maxw3st

maxw3st

The pair is putting in its second bottom here (first was 2016) after bottoming last in 2008/09. An XABCD assessment puts a possible conservative target at 0.8071 from the Jan. low at 0.6735. That low makes the initial stop loss (subtract 5 more at least)

maxw3st

The euro should continue to play out the unwinding of premature exuberance over a rate hike for 2018. It didn't happen, but the pair spent 2017 on the rise and did not finish unwinding the premium in 2018.

maxw3st Updated 

I think this should go up into the region above 1.64. Looking at the two shapes in the rectangles shows the second is inverted and aimed higher, about 400 pips higher.

maxw3st Updated 

Currently the pair is bullish. I'm hoping the arch is ignored altogether, but it is a path the pair has followed in the past. Broke above key resistance this week. Next level up will be ~1.6152, then 1.6357. Hoping it gets back up over 1.64, but it may not. That January spike was entirely due to action from the Yen melt up, so it creates an anomaly, but it can get...

maxw3st Updated 

This image is primarily to replace the first version. The idea is simply that if the EURUSD repeats something like the last pattern of moves it's made twice now it should bring the pair close to the top of its channel ~1.1420, maybe a little higher.

maxw3st Updated 

There are some key levels to watch. Current price 1.1320. Daily close below 1.1289 and we're below the channel. 1.1216 resumes the down trend within the down sloping wedge. I'm looking for a bounce or continuation at the wedge bottom ~1.1120 (old minor support + current wedge).

maxw3st

Waiting for the current leg up to finish . Expecting a shorting zone between the two bright green lines. Looks like one more little wave to the top of the channel.

maxw3st

The EU is involved in a med. term descending wedge and a shorter term rising channel (on the daily chart). We are currently within the intersection of the two. A number of directions and levels are possible from here in the short term. This is just a few of them.

maxw3st Updated 

The pair is currently centered in its 2018 range. I will wait for it to return to the top of the range to add to a short (1.66808)

maxw3st

EA: could reverse here, or it could continue to range bottom ~1.54 and then retrace. Holding short, waiting to add to it.

maxw3st

Technically this is a break of a support level, but it looks more like just continued consolidation in a tight range. It just dropped ~800 pips in 4 days. More retracement would be better.

maxw3st

I need to see a daily close below 1.60, then continuation not just a pop back into the range. If this is a real break down then it's time to wait for a drop and rebound to test 1.60 as support turned resistance and enter short.

maxw3st

to correct previous post

maxw3st

A little perspective after the week's volatility. Weds, Thurs and Fri were certainly dramatic, but in overall, fundamental terms we are still way up there. It could certainly go higher with current sentiment, but the odds favor the other direction. Fundamentally my own opinion is that Australia will be raising rates (and continuing to have better growth) well...

maxw3st

This one will go higher with risk sentiment, but looks to be in a historically extreme high zone. May well be going for 1.65. I think we'll see a failure to progress much past 1.6250. Technicals look higher also. There's a little bearish RSI divergence on the hourly, but the daily still looks higher.