If this pattern plays out, it would be disastrous for stocks and bonds in my opinion, as bonds become more attractive in yld and stocks traders (massively leveraged) have to deleverage.
Not sure the last time a H&S top worked in the indexes. We shall see
There is not way this should be happening in the junk world. it's a massive short imho
the market. It controls the direction of $tnx which controls next move in $iwm and $gld There is an outside shot we get a temporary spike to 232 on the crb index, but I think that is it. High portability that we get a substantial correction sometime soon. Tnx looks like an inverted H&S bottom but that would require a super cycle move in commodities beyond 232...
RSI divergence and it pressing and slightly through major DT line says this needs to pull back and consolidate before moving higher and confirming a potential breakout. Fundamentals supportive of further upside I expect a few wks in the 72-76 range is possible
Similar time of year, similar case of inflation creeping back in and a housing bubble to boot. Fed needs to begin draining liquidity from $mbs Likely to cause a hiccup in the market
I'm gonna state it like this in my Mr. T voice. announcer: What do you predict if kre drops below the blue support line? Mr. T.: Pain
Odds are high that we have seen or are very close to a peak in inflation.
I would be careful piling into commodities right here. May have a little more upside, but downside risk is developing. Energy carrying it right now. Not to mention the bearish RSI divergence forming as well
Expect choppiness in commodities for a while. Major LT overhead resistance and DT line capping run for now
Just look at Thomson reuters crb index and the probability that the dollar is bottoming. Barron's article points to everyone being bullish on inflation trade and boat is tipping to one side decidedly. we could see an uptick from ST oversold condition to con't a little bit, but I expect that commodites have topped for now and will consolidate for a while before...
I expect a bounce then resumption of downward price trajectory
I expect an ABC correction here before we move lower then it's full on chop for remainder of summer. Get your forks and knives out.
If this diagonal support fails then we have a fair amount further to fall.
Easily a 7% move possible vs max upside in spy of 2-5
I still favor value over growth. this may be your last buying opportunity.....or not Which will it be?
If so, time to buy the reflation trade again
Looks like a large basing pattern about to breakout above 19ish with a target of 28.50