QuantitativeExhaustion

QuantitativeExhaustion

JCP is desperate. The company needs to liquidate and downsize. If the company acts quickly and closes stores, this could help the few bulls still here and squeeze the shorts out of there money. As of Sept. 12 short interest was 32%. Third Quarter Earnings, Tuesday Morning 9:00 AM Nov. 19 Chart Pattern - Falling Wedge or Descending Triangle Pattern The...

QuantitativeExhaustion

Apple have been in talks to secure a deal with China Mobile for several years. China Mobile is the largest mobile carrier in the world with 200 million+ 3G users. servaasschrama.com China Mobile and Apple could not ink a deal until Apple offered an iPhone under $100, and Apple had it's supply chain and production ready to take on the new demand. Well with...

QuantitativeExhaustion

What Is Historical Volatility ? Volatility can be split in two - historical volatility (HV) and implied volatility (IV). I myself place more emphasis on implied volatility. Implied volatility is derived from option prices and provides clues about the current sentiment of option investors. Compared to implied volatility, historical volatility, similar to most...

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Here I am putting together the start of a road map of significant events to take place over the next 6 months, and how the US dollar might react to these events. Our next Federal Reserve meeting has many implications. Traders/Investors are hearing about the possible September taper, or a more hawkish tone from the Federal Reserve. I am one of those that...

QuantitativeExhaustion

This chart uses a similar methodology employed by Carolyn Boroden also known as the Fibonacci Queen. What I did was find symmetry in previous trend lines to measure out 3 Point Fibonacci Extensions. I found we had similar trends that I marked in both black and blue lines. As you can see with the new tool by Trading View, we can now measure length, bars and time...

QuantitativeExhaustion

No one, or I should say most traders don't believe this rally. I too am one of those skeptics. AB-CD pattern I have drawn has little room for error here. If we surpass and close above 169.05, this pattern is no longer valid. I have been waiting to short this quick market turn. Today or Monday may present an area I feel comfortable buying puts for July. I like...

QuantitativeExhaustion

Much of the first half gains in U.S. markets were contributed to historical low interest rates. Now that the Federal Reserve is stating they are trimming back QE 3, yields have reversed quickly. A matter of fact there has only been a few times over the past 20 years we have seen a faster percent increase in U.S. Treasuries. With higher yields we squash what we...

QuantitativeExhaustion

We have had several opportunities this past few months to make significant plays using what I call a hidden option arbitrage strategy. Here is a simple strategy I employ when trading options. I often scan the Volatility Indexes to find rock bottom prices. When the index gives you low readings on a historical chart scale you can purchase options at a discount. ...

QuantitativeExhaustion

Here is a look at the SPY/EURUSD spread chart. What we can tell from this chart, US markets drop is more significant when compared to EURUSD. You can also find hidden supports/resistances on spreads that you might not see with the underlying position such as SPY or EURUSD. From the spread chart we still have a open gap with significant support. It's possible we...

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Since the crash of 2008 emerging markets have seen enormous amounts of capital inflows. As you can see with volume on this chart money has poored into a very popular Emerging Market ETF, EEM. If you look closely, after significant corrections emerging markets are leading US markets. So look for EEM to push out of this recent correction at a higher rate of...

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Here is a historical chart of the gold/silver ratio. From my research we are in a lagging bullish condition. If you take a look at the ratio, we can see silver often runs or drops before gold. With that knowledge we can get ahead of the curve when we see a fast rising gold/silver ratio. We also can see in this chart we have lagging conditions. It looks as if...

QuantitativeExhaustion

Trading Techniques with the Three-Line Break Chart Some traders prefer waiting for an extra confirmation of a trend reversal. Depending on your risk, you can follow rules below to confirm a bullish trend or bearish trend. The idea of waiting for extra confirmation would involve a tradeoff between risk and reward. The longer a trader waits for a confirmation of a...

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You can best root out correlations with the CC tool on your list of indicators. Here is a look at an inverse relationship with the Peso and SPY. Peso has a broadening top pattern and the SPY is back in its bullish channel. If the Peso does not improve we could see the SPY move much higher. Broadening Top Pattern thepatternsite.com

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Double top at clone resistance and 5th wave cycle failure. Clone reference is the 2009 low to a peak before the flash crash late April 2010. Fibonacci taken from wave 2 primary to primary 3 of wave 3 cycle EW count. After we reach the pinnacle of wave 3 primary - 5th cycle - presumable double top ; Wave 4 A-B EW Cycle correction (or completion A-B-C of wave 4...

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Went through the SPY chart looking for clues. Not too many people have a solid founding on EW counts with some sort of rule breaks. I went through with a Scalpel on that wave 1, proving it is possible to count those waves in a much smaller time frame. Wave 1 is also shorter in length than wave 3. So we did not break the 3 can not be the shortest in length rule....

QuantitativeExhaustion

Update from previous 5 min SPY chart What to look for next week. If SPY gaps up or moves higher we are in wave 4 minute corrective and C of 4 large EW (can see if you scroll out, or hit the make it mine and scale out the time frame). If you think this theory is correct don't take stabs at wave 4's-wave 5 minute corrections. I would suggest for you to wait for a...

QuantitativeExhaustion

Looking at Indicator study here. I noticed a pattern that @nmike passed along to us all, the Fisher Cat. That Cat works well to find peaks and bottoms or significant trend reversals. On this chart I also noticed a hat pattern followed by a cat, which suggest a trend reversal was about to take place. Not only did we have the pattern to work with, we also had...

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When unsure where the market is headed it's always a good idea to look at the historical chart for clues. I went through the charts and looked for support/resistance, both horizontal - ascending/descending with significant confluence. During the late stages of the tech bubble, bulls had a tough time passing the ascending resistance (shown in purple). I extended...