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2023-2024 Exchange Rate Forecasts From MUFG US Dollar: US Economy Set to Deteriorate According to the bank; “While the impact is modest, the fiscal restraint will still be impacting at a time when substantial monetary tightening will also be feeding through to the real economy. It will strengthen expectations of weak recessionary economic conditions emerging...

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Euro: End of Negative Rates Will Support the EUR Exchange Rates As far as the ECB is concerned, MUFG expects that the ECB will increases interest rates at least two further times to combat inflation. The bank considers that the underlying ECB shift away from negative interest rates and the selling of bonds will have an important impact on the...

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The Canadian dollar (CAD) is poised for potential gains, especially if the Bank of Canada's impending policy rate decisions, likely influenced by robust economic indicators, result in a surprise rate hike and policy reconvergence. Bank of Canada's Policy Rate Steady But Rate Hike on Horizon According to Brian Daingerfield however, Head of G10 FX Strategy at...

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The Bank of Japan's (BoJ) monetary stance remained unchanged as they didn't convene, keeping the key policy rate at -0.10% and the 10-year yield at around zero percent due to Yield Curve Control. Several factors contributed to the Yen's weakening, including reassessments of the Federal Reserve's monetary tightening outlook, which generally boosted the...

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USD/JPY has reversed from a high near 141, largely on the back of shrinking expectations that the Fed would hike in June. That is now priced with a 25% probability rather than a 70% probability attached to it last month. We have noted that the current environment should continue to see interest in carry trade strategies – where the Japanese yen scores poorly....

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Amid the looming US debt deadline, recent developments have triggered a turn towards gold as an instrument of risk hedge. Investors are closely examining the potential impact of a US debt ceiling agreement and its implications for federal spending. "Fitch moved the US sovereign rating on a watch negative radar as debt deadline looms. Investors are also assessing...

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Position for dollar weakness. While some top Fed officials have recently sounded more hawkish and data has been relatively strong, we believe the Fed is still closer to pausing rate hikes than other central banks, including the European Central Bank, which looks set to continue tightening. We expect the US dollar to weaken further this year as the US interest...

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The recent drop in inflation rates in Germany, France, and Spain have triggered speculation about a softer eurozone flash CPI figure, suggests Chris Turner, Global Head of Markets and Regional Head of Research for UK & CEE at ING Bank. This comes as the market consensus expects the headline to fall to 6.3% year-on-year from 7.0%, with the core slipping to 5.5%...

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Amid the looming US debt deadline, recent developments have triggered a turn towards gold as an instrument of risk hedge. Investors are closely examining the potential impact of a US debt ceiling agreement and its implications for federal spending. "Fitch moved the US sovereign rating on a watch negative radar as debt deadline looms. Investors are also assessing...

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The US dollar (USD) has staged a comeback against the Pound Sterling (GBP) and Euro (EUR) over the past few weeks, but foreign exchange analysts at MUFG still consider that medium-term depreciation is the most likely outcome. The bank considers that the US Dollar exchange rates are overvalued, especially against the Japanese Yen (JPY) and net capital flows are...

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The US dollar (USD) has staged a comeback against the Pound Sterling (GBP) and Euro (EUR) over the past few weeks, but foreign exchange analysts at MUFG still consider that medium-term depreciation is the most likely outcome. The bank considers that the US Dollar exchange rates are overvalued, especially against the Japanese Yen (JPY) and net capital flows are...

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The US dollar (USD) has staged a comeback against the Pound Sterling (GBP) and Euro (EUR) over the past few weeks, but foreign exchange analysts at MUFG still consider that medium-term depreciation is the most likely outcome. The bank considers that the US Dollar exchange rates are overvalued, especially against the Japanese Yen (JPY) and net capital flows are...

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The US dollar (USD) has staged a comeback against the Pound Sterling (GBP) and Euro (EUR) over the past few weeks, but foreign exchange analysts at MUFG still consider that medium-term depreciation is the most likely outcome. The bank considers that the US Dollar exchange rates are overvalued, especially against the Japanese Yen (JPY) and net capital flows are...

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The US dollar (USD) has staged a comeback against the Pound Sterling (GBP) and Euro (EUR) over the past few weeks, but foreign exchange analysts at MUFG still consider that medium-term depreciation is the most likely outcome. The bank considers that the US Dollar exchange rates are overvalued, especially against the Japanese Yen (JPY) and net capital flows are...

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Quarterly US dollar fundamental forecast In the second reading, Germany's GDP for the second quarter was reduced to -0.3%, which indicates a technical recession. This pushed EURUSD to a two-month low and allowed the price to hit the first of two short targets at 1.0715 and 1.0665. If the situation in the other leading economies of the eurozone does not change,...

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In a fresh look at the outlook for the Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate, Jane Foley, Senior FX Strategist at Rabobank, draws attention to a potential slide for the sterling. "We see scope for cable to drop to 1.22 on a 3-month view," says Foley, Senior FX Strategist at Rabobank. This outlook indicates a drop in the value of the pound against the dollar by...

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Economists at UBS, led by Chief US Economist Jonathan Pingle, have also explored potential market reactions to a breach of the X-date. Notably, the US Dollar (USD), Japanese Yen (JPY), and Gold emerge as key assets that could be significantly influenced. In most scenarios, Pingle anticipates a softening of the US Dollar amidst rising uncertainty. Interestingly,...

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Economists at UBS, led by Chief US Economist Jonathan Pingle, have also explored potential market reactions to a breach of the X-date. Notably, the US Dollar (USD), Japanese Yen (JPY), and Gold emerge as key assets that could be significantly influenced. In most scenarios, Pingle anticipates a softening of the US Dollar amidst rising uncertainty. Interestingly,...