% / Prev. 0.2% YoY – Actual 4.2% / Exp. 4.2% / Prev. 4.5% (blue on chart) The chart below illustrates the direction of the current YoY down trend for both Headline and Core CPI however we are still not at the historical moderate levels of inflation desired. You can see these moderate levels of inflation between 0 – 2% from 2015 – 2020 below. by PukaChartsUpdated 4
Macro Monday 42 ~ Japan Business Sentiment (ReutersTankanIndex)Macro Monday 42 Japan Reuters Tankan Index – Business Sentiment (Released this Wednesday 17th April 2024) Firstly lets briefly cover the Japan Consumer Sentiment we covered last week, Japan Consumer Sentiment Last week we covered the Japan Consumer Confidence Index (CCI), which provided a great indication of how the Japanese consumer is feeling. The Japan CCI surveys have a reliable 90.6% response rate from c. 8,400 households. The Japan CCI came in at 39.5 for March last week which was the highest reading in 5 years and demonstrates a trending recovery from lows of 28.6 in Nov 2022. Any figure below 50 on the Japan CCI is pessimistic however historically the index has only ever rose above 50 briefly twice. We discussed how this is due to many factors such as the Japanese being conservative and risk averse. To remedy this and help find a threshold, I used the historical average level of 40.86 as an indicator of above average historical consumer sentiment (however still pessimistic). If we break above the 40.86 level in coming months this would be a good signal of improving sentiment, essentially that the Japanese consumer is less pessimistic than on average, however still pessimistic. Japan Business Sentiment This week we are looking at the Japan Reuters Tankan Index (RTI) which is essentially Japan’s Business Sentiment Indicator. Why is Business Sentiment in Japan an important macro-economic metric to observe? 1.Japan’s manufacturing output for 2021 was valued at $1.025 trillion USD, making it one of the world’s largest manufacturers. The country is known for its high-quality production in areas such as automobiles, electronics, and robotics 2.Japan contributes c.7.2% towards the world’s total manufacturing output, showcasing its critical role in the global supply chain and its influence on international trade. 3.Japan makes up 8% of total global GDP, despite having only 1.8% of the world’s population. 4.Japan is the third largest economy in the world after the US and China Now that we understand that Japan is one of the major manufacturing and economic hubs of the world, lets now try to understand how optimistic or pessimistic Japan businesses are feeling at present. The Japan RTI is collated from data from major leading Japanese companies. 200 manufacturers and 200 non-manufactures advise of improving (above 0) or worsening conditions (below 0). For reference the 200 non-manufacturing companies include the likes of services, retail, finance, and real estate. The Chart You will see, as outlined on the chart, that the Japan RTI is made up of 4 sub categories: 1. Business Conditions (current) 2. Business Outlook (future quarter) 3. Large manufacturing outlook 4. Non-manufacturing sector These subcategories can help in understanding the nuances of sentiment in Japan among different sectors and are crucial for a comprehensive analysis of Japan’s business environment. We might cover these individually when the data is released this Wednesday. I am particularly interested in the future quarter business outlook. Reading the chart Above 0 = Business Optimism Below 0 = Business Pessimism 0 = Neutral The Japan RTI Business sentiment is currently above 0, firmly in the optimistic zone at 10. You can see that we have been rejected from the 12 – 13 level three times since 2022 (Aug 2022, Aug 2023 & Dec 2023). If we break above this level it will be the first time in over 2 years that Japan Business sentiment reached this high. Expectations for the coming release this Wednesday are for a reduction to 9. So expectations are low for this weeks release. Japan Consumer Sentiment has risen from a major low that was established in Nov 2022 and has since been on a significant up trend moving from 28.6 to 39.5. Whilst still in the pessimistic zone the consumer index moves closer towards the historical sentiment average of 40.86. The Japan RTI Business Sentiment appears to have followed suit rising from a low in Jan 2023 a few months later and is now reaching for recent highs of 12 (current reading of 10 with 9 anticipated this week) Both the Japan Consumer Sentiment Index and the Japan RFI Business Sentiment Index are trending towards higher optimism (or less pessimism) but have a bit more work to do to offer some confirmatory action. We will look at the Japan Flash Composite PMI next week which is released Tuesday 23rd April 2024. This will help add perspective in the form of manufacturing/services data directly relating to New Orders, Output, Employment, Deliveries and Stock. In between now and then I will update the above Japan RTI Business sentiment index this Wednesday and update you on Japan CPI which is released this Friday also (something to watch out for). We will gradually get familiar the macro-economic data that matters across the globe here on Macro Mondays. Again, all these charts are available on my Tradingview Page and you can go to them at any stage over the next 5 - 10 years press play and you'll get the chart updated with the easy visual guide I provided. I hope its helpful Thanks for coming along. PUKAby PukaChartsUpdated 3
