Fundamentally, According to the COT analysis which I do every weekend on youtube, The Non commercial traders in the Commitment of traders report have been extremely long on the EUR and extremely short on the CAD. Technically, the market is sitting on previous support where price has been rejected before. Watch for reversal candlesticks around this zone and buy....
BTCUSD possible sell set up forming. Keep in mind we have been consolidating since last year June, so any impulse to the downside may last for three or four months. It will be a clean, powerful move to new lows, possibly below double digits.
Looking at the daily TF, the trend looks bearish indeed. But, on the slower monthly TF, the uptrend is very strong and established. When the dust settles by the close of the monthly candle, all this daily downtrend will be just but a wick to the downside.
The market is heavily long on the EUR, according to the last week's COT report, where the Non Commercial traders are Net long with (+169400), the highest figure so far in 2023.According to the same report, the Non commercial traders are heavily short on JPY, With a net short of (-68744). EURJPY is at the highest price for the last nine years since 2014 December,...
The Dollar is under pressure from a lot of factors. First off, the short term 3 month treasury bills have higher yields than the long term 10 year Notes and 30 year bonds. This puts the Fed (and the Dollar) under pressure from the long term investors, since they are being compensated less than the short term investors, despite the fact that they are taking on more...
Sentiment on the NASDAQ on the Commitment of traders shifted from bearish to bullish on April 18 2023, and has continued to be more bullish with each report released thereafter. Its no coincidence this is happening when Nasdaq is making new highs every week. A breakout and close above 13700 will expose Nasdaq to the previous November/December 2021 All time highs at 16800.
A common trend with the USA stock market indices, is that the indices made up of less companies such as US30 and US100 tend to lead and establish trends before the other indices which are made up of more companies such as SP 500 and RUSSEL eventually join in. This is a no brainer since for the large indices , there are specific stocks which are not as volatile as...
Many novice and advanced traders try to complicate trading with complex strategies and indicators. In my experience, trading comes down to three simple things. Support. resistance and breakout. Add some knowledge on reversal ( for fakeouts) and continuation ( for breakouts) candlesticks and you are good. On AUDJPY, last week candle was extremely bullish on high...
Gold sold off from the 2065 highs ( previous long term resistance) in May,23. Recent fundamentals and Data from the US, especially the FOMC pause in the interest rate of the dollar at 5.25% , was expected to bring the bond yields down, and stabilize the dollar. However, that is not the case. The DXY has been on a downward spiral, which has made GOLD to rise in...
For the first time in 2023, the Non Commercial traders in the COT report went long on the GPB on 18th April 2023.The net long figure on 18th April was (+1302).This figure more than tripled in the next COT report released last Friday 25th April 2023 to (+5839). The change from net short to net long in the COT report coupled with a breakout will provide a strong...
USDCHF represents the most clear structure for where the dollar might find support in the market soon. Other pairs such as EURUSD and GBPUSD have already broken the previous days/weeks highs. Watch for rejection of USDCHF with a hammer, an engulfing pattern or a Morning star on H4 after May 3 FED decision and buy to previous highs.
RBA and BOC both hiked their interest rates this week. However, on the slower Monthly timeframe, the dominant trend is bearish. Last month's candle closed as a shooting star, with high volume, signaling more downside.
The market has been consolidating at this level for weeks. Price has been rejected here before on the slower timeframes, and the market is forming a double top on the faster H4 TF. With the DXY showing bullish signs, its very likely this is a selling climax for Cable.
US Oil tagged All Time Highs on at 126.70$ per barrel on March 2022 before the start of the downward spiral that has seen price fall by almost half to 64.8$ per barrel on March 2023. OPEC has come out in recent times with stringent measures to cut the volume of barrels produced per day with the intention of stabilizing oil prices. Its important to note that once...
The march 2023 support has been holding for the last few days. I am bearish on bitcoin, but its very likely that the consolidation at this level is not over and we might see another leg up (short term).
The 1.9780 support, which is also previous resistance is holding. An entry with a stop loss below the support and take profit at the previous highs would give a good risk to reward ratio of 1:5.
On March 2022 when the FED started hiking interest rates, the only JPY pair that broke out was USDJPY ( 114.00-153.00). During that time EURJPY was consolidating. One year later, the market is at a critical resistance zone on the slower Timeframes. A breakout and retest will expose EURJPY to a bull run.
There have been multiple rejections on this weekly resistance in 2015, 2018, 2019 and most recently in 2020. What are the chances of the bulls being rejected here again?, after all the market has been in an uptrend for some time, since August 2022, and a closer look at the weekly candles shows that the bulls are losing momentum.