RyanVarghese

RyanVarghese

Just wait for the pullback.. we could see a good a swift 200 / 250 pips move to the upside

RyanVarghese

We saw that Trump and Xi in Ping have agreed on a truce with regards to Trade war. I think based on this, we are going to see a massive DXY liquidation after a good pump. This is just a hypothesis as we could see some serious rally starting in equities with gold being back at levels missed for those who didn't long.. my desired levels would be 1350/60.. ultimate...

RyanVarghese

Details are in the chart. Generally, for global growth to pick up, we need a subdued oil price and like it or not, POTUS wants a lower oil price. We are heading into a G-20 meeting this weekend and Trump is definitely gonna highlight his attention toward oil price as well along with the trade tension (tariff issue) that we are seeing. Rest all details are in...

RyanVarghese

OIl has spiked too fast and too high from where it was a week or two ago on geopolitical tensions. Now, we have G-20 and Opec meet next week.. Trumps wants a lower oil price which is possible and Opec ain't gonna cut more supply..plus if is nothing more than expected is said at next Opec meet... we could see buy the rumor sell the fact trade on WTI.. that will...

RyanVarghese

I did explain in detail in my last analysis about why I am bearish DXY and it has performed well. But those who didn't Short the USD can wait for a decent pullback or textbook short for a retest of a Trendline that coincides with 200 MA.. a Meaningful correction to the downside is still in play for a trend that was nearly for 15-18 months.. Buy the Dips in...

RyanVarghese Updated 

After getting stopped out from my previous pain trade for 2019 which still is Short, my view hasn't changed. Have a sell open from 1345 but targets could have been overstretched to some peoples eye. but hey, More than two people make a market, right? So, I see gold getting crushed from mid of 2019 until the next crisis comes (whenever it may ). King Dollar will...

RyanVarghese Updated 

This Chart was prepared at the start of 2019 when I started trading futures on Yes bank and saw a particular pattern which played that no matter what, the stock respects the MAJOR S/D levels. Apart from that, fundamentally, the company`s quarterly results were the cause for the major plummet from mid 200 to the current levels and prior to that the push was...

RyanVarghese

What an Interesting week it was in the currency market. Some violent whipsaws and washout occurred in the major pairs. Let's have a top down and bottom up approach to why I think DXY is a sell for a couple of weeks or months before we see a move up. I can be completely wrong as well but I am willing to take this chance as I believe, we gonna see a swift move to...

RyanVarghese

On a monthly timeframe, Yen is bid from Jun to August which means third quarter prepositioning could take place from June. From a fundamental perspective, US 10 Y yields are plunging and US-China trade war is causing a ruckus in the global market pushing equities down. Hence, during uncertain circumstances, NIRP (Negative Interest Rate Policies) currencies are...

RyanVarghese

Fundamentally, The US is delivering the strongest fundamentals when compared with its counterparts across the world. Plus the recent data have been little under expectation but that won't deteriorate/dissipate the hope for the investors, I think. Also, this will keep the dollar bid, especially USDJPY . Now thinking logically, the yields will increase when the bond...

RyanVarghese

Price action on Larsen and Toubro is extremely choppy for the last couple of months..the price at 1400 odd levels have been a massive resistance so ar in 2019. The stock is fundamentally good but it will be beaten and sucked by the volatility that could prop in the coming weeks... This company rewards its shareholders genuinely and so far, it seems that stock...

RyanVarghese

As anticipated, GBP is the most resilient currency of 2019 against USD. we are seeing a solid strength built up with respect to price action. Apart from that, think logically, everyone is tired of Brexit and needs some early verdict on the final result to move on for the next few years. However, when something takes this long, then it simply means, there is...

RyanVarghese Updated 

Acroding to CFTC, we have alargest net short positions on EURO since December 2016.. and the market is heavy short. Therefore, I would like to take the other side of the market as this could give a vicious squeeze to the bears. History repeats always and if anyone does not remember is likely to witness the perils of it. Back in 2018, according to CFTC April...

RyanVarghese Updated 

From the technical perspective, oil is at the cusp of respecting the major level which also acts a resistance along with the golden ratio. However, on a longer time frame, we could also see a big short coming. Time to build structural short positions in Oil. Also, its a pain trade because April is seasonally Bullish for Oil. Hence, if we see this level is...

RyanVarghese

USDMXN is very interesting at the moment. We are seeing the price coming to the lower range of the weekly symmetrical triangle. Along with that, fundamentally and seasonally, the US Dollar gets its bid from the third week of April until the end of May and bond yields show the first sign of it. The "So-called Inverted yield" fears have seen to be dissipated for...

RyanVarghese

NFP could be the catalyst.. and technicals showing we are accumulating at/near the zone.. Also, note that JXY has a seasonal trend to be bullish in April . RR is 3:1 +

RyanVarghese

Price action guiding the strategy.. fake rallies are just an another opportunity for those who have missed shorting this pair.

RyanVarghese Updated 

According to Price action blended with fundamentals and chart pattern, the Euro still has a further leg down. The 61.8 retracement comes at 1.11800 (DEC1 2016 LOWS TO 2018 HIGH) and the level found immediate resistance at 1.1450 (50%) fib of the same zone. Furthermore, Eurozone si beginning to collapse. Now no amount of capital infusion could save it....