asdf098

asdf098

Conviction: 3/5 Still in downward channel / flag. better to wait for better entry - either on breakout of retest of support. Thesis recently retested & bounced off long-term channel support (1996/2000) Risk market risk = risk for everyone daily RSI-D moving down from recent overbought status

asdf098 Updated 

Conviction: 3/5 there may be near-term pullback for better entry General Thesis recently bounced off (low confidence) long-term channel breakout from medium-term resistance (2016) although a bit of indecision around resistance line Weekly RSI is high, but did not stop continued rise from 2009 lows Growth Margins high and growing growth is...

asdf098 Updated 

Conviction: 3/5 could drop further to MT support (Sep 2020) General Thesis two possible paths, one bouncing off ST support (Jul 2021) and the other bouncing off MT support (Sep 2020) 2nd scenario seems more likely (just a guess) recently did a bullish divergence in December 2021, so this could be it Potential Risks BTC pair looks attractive,...

asdf098 Updated 

Conviction: 3/5 ETH is retesting breakout line (resistance since 2017), sign of outperformance in medium/long-term. Weekly RSI is not at any special levels. Daily RSI approaching oversold levels, but nothing special either... could continue to languish along the trend line down. however, does not tell us direction of ETH itself, just relative performance.

asdf098 Updated 

Conviction: 4/5 could have another leg down to complete bullish RSI-W divergence General Thesis breakout and retest from downward resistance line (2014) Weekly RSI at oversold levels - ALTHOUGH could have another leg down to complete bullish divergence 200WMA as support? c-leg down at 100% of a leg down Growth Margins are high, although came...

asdf098

LT Conviction: 5/5 ST Conviction: 2/5 Breakout confirmed for long-term upward movement. Risky short-term. Explain: Lots of agriculture requires fossil fuel as inputs (fertilizer), and with structural underinvestment in fossil fuel extraction, prices should remain elevated for the next few years. This higher prices should trickle down into agriculture...

asdf098 Updated 

Conviction: 5/5 General Thesis bouncing off of medium-term channel support (since 2003) Weekly RSI at historical turning point Growth Margins high and growing growth is around 50th percentile Value P/FCF about 50th percentile P/S about 66th percentile Fundamentals low debt/asset ratio quick ratio above 5, can easily to deal with...

asdf098

Conviction: 3/5 For: RSI-W reached historical (short-term at least) bounce levels Seem to hold resistance level around 158 Typically EW retracement after 5 waves goes to 4th wave of previous wave, which is around where our support is. Quick ratio is pretty healthy (>2) RSI-M at level of last bounce (40-50)... although not usual low where major trends...

asdf098

Conviction: 3/5 26.8 looks like a better entry Main thesis So far (mid week) bounced off of dark blue channel (2020) support. RSI-W touched historical bounce area (however, if we wait for bullish divergence there could be another leg down) Leg down could coincide with .786 retracement (26.8) RSI-D showing bullish divergence Misc Info P/S level...

asdf098 Updated 

Conviction: 3/5 could drop to support (June 2018) General Thesis weekly RSI hovering around oversold levels, and showing potential double bottom Currently hovering around resistance/support line established in August 2019 Using Elliott Wave Theory this could be end of wave C, although better to wait for confirmation (1-2) Growth Gross margins...

asdf098

Conviction: 4/5 Entry is not idea, could have better entry point if price goes down to retest support. Main thesis Bounced off long-term (1991) channel bottom in December Bounced off 50M-MAas well RSI-M also bounced off historical lows, although not levels with highest certainty Confirmed breakthrough from downward resistance line last week Touching...

asdf098

Conviction: 4/5 Main thesis Retrace to .786 fib level from 2016 lows. This is an unconventional level but it coincided with medium-term resistance from 2009-2020. RSI-W touched historical bounce area (however, if we wait for bullish divergence there could be another leg down) RSI-D showing bullish divergence Touching lower bound of channel (2016) ...

asdf098

Conviction: 3/5 Risky over the next 6 months, perhaps triggered by fed raising rates in March? Commodities ( AMEX:GSG , AMEX:DBC ) showed real strength over the last two years. However, looking at weekly RSI it looks a bit exhausted (using data from bear market in the last 10 years) Typically with breakouts, the asset will retest former resistance. Also,...

asdf098

Conviction: 3/5 Overall downtrend, but Real Estate sector ( AMEX:XLRE ) looks like it could continue to outperform S&P 500 ( AMEX:SPY ) to reach the top of the channel. RSI-W, HOWEVER, is showing signs of exhaustion, potentially putting in a bearish divergence.

asdf098

Conviction: 4/5 Health Care sector looks quite risky. It is touching long-term resistance (2008). RSI-W is also putting in a seeming-start to bearish divergence. Major indicator (perhaps) if this breakdown from short-term support. Historically this could mean another few months of uptrend, but longer term this does not look good for the sector. However,...

asdf098

Conviction: 5/5 Health Care ( AMEX:XLV ) is looking very attractive relative to S&P 500 ( AMEX:SPY ), just bounced off of long-term (2022) support on a relative basis. RSI-M at oversold levels (obviously), while RSI-W seems to have put in a bullish divergence? Let's see which channel wins, but I think long-term one is stronger.

asdf098 Updated 

hovering but keeping at support (historical low) relative to BTC, a good buy point! could wait for it to go past resistance line from early 2021 to be more "sure"

asdf098 Updated 

Conviction: 2/5 General Thesis Daily RSI grazed 30 2 days ago bounced off short-term trendline since May 2021 will be carried up if crypto bounces,which is looking likely Growth Gross margins (90%) is high Revenue growth high (300%) Value P/FCF N/A P/S below historical average but expensive at 9 Fundamentals & Balance Sheet low...