It seems the sellers dominate at this moment, I'll keep selling Gold.
Today, buyers again failed to overcome the resistance level, or maybe they just want to accumulate their positions for a few more days. Anyway, tomorrow I'd expect a new test of support level 1780 or even 1774.
This Thursday I was expecting a buyer's activity, but probably he was waiting for better price on the market. I'm sticking to my plan and bought yesterday, but we barely made it to 1787, and of course it was disappointing. In channels B-B and C-C, the current local minimum can be interpreted as a Spring event. But first we have to go through 1783 again, which can...
We have a Character Change event now, so we will probably create a new trading range this month. We completed Phase A yesterday, so I am awaiting the development of the longest phase, Phase B. Let's wait for a while and search for POE on smaller TF.
For the next day, let's take a look at B-B channel, I think we are in the end of Phase B now. In a few hours I'd like to see Phase C, it could be a Spring event or just a new higher low. Last ten bars, we've seen the absorption of supply, so I hope to see the continuation of buying activity.
After the Phase C, I expect to see the next higher high, it could be 1.145 zone or even higher. Let's wait for a retest and buy it again.
By looking at 'Bar 1' on the chart, we see that the buyers are probably exhausted. The volume is large, and the result does not correspond to it. It could be a sign of buyer's weakness. Anyway, the buyers still can't pass the resistance level, so I'll try to sell with small SL. Good risk-reward ratio.
We are in a bearish rally supported by good volume, and I think we still have enough fuel for the next decline. The first TP is POC of the previous day, the second TP is ~4444. I'll sell when we'll break the trend line.
In general, it looks more like down slope redistribution model and if we won't go upper the local resistance zone, I will continue selling the Gold.
Just an update of previously published trading plan. I was waiting for an activity from sellers, but they show weakness in each bar. We see the higher lows and the ascending trading range. I'll buy when we break out the blue trendline. If we won't able to make a new local high, I'll stick my previous plan where the Spring sign marked as a SOW.
By viewing this tiny trading range as a distribution pattern, I am assuming we can test the POC of the previous TR at 47453. If this is a reAccumulation model, we will not go below 48350. Also note that this entire bullish rally was not supported by volume, so these are 'weak hands' rather than CO.
We have reached support level 1762 and there is no reaction from CO, why? It seems that the institutions for some reasons do not see this price zone as fair, they are probably looking for a more attractive price. Which one, I believe, we will find out soon.
We have had several attempts to rise above 59100, but so far all attempts have been unsuccessful. It looks like buyers are exhausted, or they want to buy at more attractive prices.
Yesterday Fed Chairman Powell ruined my gold forecast, but I will not give up and will continue my work -) I see a trading range A-A and believe it forms a distribution pattern. Tomorrow I expect to see Spring or M.SOW action @1760, but at first we have to break the blue trendline.
In this down slope trading range, it's easy to determine correctly in which model we are. For now, because of sign of weakness event, it looks like reDistribution. We have reached once again a resistance level, and I'm expecting for a new pullback o support zone.
Technically, we have left the trading range, but the current event can be considered not only as a sign of weakness, but also as a Spring signal. Probably we won't update the current low, so we will run a Test of Spring and rise the next day.
I am assuming the current price is in a accumulation trading range. We already have a sign of strength signal, which can also be interpreted as a UTAD signal. I have added several support and resistance zones that visualize the possible limits of the price movement. About the timing analysis, it's just a probability based on some statistic, I am not claiming that...
Of course, current formation also could be a Spring event in a phase C. But for now I'd like to trade it like a distribution pattern. Let's check it in 1 day.