floring67

floring67 Updated 

Back after a while, and still not for long. Well Elliott waves seem effed up by all the pumps and dumps. After a truncated 5th wave and a failed ABC retracement (pumped B wave then shortened C wave), we are forming a triangle which can be ascending or symmetrical. I will remind you that we had a perfectly mirrored situation in March 29 - April 12 time frame: we...

floring67 Updated 

After a bull trap in the ascending wedge, we've retraced from impulse wave 5; I think we are in a corrective ABC pattern; we are now building the 4th subwave of the A wave that should end at the 78.6% fib level of wave 5. Wave B should retrace at the $9200 level that has become resistance and then go to the $8300 support. But take care, the big cyan rising wedge...

floring67 Updated 

So we had an impulse wave, it was not an ABC correction. After a couple of whale pumps and short liquidations, what initially seemed to be an ABC wave was in fact a 4th wave of an impulse wave. Even if the volume was not so big, RSI nearly overbought and resistances strong, we've managed to cross some important levels, exited above the uptrend channel and heading...

floring67 Updated 

The bear trap confirmed, the rising wedge broke up even if it shouldn't have, but wave patterns are not clear at all. Subwaves are hidden by pumps and dumps, so it's quite hard to say on what kind of wave we are now. It does not really look like an impulse wave, the volume is way too low. It looks like whales are fighting hard to push the price up, but without...

floring67 Updated 

I've been complaining about patterns failing in the last 2 weeks; I am obviously not the only one who noticed that. But now, retroactively counting the Elliott waves, I think I might have spotted another incoming bear trap. First of all, what if many TA's including myself have got it wrong, and the first pump wasn't an impulse wave 1, but only a failed bull flag?...

floring67 Updated 

Patterns are going mad again. We can clearly see that we've had a bear flag breaking up, contrary of what it was supposed to do, just after a bull flag breaking down out of nothing. At least for the bear flag we had a support level at $7912. The last movement was clearly a pump, shorts were liquidated without building a lot of longs. It looks like somebody is...

floring67 Updated 

After the impulse wave has ended, we seem to be in a ABC correction, if not quite an impulse downtrend wave. The ABC scenario is the less bearish one, and I think the most probable for now. Because the bulls are about to exhaust their forces, I don't think the bears will put much effort into the correction. This B (or 2?) wave should retrace either here at the...

floring67 Updated 

We've just retraced to 4th Elliot wave in the 12345 pattern, with smaller retracements than I've expected. That is because bulls exhausted their resources trying to reverse the bearish trend, but were failing to build volume and RSI was overbought. For building more momentum, I think deeper retracements would have been needed. So I am expecting the 5th wave not to...

floring67 Updated 

Should I call it a bullish ascending triangle to send us into ~$8500 range, or a bull pennant to teleport us to $9000 (less likely) or a bearish ascending wedge that will slowly reverse the trend and lead us to $7500? The 2h chart shows a bit of the three, I think this is why most TA's are silent. Anyway one of the three scenarios will happen in less than 4 hours....

floring67

We have bearish MACD on the 2h chart, retracement downtrend has begun. However an impossible patterns succession happened, and I think it still continues. First, we 've had a morning star under the $7912 resistance/support level, pushing us up towards $8000; then immediately an evening star formed, which should have meant a trend changement - going downtrend...

floring67

So the bull flag broke out but was stopped at the $7900 resistance, where a couple of liquidated shorts sent us above in an uptrend to $8190 resistance. First Elliot wave retracement should happen here, if whales do not play again. With all those pumps, it's really hard to make any reliable TA, and the risks are high, but as the market now moves free for a while,...

floring67 Updated 

As you can see in my updated 2h chart, the triangle was in fact symmetrical; the base of the uptrend channel mislead me to think it was rather descending. Whales took advantage on the market indecision and mixed signals, and pumped the price, even if indications were rather bearish. Such pumps are almost impossible to predict and most TAs failed here. However I...

floring67 Updated 

Ok, so first of all I think I've wrongly counted the Elliott waves; what I've first thought to be a failed bullish impulse wave was in fact the A wave of an ABCDE triangle wave; cause the initial ABC didn't confirm. Now we're reaching the end of the E wave. Here we're in a dilemma. The triangle is not exactly flat, neither ascending. We can consider it symmetrical...

floring67 Updated 

In the last 50 minutes, whales liquidated about 15 short positions on Okcoin aiming from $7030 to $7130 and shaking the market indecision. I think the B wave is now complete, because the $7072 resistance line was a very strong line recently. I guess retracement for the C wave is here.

floring67

Ok, I said I have some short holidays so I would not update, but I have a moment and the situation is too interesting. The wave B was a little longer than I've initially expected, cause whales were playing with liquidating shorts. However wave C retrace did happen at 61.8% Fibonacci level, cause the last short was a bull trap. That's why it's difficult to predict...

floring67 Updated 

A new, smaller pennant is forming. The normal target is about $200 lower. If it manages to break the strong support here at $6550 and the uptrend grey line, we should test support at about $6400, but chances are to go lower.

floring67 Updated 

So, the bigger H&S pattern didn't confirm and we went sideways. But volume and amplitude decreasing indicate a pennant. That means the trend should breakout down, with the target ~$6100.

floring67 Updated 

If such a huge H&S would confirm, the target is $5100 or lower! It was also the initial target of my C main Elliott wave which was shortened by the bounce from $6400. Also, the MACD bullish cross failed, making this scenario very likely! From my point of view, I wouldn't buy now.