This exhibits much better symmetry and proportionality than the previous 3 drive published using the more common 1.272 fib ext instead of 1.618 Looking for a long in the 1.2900/30 area with a stop placed with consideration of the 40 pip spike low of D2 hoping that D3 will not be any bigger. Of course markets always do something more/less than a traders...
I think it's rather rare to find a 3 drive with 1.618 as the swing points. This looks fairly harmonic even though the bounce from D1 was extremely shallow - this pattern also seems to combine with bottom trend line and support from way back in August. If this is also the end of a larger degree 4th Elliott Wave , as many counts have suggested the profit potential...
Rather classic/text book Butterfly that combines with the 1.618 fib ext of A to B and a small shelf of support. Smart stops are much too large for my psychology at 100+ pips so I'll be hoping the candlesticks fine tune the entry and stops in the 1.5400/40 area.
Within a larger degree triangle formation ------- IF a reversal is at hand THEN this is a likely place. Looking for immediate reaction so stops are tight BUT, maybe smart stops should be above the highs of 1.1034 ?? May have to reenter OR be nimble enough to go with a stop and reverse if these highs break. As always the candlesticks may yield a trigger and...
1st short set up is the ab=cd that is not particularly valid with only a .558 ratio of B to C - then - the measured move @ .7240 3rd set up is the Bat around .7270 that is also the 1.618 fib ext of A to B. This offers the best possibility for a market reaction and the lowest risk with stops just above X. Elliottwave also offers the look of a 3 wave zig zag. With 3...
This Butterfly tends to support this previous wave count: for a short zone with reasonably well defined risk. Perhaps smart stops will show more precise clarity when price reaches Pt. D
5 waves up is about the only thing that is clear atm. How that fits into the larger degree is VERY debatable. However, extremely overlapping price action suggests the probabilities lie with one more upside swing before the larger downward trend resumes. For now, a clear long entry trigger from the candlesticks would build a little confidence and define the lowest...
Arguably, not even a valid Bat pattern with the B to C leg less than .382 ratio. The resistance zone of about 100 pips is huge as is the stop zone about 100 pips. (larger than my psychology can endure) Maybe the candlesticks will yield an enticing entry, but, I'll probably not accept unless it happens near the top of resistance for the lowest risk.
Perhaps it's all about your rules ~~~~~ And tolerance psychology for patiently holding negative pips ? I'm hoping the candlesticks yield an obvious trigger for a long with stops in the .886 area so there is the lowest risk. Might have to enter this one twice
Neither Cypher or Shark pattern fits my strict rules, {{ it's the A to B leg @ .539 that messes with highest probabilities}} ((.38 to .48 works best for my money)) however, the .886 does hit into primary and secondary resistance, so, maybe the candlesticks will help me out with a short trigger that includes low risk. No limit order on this trade. *** As I publish...
Either, Or, it seems that none will be particularly "classic" or completely valid, BUT, depending on how this develops - Close Enough ??? Bottom line - looking to sell the top trend line and then buy the bottom.
This interesting article has me looking for a dollar top: peterlbrandt.com A Butterfly pattern would bolster that bias as they also tend to appear at or near a trend change. (to bad they can't tell you how big a change) Comes on the heals of a 3 drive I bailed on to early. A well defined, low risk trade should it complete. A 2fer ??? Euro is showing the...
Low risk to jump in now and see if the highs hold. Given parabolic dollar strength this 3 drive seems less than "normal" probabilities for success. But worth the chance for me with well defined risk.
Guess will have to trade them both. EW suggests a 2nd/B wave up to the 4th wave - a common target for a-b-c corrections, BUT, if this is a 2nd or B wave of larger degree, THEN, EW rules allow for much larger retracement of 1 or A. That makes stops in need of help from the candlesticks and a c wave with a clear subdivision of 5 waves itself. My psychology likes low...
Ending Diagonals seem to be like fingerprints - No two are the same. But, this one has an almost decent 3-3-3-3-3 sub division and all that is missing is the 5th wave trend line over throw. Looking for an entry trigger either side of .8300 with full profit targets up to .8800 as Ending diagonals usually retrace all 5 waves. I don't see anything else, just now,...
To my observation the 1.272 fib ext of A to B is usually the best point of entry and slightly lower risk. As always, hopefully the candlesticks will help define an entry trigger and lower risk. Perhaps some RSI bullish divergence and a DMI continuing to decline will add confidence to this set up.
Catch a falling knife ??? Looking for a retracement into the opening gap, so, this may be a decent entry point without too much risk. Something around .8400 may entice my interest. This almost looks like an Ending Diagonal, but, my best wave count is incomplete and suggests one more low after a counter trend correction. (just in case there is a target 2)
The preferred EWave count, very overlapping/corrective, and within a channel, was showing what seemed to be headed for 11 swings and the completion of a triple flat ? BUT, a fly in the soup is this last proposed B wave showing a subdivision of 5 waves to my eye, therefore the alternate count would be a double having completed at 1.11896 and this is a wave ii....