Keep and eye on your weekly chart. If Santa can't find his rally cap then the neck line cometh
This was the week of laid eggs. OPEC showed it no longer has any control. The oil production number was leaked earl in the day on Friday and basically said they will not curb production. With the current glut of oil, further production spells further trouble for oil. How far can she go? We think oil could flirt with the $30 area. At this point all pullbacks...
Uncle Draghi laid an egg Thursday and sent the Euro ripping. We were hoping for a uniformed move but after some leaks before the ECB announcement the Euro had it's largest one day move in a bazillion years. There was no time to position your self so it was tough to get on a long trade. If you miss a break (like we did) the next best thing is to drop down to a...
What a difference a day makes. Just when we were looking for a short (which we got) the very next the market recovered the previous days losses an then some. Was it news driven (Draghi or NFP) or is this a sign of major consolidation before a break out in the first part of January? Time will tell. However, you will need to be tactical for now...positions are...
The Nasdaq is breaking new high and the Russell and is not even close to new highs. We posted this weekly chart a week ago...is this a clue?
Tech is defying gravity. The Nasdaq broke new highs today while the Russell and S&P lag. The question begs...will the the other indexes catch up or drag the Nasdaq down? No shorting for us in these areas. We will see if we can get a break and close below the up channel (or green line around 4675)
Oil is still selling off in-front the OPEC meeting this Friday. We are flat and staying away until after the meeting. At this point we think it tests the August lows, but if doesn't and OPEC has a bullish tone then we will see a massive spike. WARNING: DO NOT TRY TO GUESS THE DIRECTION BEFORE THE MEETING. That's gambling at best. For us to get long we will...
It's a race to the bottom on the EURO. Draghi is pretty for his spin talk...we are on the side lines until Uncle Draghi is done speaking. He likes surprises and since we don't we will wait. If you are in a Euro trade lock in gains and place stops.
One target and stopped for us on the Notes. Looks like we were early on ti trade even though we believe lower note price are in the cards. We will keep our eye it...closely
What does this book tell us? Just saying! Time will tell.
The weekly chart on the Bonds is developing a signal. No matter what direction the wedge breaks we expect a 6-10 week move. Keep this chart front and center on computer.
Target #1 is in the books but there was a nasty reversal and it looks like the rest of our trade is in jeopardy. We will honor the stops.
A quick trade entry on the Euro resulted in a quick loss. The Euro broke above our entry last week and quickly reversed for a stop out. On reversal trades we always trade with tight stops so this was a small paper cut. At this point we will wait for the knife to stick in the ground before considering any long position. WE WILL NOT CHASE THE SHORT AT THIS LEVEL.
The Notes trigger short for us. We are keeping stops a little tight as rumors spread about the FED. Regardless of any rumors we will manage the trade like all others.
The Euro, like Gold, has been on a tear to the downside. We had a weekly signal fire off and we expect the Euro to continue down. However, one of our favorite reversal trades is setting up and we will take the long side for a QUICK TRADE. This will not be a trade we hold long and we will keep stops tight. If we get a bounce we will look for the trigger to...
We are in the Trigger Zone on the Notes and will be watching short term time frames for a trigger short. If we get the trigger then our final target will be a break of the lower wedge. REMEMBER: NO TRIGGER, NO TRADE!
Goldie is relentless to the downside and we are taking the Trigger Zone off. She has gone to far and now a snap back is possible. So we will wait to see if there a bounce before we setup a short trade for another leg down. We think Goldie is headed to $1,000 before shorts cover their positions. Stay tuned.
We didn't see this big of a move coming. We saw the break but expected a quick return to the wedge after getting more people short. It looks like they will squeeze Venezuela and Russia further with lower prices. August lows are a stones throw away. We will "nibble" short if we get a bounce. It will be with small size and tight stops. It won't take much to...