UnclePennybagss

UnclePennybagss

AMEX:SPY - gapping down from a resilient Friday session on lower vol but QQQs showing relative weakness in the morning as economic data including a hot nonfarm payrolls is signaling more potential for future rate hikes . SPY is still in the upward channel for the march 13 lows. 409 is the key level where it needs to hold to see future upside today. Not seeing an...

UnclePennybagss Updated 

SPY - pointing lower this morning. Some economic news to be released including nonfarm payrolls, expt 200K. Failure to close above 408 on the 15 min early on would give confidence that we move lower today. For further confirmation of a trend day, watch for: $ADD pinned near +\-2000 $VOLD ratio over +/- 3 $TICK cumulating past 0 wicking to +/-900 $XLC - had...

UnclePennybagss

SPY -finally put in a red day after breaking through the 407 pivot and then finding support there at EOD. Relatively flat this morning as we await important economic data that will likely dedicate whether the Fed hikes in May. The most important value is at 9:45 S&P Global Services PMI Final for Mar: Prior 53.8. Watch for the reaction at this time for clues on...

UnclePennybagss

SPY - the grind higher continues as SPY approaches the all-important Jan 30 pivot of 418. Over the last week SPY has either held the PM support or PD high. Looking for either of those levels to hold to potentially expect higher prices later on as we haven't needed the $ADD pinned near +\-2000 and $VOLD ratio over +/- 3 and $TICK cumulating past 0 wicking to +/-900...

UnclePennybagss

SPY - finished strong last week with a wide body bar holding most of the gains and ending over the key resistance levels. Remember, for a trend day we'll need to see the $ADD pinned near +\-2000 and $VOLD ratio over +/- 3 and $TICK cumulating past 0 wicking to +/-900. Oil stocks - higher as a group with crude trading up more than 6% premarket the move following...

UnclePennybagss

SPY -creeping up towards the 407.50 pivot has investors await more economic data from PCE this morning. We will see how the market reacts to the values at 8:30 as consumer spending accounts for 2 thirds of the US economy and signs of cooling inflation could push the market higher. However, investors might be pricing in this data. Either way, which even direction...

UnclePennybagss

SPY - had a very tight range day but without too much volatility allowed for moves in names like BABA and VKTX. Gapping up this morning back into key resistance areas, SPY will have trouble making it through these levels without any catalysts in the near future, however, as volatility drops in the banking sector it seems fears of a widespread economic collapse...

UnclePennybagss

SPY - unable to hold the reversal from yesterday for a fairly range bound day, gapping down to PD lows but also PPD support at 395.50. Note that SPY once again rejected the important 399 level right off the open, this is a sign to me that the market needs to head lower. Home price numbers have been the stickiest form of inflation so when that data is released at...

UnclePennybagss

SPY - showing continued strength this morning after and impressive rally on a few steady buy programs on Friday. Next resistance is the very key 200 EMA at 399, 400, and pivot high of 402.50. Remember, for a trend day we'll need to see the $ADD pinned near +\-2000 and $VOLD ratio over +/- 3 and $TICK cumulating past 0 wicking to +/-900. Banks: News of a...

UnclePennybagss

SPY - gapping down for some follow through to end yesterdays completed reversal. I was expecting a bounce back to around 395 area, then move lower, but once we got to 395, held, and the $TICK was holding +900, $ADD line was pinned at 1800, I knew we weren't done with the rally. Anyways that was certainly a wild close. Perhaps the 395 area will act as some...

UnclePennybagss

SPY - gapping up slightly to relieve some short pressure from yesterday after Yellen and Powell tanked the market. Their comments mentioned they're not expecting rate cuts this year and discussed tighter credit conditions form businesses and households. SPY rejected the key levels I mentioned including the PD high, 200 EMA at 399, and 400 key level. Then moved all...

UnclePennybagss

SPY - flat looking into today's rate decision with consensus expecting a 25 bps hike, however still some other forecasters expecting a pause of 0 bps. This means that volatility will be incredible if there is a surprise pause but the FED has not made a rate decision against consensus in the last 12 months. There are a lot of key resistance levels over SPY...

UnclePennybagss

SPY - gapping up into the top of the multi-day wedge top to 394.00 on news that the FED is CONSIDERING the option to backstop all distressed US bank deposits. This is effectively a bailout and another form of QE to increase liquidity. This also means that the fed's year end terminal rate could be more like 4.75 rather that 5.25, which bods well especially for...

UnclePennybagss

SPY - reversed early downside action to start the week flat at the moment. Traders are dividend on what to make of the news that central banks around the world back-stopping failing banks and bolstering the flow of cash around the world to prevent a fast-moving loss of confidence in the financial system's stability. Since the moves seem so divided, no bias today...

UnclePennybagss Updated 

Gold stocks were showing extreme relative strength last week with intensive bearish sentiment in banks, seeing RSIs between 70-80 and RVOL above 2. ATM we need to see some pull back to get a favourable RR setup. With the bailout news over the weekend I suspect we will certainly get a chance for a dip into support like we've see most days last week. GOLD is still a...

UnclePennybagss

SPY - had an impressive rally yesterday lead by the tech sector. We want to watch for SPY to retest and hold the breakout level between 388 and 390, getting close in the PM already. Oil names might be gearing up for a bounce trade. Look for the 66.50 in WTI level to hold. If it does, looking for names that held most of the gains after PD rally like $ET....

UnclePennybagss

SPY - had another late session short covering rally to end the day. However, unlike Monday, Shorts were unable to push below 383.50 the whole day. This lead to a rally over 387 and then another retest rally to end the day. IN contrast to PD, we tested the 387 level in PM and held again. Although we are in the middle of the range between 393.50 and 380, if support...

UnclePennybagss

SPY - had a late session short covering rally to end the day. Shorts were in control coming up this morning as investors remained cautious about the banking crisis and awaited more economic data for guidance on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. PPI spike at 8:30 AM which was quickly reclaimed to the PM lows past the 387 key level. Now that we are below the...