TraderXR

TraderXR

Last week’s ECB rate hike of 0.75% sent the euro on a strong upward trend but the Euro came crashing down as the US dollar has rebounded after the August inflation report was hotter than expected. Headline CPI dropped to 8.3% YoY, down from 8.5%, courtesy of lower gasoline prices. Inflation was still higher than the market expectation of 8.0%. The latest...

TraderXR

1. Should there be a "true" recession, it will take the pressure off the Fed when it comes to raising interest rates. What I mean by a "true" recession, it is not just consecutive quarters of negative growth but this time round, we should pay more attention to the labour market. If the demand for labour is still high, labour market is still tight, then it is...

TraderXR

Despite the numerous stimulus by the Chinese government, HSI's previous rally seemed to be short lived. This is in fact, align with my expectations. Reason because: 1. Continuous lock-downs/fears of lockdowns. No one will know when will the city go into lockdown, putting all production etc on hold. 2. Investors' confidence. Despite the credit stimulus, it seems...

TraderXR

Fuelled by near-zero interest rates, already-elevated prices in one of the world's hottest housing markets have surged over 50% since the pandemic began. Despite easing slightly in July to 7.6% from a near 40-year high of 8.1% in June, BoC Governor Tiff Macklem said it would "remain too high for some time," implying the central bank, which has already raised rates...

TraderXR

1. On the European commodities market front, there seems to be sort of a "bailout" fund of 65 billion Euros to try provide relief. 2. Because of point 1, we should continue to pay attention to TTF prices, given that the Gazpom might not be restarted. 3. In my opinion, Germany is basically using more money to provide reliefs, which will add on to inflationary...

TraderXR

The August jobs report was a positive one with continued employment gains but also healthy increase in labour force. Non-farm payrolls rose by 315,000. Employment rose by a very strong 442,000. But there was also an unexpected 786,000 surge in the labor force which helped raise the unemployment rate up from 3.5% to 3.7%. Average hourly earnings for all workers...

TraderXR

Following my post on HSI, my focus is also on USDCNH pair. My take is that it is in an upward channel and given the differing monetary policies by the Fed and PBoC, my take is that USD will continue to strengthen. However, we should pay more attention to the Jackson Hole symposium for more insights on the Fed's future rate policies as well as the US labour market...

TraderXR

PBoC cut its 1 year and 5 year LPR again in an attempt to spur its credit markets. As expected we saw a huge jump in HSI this morning. However, I think this rally might not be long lasting because of investors' sentiments. Based on the technicals, it seems to be in a downward channel as well. My take is that unless it breaks out 19860, it will probably reverse back down.

TraderXR

Based on Elliot Waves, I am expecting a retracement. On the macro front, ECB's Schnabel speech and BoE's Bailey speech will likely have an impact on Sterling which we should continue to monitor. Given the high inflation in the UK, it is likely (highly likely) that BoE's speech will be about curbing the inflation through aggressive monetary policy. Therefore, we...

TraderXR

Currently my set up for AUDUSD, waiting for the currency pair to cross 0.69265 and the Chinese industrial profits data will give some insights to the direction of the currency. We should be expecting a positive figure this morning which bodes well for the AUD. In terms of technicals, it doesn't state a reversal yet to cite an uptrend. However, I will still be...

TraderXR

The RBA commitment to normalising inflation and pointing to a 25 or 50 basis point hike next month. The somewhat dovish tone had little impact on the AUD. Based on the technicals, if there is a clear downward break out, we can short the AUD. Meanwhile, we can keep a look out of related commodities currencies such as CAD which will be announcing its CPI data.

TraderXR

Based on the technicals, we can expect a retracement. Based on the macro environment, should the U.S remove the tariffs on China imports, it will be likely that there will be a breakout.

TraderXR

Given the hawkishness of the ECB and their announcement of CPI later, there is a high chance of the higher than expected CPI in which, puts further pressure on the ECB on rate hikes. Therefore I am long EUR.

TraderXR

Two possible moves for USDCNH. Given the current covid situation in China, and the hawkiness of the Fed, it is likely for the ccy pair to move upwards

TraderXR

If NFPs follows ADP, the U.S. dollar could fall quickly and aggressively as investors start to consider a further delay to taper.

TraderXR

The Jackson Hole Symposium. Over the past few months, the FEDs hinted about the need to reduce asset purchases. Central banks in Canada, the U.K. and New Zealand have already set the stage for tapering, so it would be natural for the Fed to follow suit. Therefore this event will probably highlight any plans for that.

TraderXR

With oil futures trading higher, definitely will hope for better figures this time round. Will keep a close eye on this - if the price closes above the strong ceiling

TraderXR

Pending the crude oil inventories figures. Based on the current outlook, I am expecting it better figures and more demand for oil, therefore the demand for dollar to increase