novvoll12

novvoll12

7-10-16 RTH @79.45 – bullish – Rallies to challenge the 80.10 all-time-high RTH rallied strongly off the 74.01 low (June 27, 2016) to post a new YTD high at 79.46 (July 8, 2016). Bullish momentum suggest it is likely to challenge the 80.10 all time high (December 14, 2015). A decisive break through the latter is needed to confirm a 19-month base over the...

novvoll12

7-4-16 SHCOMP@2988.6 – near-term bullish – Clears the 2945.9 resistance, forms a 2-month base SHCOMP broke above the 2945.9 range resistance (June 3, 2016 daily high) to form a 2-month base over 2781.2 (May 12, 2016 daily low). The base breakout signals further bullish momentum towards 3036.8 (38.2% retracement of the 3684.5/2638.3 downswing) next. Above the...

novvoll12

7-7-16 XAU @102.50 – bullish – Posts 23-month new highs following breaking through 200-week MA XAU extended the strong rally from the 77.99 low (May 23, 2016 weekly low) through 93.66 (May 2, 2016 high) and the 200-week moving average (currently at 92.17) to post new 23-month new highs. Further upside opens 106.01 (July 2014 monthly range high) and then 115.21...

novvoll12

7/4/16 SPY @ 209.92 - neutral – Forms a wide-range monthly bar in June, signals more volatility beneath key resistance SPY staged a sharp reversal last week, rebounding from the 198.65 low (June 27, 2016) to reach 210.49 (July 1, 2016 daily high). As a result, the move formed a 6% wide-range bar for the month of June, signaling more volatility beneath the key...

novvoll12

6/26/16 USDCAD@ 1.3075 – bullish- Bullish momentum signals further upside USDCAD rallied to a new 3-week high at 1.3098 (June 24, 2016). Strong bullish momentum suggests scope remains for further upside. Above 1.3098 would extend higher towards 1.3188 (May 23, 2016 prior weekly high). Above the latter would confirm a higher base over 1.2654 (June 6, 2016 weekly...

novvoll12

6-26-16 USDCHF@ 0.9747 - bullish bias – Bullish reversal last week signals more upside USDCHF reversed sharply higher off last week’s .9521 low (June 24, 2016) to form a near-term 3-day bottom. Further strength above .9802 would extend the bullish momentum towards .9956 next (May 30, 2016 weekly high). Above the latter would confirm a higher base at .9521 and...

novvoll12

6-26-16 SPY @ 203.13 - bearish – Expects further consolidation within the 2.5-year range near term SPY stalled at the 212.52 resistance area (June 6, 2016 YTD high), just shy of the 213.78 all-time peak (May 18, 2015). Subsequent 3-week decline probed the 3-month 202.78 range support (May 16, 2016 weekly low), suggesting near-term failure to challenge the tough...

novvoll12

6-26-16 XAU @93.70 – bullish – Posts 21-month new highs following upside break thru 4.5-year down trendline XAU rallied strongly from the 38.36 all-time low (January 2016) to post a new 21-month high at 95.36 (June 2016). The move was supported by the upside break through the 4.5-year falling trendline (September 2011/September 2012 lower highs), suggesting...

novvoll12

6-19-16 USDCHF@ 0.9588 - bearish bias – Minor double top drives further downside USDCHF reversed off the .9956 minor double top area (May 30, 2016 weekly high) to post a new 6-week low at .9571 (June 13, 2016). While the .9686/.9796 (June 13, 2016 weekly high/April 18, 2016 prior range high near 50 week moving average) area caps, scope remains for further...

novvoll12

USDJPY@ 104.59 - bearish bias – Posted a 22-month new low USDJPY reversed off the 111.44 high (May 30, 2016 weekly lower high) below the 105.54 prior low (May 2, 2016 weekly low) to post a new 22-month low at 103.55 (May 13, 2016). Near term over-sold conditions warn of bounces. While the 105.54/106.20 (May 2, 2016 weekly low/200 week moving average) area caps,...

novvoll12

SPY @ 206.52 - bearish – Expects further consolidation within the 2.5-year range near term SPY stalled at the 212.52 resistance area (June 6, 2016 YTD high), just shy of the 213.78 all-time peak (May 18, 2015). Subsequent decline via a spinning top reversal pattern suggests bears are back in control. It is likely to see a retest of the 202.78 prior low (May 16,...

novvoll12

6-19-2016 AAPL @ 95.33 - bearish – The 100.73 resistance could cap bounces near term AAPL stalled at the 100.73 resistance area (May 23, 2016 weekly high). Subsequent decline suggests bears are back in control. It is likely to see a retest of the 89.47 prior key low (May 9, 2016 YTD low). Further weakness below the latter would open the long-term support zone...

novvoll12

AAPL @ 100.35 - neutral – Consolidates within a 7-month falling wedge above long-term support AAPL rebounded off the 89.47 weekly low (May 9, 2016 YTD low), forming a 7-month falling wedge. Further consolidation within the wedge pattern is expected. Only an upside break above 112.39 (April 11, 2016 weekly high) would signal completion of the wedge breakout and...

novvoll12

USDCHF@ 0.9929 - weekly bullish bias – Falling wedge breakout support zone should hold ahead of further upside USDCHF rallied over 500 bps over the last four weeks (starting from 0.9443 May 2, 2016 weekly low), retracing 61.8% of the 1.0256/0.9443 fall. The bullish bias remains as all the indicators are still pointing upwards. While the 0.9796/0.9740 support zone...

novvoll12

USDCHF@ 0.9752 - weekly bullish bias – Challenges 3.5-month falling wedge resistance USDCHF rallied sharply higher off the 0.9443 low (May 3, 2015), quickly approaching 3.5-month falling wedge resistance (from January 29/March 10, 2016 highs). Weekly, daily and intraday technical indicators (as shown on the charts) all lined up with a bullish bias. The pair is...

novvoll12

ICE@ 258.16, Weekly neutral bias – The 268.89 peak area could cap near term ICE rallied off the 227.22 swing low (March 7, 2016 weekly low) to look to challenge the 266.74/268.89 topping zone (November 9, 2015 weekly high/February 8, 2016 all-time peak). The area is near the 2.5-year rising wedge resistance (linking January 6, 2014/November 9, 2015 weekly highs)....

novvoll12

USDJPY@ 106.50 – Intraday bearish and oversold – Posts new YTD lows USDJPY reversed sharply lower from the 111.88 area (April 24, 2016) to post series of lower highs and new YTD lows. The pair is testing the 38.2% key retracement area of the 77.13/125.85 upswing (September 2012 monthly higher low/June 2015 monthly high). The oversold condition warns of pullbacks....

novvoll12

AUDUSD@ 0.7668, daily neutral bias – Forms a 4-week flat range in a 3-month uptrend AUDUSD rallied off January’s .6826 low (January 15, 2016) to reach .7736 (April 14, 2016 high, near 61.8% retracement of the .8162/.6826 fall) while forming a 4-week flatish range, consolidating the 3-month uptrend. Near term, .7491 and .7414 are support levels around the rising...