Macro Monday 38 - German Zew Sentiment Index (extra chart)Macro Monday 38 - Please review the full report shared prior to this. This is only the German chart in Isolation. GERMAN ZEW INDEX The German ZEW Index data is not derived from all the countries in Europe, it is derived from the views of collection of 350 economists and analysts that operate from and represent the German economy. As Germany is the largest economy within the Euro Area, its performance significantly impacts the overall region and this this metric could be considered the economic sentiment spearhead of Europe. Germany is also the 4th largest economy in the world by nominal GDP. As of 2023, its nominal GDP stands at approximately $4.43 trillion. This index could be monitored as a measure of not only European sentiment but as an important global sentiment gauge. How to read the chart The index ranges from -100 (pessimism) to +100 (optimism). 0 is neutral however the historical average reading for the German ZEW chart is 20.79 which is the point where the red area meets the green area on the chart. We show on the chart if we are above or below the average levels of optimism. The current reading of 19.9 indicates current optimism among analysts for the next 6 months, however we are below the historical average of 20.79 thus a definitive move above this level this coming Tuesday could be a confirmation step into potential sustained optimism. The Trend Sentiment made a recovery from -61 in Sept 2022 to +19.9 in Feb 2024. We have moved from deep in negative sentiment territory into positive numbers but we are not above the historic average of 20.79 yet. Lets see how both perform this coming Tuesday. The beauty of these charts is that you can review both on my Trading View at any stage, press play and it will update with the most recent release. This way you will have a full explainer of what this dataset is and can keep yourself up to date on its direction with the color coded map, the average line and the neutral line, all of which will at a glance give you a good indication of where we stand in terms of trend and sentiment. I'll keep you informed here too Thanks for coming along PUKAby PukaChartsUpdated 2
Macro Monday 38 ~ The EU & German ZEW Economic Sentiment IndexMacro Monday 38 The Euro Area ZEW Economic Sentiment Index & The German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (Released this Tuesday 19th Mar 2024) ZEW is the German acronym for the Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung, which translates to the Centre for European Economic Research. There are two releases from the Centre for European Economic research we will cover today both being released this coming Tuesday; 1. The Euro Area ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (Reading of 25 for Feb 2024) 2. The German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (Reading of 19.9 for Feb 2024) EURO AREA ZEW INDEX This index is derived from 350 economists and analysts that operate from and represent the overall European Area. They include economists and analysts from different countries in the Eurozone that are using the Euro as their currency (20 countries out of the 27 members). In summary, while the EU ZEW index provides a broader perspective for the entire eurozone than the German ZEW Index discussed below, the exact methodology for distributing the surveys and their apportionment across individual countries within the eurozone is not explicitly disclosed. Historically, this index has proven very useful as a leading indicator of sentiment for the European Economy and it is closely monitoring for gauging economic sentiment in the EU by market participants. EURO AREA ZEW CHART - SUBJECT CHART ABOVE How to read the chart The index ranges from -100 (pessimism) to +100 (optimism). 0 is neutral however the historical average reading for the EU chart is 21.39 which is the point where the red area meets the green area on the chart. We show on the chart if we are above or below the average levels of optimism. The current reading of 25 indicates current optimism among analysts for the next 6 month The Trend Sentiment made a recovery from -60 in Sept 2022 to +25 in Feb 2024. We have moved from deep in negative sentiment territory to just above the historical average of the chart which is 21.39. GERMAN ZEW INDEX The German ZEW Index data is not derived from all the countries in Europe, it is derived from the views of collection of 350 economists and analysts that operate from and represent the German economy. As Germany is the largest economy within the Euro Area, its performance significantly impacts the overall region and this this metric could be considered the economic sentiment spearhead of Europe. Germany is also the 4th largest economy in the world by nominal GDP. As of 2023, its nominal GDP stands at approximately $4.43 trillion. This index could be monitored as a measure of not only European sentiment but as an important global sentiment gauge. GERMAN ZEW INDEX CHART How to read the chart The index ranges from -100 (pessimism) to +100 (optimism). 0 is neutral however the historical average reading for the German ZEW chart is 20.79 which is the point where the red area meets the green area on the chart. We show on the chart if we are above or below the average levels of optimism. The current reading of 19.9 indicates current optimism among analysts for the next 6 months, however we are below the historical average of 20.79 thus a definitive move above this level this coming Tuesday could be a confirmation step into potential sustained optimism. The Trend Sentiment made a recovery from -61 in Sept 2022 to +19.9 in Feb 2024. We have moved from deep in negative sentiment territory into positive numbers but we are not above the historic average of 20.79 yet. Lets see how both perform this coming Tuesday. The beauty of these charts is that you can review both on my Trading View at any stage, press play and it will update with the most recent release. This way you will have a full explainer of what this dataset is and can keep yourself up to date on its direction with the color coded map, the average line and the neutral line, all of which will at a glance give you a good indication of where we stand in terms of trend and sentiment. I'll keep you informed here too Thanks for coming along PUKAby PukaChartsUpdated 0
