Over the coming weeks I will continue to post some of my (maybe controversial) 2020 predictions. US Yield Curve (10y-3mo). Next few weeks: up to +60bps 1q/2q pullback to maybe 0bps Rest of 2020: rapid rise +200bps
AUDJPY, traditionally a marker for risk on/risk off has shown a complete DISCONNECT from equity indices (SPX = orange line) over the last 3-4 months. This rally in stocks is UNSUSTAINABLE. AUDJPY today potentially turning lower and could pressage a turn around for stocks over coming days/weeks.
Longer term view remains unchanged as it has for last year or so......ultimately headed lower to test/break $25 in final wave .5 green of C) red Medium term looking for Crude to take out $40 level coming few months. Short term, don't be fooled by the "bounce" from 49+ to 52+.
With the pop above 52.20 on 4h charts this morning Oil has fulfilled criteria for a simple flat a-b-c correction from recent 49+ lows and ready to head lower again shortly This aligns with other signs for risk off imminently JPY crosses have rebounded into decent Fib retracement zones SPX looks to be out of steam and more interestingly China A50 has met Fib...
I am sticking to my long held belief that the DAX made an important top 2 years ago based on a picturesque Elliott Wave count from 2009 post GFC lows. Over the last 2 years we have had a down leg (2018) wave A or W. Then an upleg (2019) wave B or X and now re-testing the ATH. My view remains that we are about to have another major corrective leg lower during 2020...
When VIX closes above 18 (and I say when not if) then the stock market will get well and truly hammered...... Don't shoot the messenger FOMO permabulls
Trading View thinks US 10yr yield went to ZERO this morning LOL
Nothing has changed in terms of the view on Oil Fundamentals are still poor despite recent Libya/Venezuela events. News today suggests OPEC could increase production again come June (if they aren't cheating already). Supply is going to increase whilst global econ slowdown will impinge demand plus inexorable move to EVs and solar/wind/alt energy etc to take its...
SPCE doing a Tesla dotcom ramp before it runs out of fumes and returns to earth $5bn valuation on $2m of revenues (no profits obviously) Shares from $7 to $27 in 9 weeks.... You do the maths.... INSANITY - seller at 27 small position stop 35 target back at 10 or lower
With the pop above 52.20 on 4h charts this morning Oil has fulfilled criteria for a simple flat a-b-c correction from recent 49+ lows and ready to head lower again shortly This aligns with other signs for risk off imminently JPY crosses have rebounded into decent Fib retracement zones SPX looks to be out of steam and more interestingly China A50 has met Fib...
With the pop above 52.20 on 4h charts this morning Oil has fulfilled criteria for a simple flat a-b-c correction from recent 49+ lows and ready to head lower again shortly This aligns with other signs for risk off imminently JPY crosses have rebounded into decent Fib retracement zones SPX looks to be out of steam and more interestingly China A50 has met Fib...
With the pop above 52.20 on 4h charts this morning Oil has fulfilled criteria for a simple flat a-b-c correction from recent 49+ lows and ready to head lower again shortly This aligns with other signs for risk off imminently JPY crosses have rebounded into decent Fib retracement zones SPX looks to be out of steam and more interestingly China A50 has met Fib...
Similar to recently formed idea on DOW futures Potential H+S top forming Resistance for right shoulder around 13350 IF pattern confirmed below neckline 12900 then TARGET is circa 12150
Resistance on front futures contract around 28850 area for right hand shoulder IF the pattern is confirmed (break of neckline around 28100-150) then target is circa 27,000
People often ask me why I like to trade the DAX (given that it is not the largest of stock market indices....I do also trade US markets mostly and occasionally HK/NKY). The answer is because the DAX is often a technically gorgeous market to trade in terms of clear patterns (EW and classical like H+S etc) and provides clear entry and exit (stop and t/p) levels. It...
TSLA is in a blow-off top This is a bubble and eventually will pop Sell here 630 on open (could go even higher to 680 so stop above 700) expecting a refill (at minimum) back test of open gap at 430.
For those that like the market topping action via the A-B-C Elliott Wave pattern (in big picture wave 4) then TODAY could have seen the TOP of the correction. Wave B (year long) could be complete after an (a - triangle b - c) pattern where wave c = fibo 0.618 extension of wave a. Also within wave c it looks like five complete waves with the last mini wave v...
This is potentially one of the most important charts regarding direction of markets overall in 2020. If the large triangle ((wave b) of 2 or B) plays out then 2020 will see USD/JPY head a lot lower towards 95 area. Trade possibility is selling here at 109.60 with a stop 300 points higher (112.60) and target 1400 points lower (95.60). Roughly 3.5/1 reward/risk....