FCPO has reached the extreme upper channel (dotted) at 2265 price level during previous session and is expected to make its way downwards. That being said, we cannot rule out that the correction phase is not over yet. On hourly chart, we can see a possible A-B-C-D-E triangle, governed by the red lines, is currently forming. If price manages to cross below the...
At hourly chart, there is a strong indication that wave (4) is developing into a 5 sub-wave triangle (the a-b-c structure can be clearly seen in each sub-wave). The structure looks complete (wave (5) is about to begin) but we are expecting FCPO to make its final touch at the supply zone (2240 - 2260) before it starts its journey further down south. The uptrend...
At weekly chart, FCPO is about to complete wave (4) and we are expecting wave (5) to start developing this week or early next week. Wave (4) development is quite evident by looking at the sluggish nature of price movement (compression), bound by converging red triangle (rising wedge). Wave (4) is expected to complete around 2240 - 2260 with maximum retracement at...
Primary Count (Black): The upward count of wave C of (4) is still valid provided price does not breach through the support zone (gap) between 2164 - 2180. We should see FCPO price to descend to the retracement area (0.5 - .618) between 2170 -2179 to complete another correction (wave (y) of (2)) before gathering strength to move back up. Alternate Count (Green):...
Wave (c) of (x) is expected to terminate around 2157 - 2166 If opening price is below 2157 (gap down), an expanded flat correction is expected with termination of wave (c) of (x) is around 2121 - 2129 If opening price is above 2190 (gap up), 2230 level is within reach
EW Count (Black): The 3-drive pattern failed to materialize as FCPO slid lower during early session last Friday before it gathered bullish momentum towards the end of session, retesting the broken lower channel (red). Uptrend will resume and is expected to reach the 2240 - 2260 area (supply area), should it is able to break the 2206 and 2220 levels. We should...
As per my previous analysis , FCPO is now in the corrective phase and is currently moving towards the end of completing wave iv. Scenario #1 (Black count) Wave iv is characterized by a 3 - drive pattern moving upwards, bound by the deceleration channel. The first 4 sub-waves (A, B, C and D) had already completed and we should see the completion of the final leg...
It is already 10 years since commodities super cycle took commodity markets to the all time high and soybean oil (ZL) market has been in the corrective period ever since. In a monthly chart, we could see that the correction of larger degree takes in the form of flat correction (3-3-5). As far as supply and demand (SnD) is concerned, there are 2 demand zones of...
Last week, FCPO price penetrated the (2186 - 2250) area and closed in to the next weekly demand zone (2089 - 2132) in a decisive manner; a clear manifestation of wave iii. FCPO is expected to respond to this area early this week for a technical rebound (wave iv) and should be moving upwards in a corrective fashion. The acceleration channel (so does the Fibonacci...
Weekly EW count indicates FCPO is currently at wave V of (c). Next week we could see market will attempt to pierce through the demand zone (2186 - 2250) amid the trade war tension between the US & China. The price could edge up slightly in the early week though; buoyed with weaker Ringgit Malaysia. The seasonal cycle of palm plantation is expected to ramp up the...
Overall FCPO sentiment is still bearish. Extended wave iii is expected to terminate around 2190 - 2205. With a few Fibonacci levels around the 2200 psychological level (as well as being a significant SNR), the parallel channel should hold and we should see a small retracement upwards (wave iv). If that is the case, the best position to join the bearish ride is...
Overall trend is still downward. Scenario #1 Wave iv has completed (or still in progress). Should wave iv is still in progress, the upward movements should be limited to 2287 - 2297 area. Scenario #2 Price is moving downwards within the channel, creating an extended wave iii. Price could go down until 2180 - 2210 before some retracement (wave iv) ...
I have laid out 2 possible movements for today as depicted in the chart. The downwards EW count is merely a projection and will be updated accordingly from time to time as the market gradually unfolds. Entries Short #1: 2297 - 2305 (Stoploss around 2310) Short #2: 2320 - 2329 (Stoploss around 2335) Alternate count (major upwards movement) can be technically...
Short entry : Confluence area around 2320 - 2330 Stop loss : 2335 Price needs to cross below 2289 and 2270 in order to rule out alternate count.
Primary count : Last Friday, the 2348 level which corresponds to 0.5 retracement of wave (iii) had given an outright rejection to the market. Interestingly, the 2340 level which corresponds to 2.618 projection of wave (a) managed to stand the second day attempt as well. The perfect confluence between this invisible resistance area (2340 to 2350) and the previous...
Primary count: FCPO is expected to move further downwards if it manages to break the (2300 - 2315) area and if it succeeds to maintain below 2300 level. The chance gets even better if price is able to cross the 2289 invalidation point. Alternate count: Price may respond at the (2300 - 2315) area and moving higher to the next supply /gap zone at around (2378 -...
On a monthly chart, EW count suggests FCPO is consolidating within the 5 - wave triangle (dating back to 2008) with the price is still moving further down south to complete the fifth wave (E). FCPO is expected to move towards the rock bottom area of 2080 - 2130 before bouncing upwards