Im not necessarily predicting a retracement but I am hoping for one. The trend seems pretty overextended but remember that this is a move based on very strong fundamental reasons.
This recent up move in Gold may just represent intra-trend mean reversion rather than a move up again. Just a reasonable risk-reward gamble really. There's an inverse H&S pattern and if this fails, the stops may propel the price down.
The COT report this week shows massive UJ Long Positions. However price action shows an inability to make any meaningful new highs and this bearish movement was compounded by poor US fundamental news. I think the combination of these factors could propel USDJPY downwards in the near term.
Going long the Euro Index as a trend continuation trade. Looking for a bounce of yellow line (50 day MA) - has acted as support before. Basket contains: EURUSD 16.27% EURJPY 13.10% EURGBP 13.92% EURCHF 16.38% EURCAD 13.63% EURAUD 13.65% EURNZD 13.05%
Bear flag, retest of prior low made in 2016. Perfect economic data and impending rate rises.
Support at 113.5 Deep retracement in strong trend. Also this area is a retest of a trend line previously broken - the one passing through 113.4.
After a nice bounce from the bottom of this channel, there has been a retracement today. This should be seen as an opportunity to go Long. There are strong fundamental reasons that make me believe that GBP is undervalued. If anyone is wondering how to actually this trade: Just BUY the same GBP amount (X) of all the GBP pairs (GBPAUD, GBPNZD, GBPUSD, GBPJPY,...
111.55 is where the 50-day MA is; it is currently acting as good support. 113.2x is a reasonable target near to the top of a channel that is forming
This trade is more technical than fundamental. There is a clear bear flag pattern on the weekly chart of the Yen against all pairs. Today was a break of the flag structure. The stock market is booming and the EU, UK and US are looking to normalise rates. Risk on for now.
I think people will move money from com dolls into safe haven currencies. Also I think oil will continue to fall to some extent.
Despite Mark Carney's best efforts to devalue the pound each time he opens his mouth, I think the outlook for the Pound is becoming more positive. There are two factors underpinning this: 1. The Bank of England has a dual mandate - to stabilise prices (keep inflation under control) and promote strong growth and employment. Inflation is at 2.9% while Unemployment...
I think the Fed's action, totally ignoring poor economic data, indicates their desperation to normalise monetary policy. This is mainly to ensure they have room for monetary policy stimulus in the future. There is a channel which has been broken and unsuccessfully retested on the 4H chart. There is also good support from the 21-day and 50-day moving averages...
Is CHF even a safe-haven currency anymore? Who knows. I think people are going to sell GBP and buy CHF (and probably JPY) in the period leading up to the election.
Divergence, looking for retest of high and beyond.
Important prior high, channel forming, pullback on strong trend - lots of evidence to suggest an up move soon. I would get in a bit later though - wait for it to move down some more and then you get a better risk/reward. I would buy Limit at 1240, stop at 1230, initial target at 1260, then 1290 and 1320 if you're feeling lucky.
I think we're in a AUDUSD downtrend. The 21 DMA seems to be resistance.