Fundamentals - Hun core inflation above MNB target -> rate increase probably in March - wage growth steadily above 10% - GDP growth above expectation, 5% yoy The eco picture resembles scenario the Czech case from 2017 where the central bank started raising rates (wage pressure, inflation, housing prices) and the korona strengthened 6-7%. Technical - EURHUF...
Technicals - 61.8 Fib level T/P zone for EURSEK buyers Trade plan - Enter short, S/L relatively tight - 10.35 breakout level is the target - Scale out on H4 around 10.40 and see if it goes further south
Fundamentals: - eco data clearly on the soft side (fear of technical recession becoming reality) - low int. rate environment - hurting EU financial sector - wage growth pressing company margins Technical: - weekly 20 & 200 MA confluence was a strong resistance -> reason to close long positions - broad channel pointing lower -> price below 10.000 level is on the table
Fundamentals: -key eco indicators further deteriorating (Ger factory orders, PMI, etc) -no brexit deal -> EU and GB both will suffer Technicals: - daily 200MA reached - fake out candle -> indication of bulls getting tired Trade plan - took a short from 1.1390 based on H4 - target 61.8 Fib retracement (1.1290) - if risk sentiment improves, stocks move...
Technically a bullish yield scenario is building up. The implications are interesting for Stocks and FX both. - Selling US bonds -> weakening effect on USD - Yields climbing up -> risk-on sentiment, equities up - Yields climbing up -> markets reevaluate Fed message and start to reprice rate hike -> USD supportive Contradictory messages are visible from the bond...
Fundamentally: - Negative effect of the shutdown on forward looking and sentiment indicators - Fed cutting back bond selling Technicals: - weekly 61.8 was a clear chance to enrter short - tp for short positions around 94 points (200 DMA+38.2Fib) Trade plan: - keep $ short positions, if stopped out by volatility check if reopening makes sense
-Clear short entry @ H4 200ema + 20ema -Expect to see short take profits at 61.8 Fib level -60% of retail traders are long NZDUSD -> further slide south Trade plan: - Did not take the short side, not chasing it, instead: - Wait if 61.8 Fib will be tested - Wait to see bullish candlestick pattern -> go long (1:3 RR)
Key factors: - DXY broke out and has the potential to touch the daily 61.8% Fib level - Retail traders heavily short against USD -> further $ appreciation - Key risk event: ECB press conference (24-Jan) -> in case ECB sends dovish signal, $ moves higher Trade setup: - if USD appreciates, wait until daily 61.8 level + bearish candlestick -> go short - If no...
Fundamentally I'm NOK mainly because of PPP and Effective exchange rate undervaluation of the NOK. While in the meantime Norges bank will raise rates twice in 2019. Technically : pretty (maybe too pretty?) H&S Action: -wait for daily bearish candlestick form, go short -target: lower bound of the channel, 200 DMA confluence
Not trading this break-out setup. Levels to watch: -resistance: 61.8 daily Fib -support: daily trendline and 200 dma
In spite of all the major banks forecasting higher EURUSD rate for 2019, I believe there is more risk in the eurozone than in US. Namely: - Eurozone industrial production falling - Germany close to technical recession - Brexit, EU parliamentary vote - Mario Draghi admitting eurozone growth slowing down -> rate hike far away. Technicals: -Weekly 61.8 support -...
Investors lose on both equity and bond markets as rates are rising and the economy globally is cooling down. Gold has been forgotten for years, good chance it will become a darling in 2019. My price target for XAUUSD: $1360
After key risk-event (Norges Bank rate decision) technicals can take over the field at USDNOK cross. NOK is among most undervalued ccys based on trade-weighted fair value models + it seems crude oil is stabilising. From the USD side eco data came in weaker, that might push Fed to take a softer stance on future rate hikes.
Against the short position: - one big drag is Brent crude falling, probably further Pro: -NOK seasonality, year starts with NOK inflows usually -Inflation above market expectations, and current Norges Bank interest rate ->tighter monetary conditions expected
Pure speculative position on the China-US trade talks. Trump had reached agreement with all "enemies" so far (NAFTA, North-Korea) his negotiation tactics include initial hard-talk and then agreeing. US equity market range is 8%, a current trade will be a quick die or win position.
AUD is showing strenght under various risk sentiments, a possible step forward in China-US trade agreement is getting priced in.
USD was supported by safe haven flows, and interest rate differential trades. TEchnically the USD rally reached a resistance, I expect some $ profit taking to appear, thus I look for USD short positions. Currently trading the USDNOK.
Technically: weekly 100&200 EMA + 38.2% Fib level meet at 65 dollar price support zone. Fundamentally OPEC members set a December meeting to adjust supply, global economic slowdown fears might be exaggerated. -> short term long is my view to 70$ Forex: USDCAD, USDNOK, USDRUB to watch