blloyd

blloyd

A sizable rising wedge brought us 12.5% off the low. There has been remarkable price stability on lower volume in the last few sessions but the narrowing Bollinger band suggest that we are about to see a larger move. Trend line resistance, the rising wedge as well as falling volume all suggest that the move will be to the down side. It is reasonable to expect a...

blloyd Updated 

The following signals seem to support a continuation move to the upside similar to what we have recently seen in ETH: Cloud resistance was broken on the 12-hour chart following Tenkan/Kijun cross. Price found support on the 23.6% Fibonacci retrace from recent lows 10-day wedge broke decisively to the upside. Recently Bitcoin found a bottom on low...

blloyd

It looks like stop hunting gone awry. Regardless of the cause, the momentum is now reversed. I expect to see a small bounce before the gap is ultimately closed at $3300. From there it is also a good possibility that we will be headed for new lows. Either way, I do not expect to see BTCUSD head back to $5200 for several months. Comparisons to the last bear market...

blloyd

Looks like a great opportunity to take a short position on the NASDAQ with SQQQ. After a 12.5% run up from the 24th of December low, the Stochastic RSI is signaling that we will likely not make it past the Fibonacci retracement .382 level without retesting the middle of the Bollinger Band and likely a little lower. Stochastic RSI and MTF momentum strategy on...

blloyd

Look for the following signals: MTF momentum strategy indicates lower timeframes now aligning with the daily chart. Tenkan/Kijun cross looks to be imminent. Long term Down channel broke sideways some time ago indicating that RVNBTC found a bottom. This is all contingent on BTCUSD continuing its move toward $4800 which is looking ever more likely.

blloyd

The following signals seem to support a continuation move to the upside similar to what we have recently seen in ETH: MTF momentum strategy indicates lower timeframes now in alignment with the daily chart. Cloud resistance was broken on the 12-hour chart following Tenkan/Kijun cross. RSI finding support again on the uptrend line as the fast line crosses...

blloyd Updated 

The following indications seem to support a move to the upside similar to what we have recently seen in ETH: The MTF momentum strategy Cloud resistance was broken on the 12-hour chart following Tenkan/Kijun cross RSI finding support again on the uptrend line as the fast line crosses above the slow line Inversely the volume seems to be tapering. I do not...

blloyd

QQQ looks like it has put a bottom in and headed for a 50% Fibonacci retrace to $165.5. We should now find support at $154 prior to a run higher over the coming weeks.

blloyd

Following the Tenkan-Kijun Cross BTCUSD is now entering the cloud and setting up for an edge to edge cross of the cloud on the 12-hour chart. This move would also correspond with a 50% Fibonacci retracement of the recent crash to the low 3000s. It will likely find resistance at the 50% retracement level.

blloyd

The momentum is strong it seems and resistance around $3800 will likely not hold. I expect the price move above the 30 and 50 EMA on the 12 hour to carry us all the way to $4300. We also just had a bullish cross of the 7 EMA over the 30 EMA on the 12 hour.

blloyd Updated 

I expect BTCUSD to find resistance at 3800 and renew the decent to an eventual bottom below $3000. However throughout the bear market since the beginning of 2018 every time the price breaks above both the 30 and the 50 EMA on the 12 hour it makes a run for it. The momentum with which it has reached these price levels creates the distinct possibility that we will...

blloyd

At the moment we see a bullish flag forming on the hourly which will likely take BTCUSD and the whole crypto market up another leg. I would argue that if it finds resistance at $3630 and stays below that level for some consolidation while we see a rise once again in short positions, that scenario will likely result in higher highs over the coming days and will...

blloyd

Looks like a move to 500sat is within reach even if this is just a Bitcoin relief rally and not a bottom.

blloyd

As long as the price holds above 3350 on Bitstamp I think we will see a relief rally to $3650. There is a distinct possibility that we have put a bottom in for 2018 since the price came so close to the resistance and the $3000 psychological level. Many had predicted a bottom at $3200 as well. As I mentioned in the related post on the weekly chart linked...

blloyd

The weekly Stochastic RSI, 200-week moving average, high leveraged shorts, horizontal support, and weekly Bollinger Band all indicate that we are coming up on a tradable bottom (at least.) Having adjusted the Bollinger Band to identify secular periods of euphoria and desperation in the Cryptoshere, it is clear that we are in a rare time of desperation for Bitcoin...

blloyd

This bear run is getting long in the tooth. The small timeframe bull flag and the wider timeframe falling wedge are both signs that the bears are running out of steam. There is also an uptick in leveraged shorts. This is definitely something that helps to solidify a bottom, once the last folks to enter short positions near support cover or get liquidated on the...

blloyd

After yesterday's move down there are now at least three different lines of resistance above for BTCUSD. If The price rises and holds above $3350 there is still a chance for a relief rally from his level. this is increasingly less likely. The good news is that if BTC hits support around $3000 with this level of short interest, there will certainly be a large...

blloyd

Anyone who believes that BTC will go straight to a new low from resistance at $3500 should keep a close eye on the very high amount of short interest that is in play. At this point we will likely see $3800 or 12% gains before a renewed crash and making a new lows. Another possibility is an extended horizontal move as shorts cover gradually.