TheLazyBrother

TheLazyBrother

Correction was shallow, but it seems over, market breaking down. Play it fron the short side.

TheLazyBrother Updated 

Today's sell off has a bear market stamp all over it. The dilemma is: do we need another rally to complete the correction of five wave down impulse?. Lately, NDX acquired a habit of making double tops, so be on look out. The problem is also that the corrrection is fairly shallow, not even reaching 0.382 retracement. I would still be inclined to wait for the c...

TheLazyBrother

ZB made an impulsive move higher, should continue. Note that it is deeply oversold on higher timeframes.

TheLazyBrother

Truncation can never be the first choice when analysing the market, but has to be taken into account as a possibility. Market, NDX especially, has been week lately, and negatives are accumulating: rates and commodities are going up, inflation is going up too, and war is raging... Otherwise, it should be wave 1 of 5 I suppose.

TheLazyBrother

XLK could have completed the impulse to the downside, with some possibility left for one more poke . At least that is what the divergence in momentum is suggesting. Two gaps, conveniently located at fibonacci levels shouls serve as resistance.

TheLazyBrother

ZF corrected into the 0.62 retracement so it might be worth a try.

TheLazyBrother

It is probably not there yet, but it should be close, so be on look out.

TheLazyBrother

Similar pattern (seee previous post) can be found in five year note, which would suggest that FED tightening is fully priced and that market is starting to anticipate the recession, and bear market in stocks.

TheLazyBrother

There is a fairly clear impulse wave to the upside in the two year. It should find support at 105,20-105,23 level.

TheLazyBrother

In my book, and for what it's worth, this is a clear five wave impulse to the downside. No overlap, textbook alternation between waves 2 and 4, following a well defined trendline. Resistance should be at 156-158 area. It is certainly worth paying attention to further developments in XLK, as there will be no advance in major indicies without the tech sector.

TheLazyBrother

NDX seems to be forming a double top pattern right before significant selloffs, sucking in longs. If true, prices should be heading below 13k.

TheLazyBrother

The a-b-c structure could be interpreted as a flat correction, implying a bear market carrying prices below 120 level.

TheLazyBrother

The pair is showing three large a-b-c structures, each one looking like the echo of the previous one. 188-130 level has acted as solid support for 27 years now, but subsequent rallies got rejected each time at a lower level.

TheLazyBrother

Bonds are oversold on every trend level, monthly, weekly and daily. Whenever, indicators like RSI reached these levels, bonds reversed to the upside. Inverted yield curve suggests that FED is unlikely to become more hawkish then it already is. Look closely to 150 level, as a decisive break could signal a significant change in trend.

TheLazyBrother

It does not happen that often for RSI on 10Y rates to cross the 65 mark. And every time it happened in last 40 years, it meant the almost exact peak. Purple SMA also acted as solid resistance. Unless we have entered a whole new era, which doubtful considering that deleveraging never occurred (on the contrary!), bonds should be a tremendous buy right here and now.

TheLazyBrother

For longer term context, please se my attached analysis. Second and finalABC to the downside corrected into the previous wave 4 and a just a touch from 0.500 retracement, wave A being equal to C. The washout should be over, and we should be targeting ATH in February. Needless to say, we would need a strong close today, and a nice fat green candle. Break of 16300...

TheLazyBrother

Initial thrusts out of a correction were followed by deep retracements, each time. But the moment to push higher is NOW, or the whole idea should be reconsidered.

TheLazyBrother

It seems that wave 2 has completed, and that wave 3 is starting.