MACRO MONDAY 21~NAHB Housing Market IndexMACRO MONDAY 21 NAHB Housing Market Index The NAHB Housing Market Index (HMI) is compiled from a monthly survey issued by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) to U.S. builders in order to measure the current and forward looking sentiment for single-family homes being built or with the prospect of being built in the U.S. In the survey builders rate their current single-family sales, sales prospects over the next six months, and the traffic of prospective buyers. The NAHB Builders consists of more than more than 700 state and local associations with 140,000 members. According to the NAHB these builders account for some 80% of the new homes built in the U.S. Correlation with U.S. Housing Starts The HMI displays a close correlation with “U.S. Housing Starts”. U.S Housing starts are a broader measure of new residential construction for privately owned homes which includes multi-family housing (units & apartment complexes). U.S. Housing Starts is supplied monthly by the U.S. Census Bureau from surveys conducted and is considered a key economic indicator of the overall housing sector. The release of U.S. Housing Starts is the day after the HMI, so the HMI gives us a day head start on the 11thbusiness day of each month (16th Nov), with Housing Starts released on the 12th business day (17th Nov). The correlation between the HMI and the U.S. Housing Starts: The NAHB release on Thurs 16thNov (11th Business Day) came in at 34 ▫️ HMI readings above 50 reflect a generally favorable market view and outlook in the housing sector whilst a reading below 50 indicates weakness in the housing sector. ▫️ Since July 2023 the HMI has fallen from 56 down to 34. ▫️ The HMI registered an all-time high reading in November 2020 at 90 and since then has made a series of lower highs over 32 months. These lower highs combined with a reading below 50 do not bode well on the recession front as you can see from the below chart (red arrows). Similar to recent months, from May – Aug 1989 the HMI peaked its head above the 50 level for these four summer months before tanking down to 20. From May – Aug 2023 the HMI briefly rose above the 50 level in similar fashion and appears to now be reducing at a rapid rate. An interesting level to watch will be the diagonal support line at approx. 31 (dashed line). If held it would be a higher low and could indicate a pause in the decline. A level to keep an eye on because if lost it means we have consistently made lower lows and lower highs. Not a good look at all and we would be eyeing the 20 level in such a scenario. US Housing Starts ▫️ US Housing Starts release on Friday 17th Nov (12th Business Day) which provides for Octobers figures came in higher than expected at 1,372K vs the 1,350K estimate. Building Permits came in higher than expected at 1,487K vs the 1,450K estimate. ▫️ Given that the HMI is in less than favorable territory at 34 (HMI only accounts for single family homes), the higher than expected US Housing Starts could be an indication that larger multi-family housing (units and apartments) are being built at a greater rate than single-family houses. In any event US Housing Starts has been in decline since April 2022 In summary the charts suggest the long term trend for both the NAHB and US Housing Starts are in decline with multi-unit properties (Apartments) being more rapidly built in recent months than individual homes. We will keep an eye on the these metrics going forward and are now aware we can get a days advance indication from NAHB ahead of US Housing Starts being released. PUKA by PukaChartsUpdated 444
$CNGRES- Gold Hunt China continues to purchase Gold, adding 23 Tons of the precious metal just the last month, according to the World Gold Council. Since November, China has accumulated more than 180 Tons of Gold, equating its official Gold State Reserves to around 2,136 Tons. by Mr_J__fxUpdated 7
$EUINTR - Highest Level since 2000The European Central Bank raised Interest Rates by a Quarter of a percentage point Thursday, judging that Inflation remains too High ; even as data points to a deepening economic downturn in the 20 countries that use the euro. The move takes the benchmark rate in the euro area to 3.75%, the highest since October 2000. by Mr_J__fxUpdated 668
Gold vs Mining StocksThis graph shows the mispricing of gold vs mining stocks. Mining stocks show incredible upside potential with very little lowside. This is a rare opportunity.by pete_eighties0
Money Supply and RecessionsMoney supply or credit creation always peaks prior to a Recession. Please see charts for informationEducationby NeilshUpdated 4
Oil Leads -> PPI -> CPI aka Inflation💵 Unpopular Opinion💵 PPI MoM came in today lower than expected at 0.2! But as we can see here below. OIL price is curving up. OIL leads, then PPI ( Producer Price Index ) goes up, leading to Consumer Price Index goes up! 😭 Oil 📈 PPI 📈 CPI 📈 "Soft Landing" they said! More like kick it to tomorrow! Let the future handle recessions and problems! Future Generations pay for our Consumption! Always been! #Bitcoin will be "The Flight to Safety" as Larry Fink BlackRock CEO puts it! 🤑🤑💵💵 Shout out to TradingView for being an awesome platform for Investors and Traders! 📈🚀by facelessorg1