Two possibilities exist. I favor the short trade back to the long term trendline.
OBJECTIVE Probability vs SUBJECTIVE probability. Subjective probability has no mathematical calculations. We make assumptions on what we know. OBJECTIVE probability on the other hand, is a bit more scientific. MARKET trends are categorised as SECONDARY, PRIMARY and SECULAR Secular trends last typically 5 to 25 years Primary trends 6 to 8 months Secondary...
In any market place price is important.
In a perfect world, I would see this as the probable path for btcusd.
Sometimes great trading comes from viewing the market in a simple and clear way. Its easy to cloud our judgement with the noise the market tends to create. I have found that trading the probabilities is easier than trying to find sure predictions or trades. Trendlines gives us areas where we can easily find great probable trades with good risk to reward returns.