It is quite interesting to learn on own experience how bullishness in media grows exponentially towards the end of a trend. Gold is the perfect example nowadays. Media is boiling with new extreme forecasts issuing every day: $1,900, $2,000 even $3,000 per oz. Youtube analysts say that hedge fund managers keep increasing their net long positions even while price is...
Previous forecast based on an assumption that we are in wave C of running flat has been invalidated since assumed wave 4 has touched wave 1. Also it is clear that correction is not yet over. First wave down (yellow ellipse) has 3 wave structure, so we should expect the correction to form a flat 3-3-5. So the last wave should have 5 wave structure with condition...
Now back to 1460 , pool-back and finally to 1440-1420
Having some free time, I decided to post very low-level projection (covering only 1 day, next Monday) for Silver market just for the sake to illustrate predictive power of Elliott Waves. Even though it is more for the entertaining purpose (of an Elliott Wave evangelist), it provides an opportunity to ride 2% move. As explained in my related post “Opportunity to...
Big picture: • market is correcting complete 5 waves started in May • First corrective wave A has 5 wave structure therefore zig-zag form of the correction structure is the most appropriate here, also taking explosive structure of the up-trend and in particular wave 5, which should be corrected in full as per Elliott Wave standards. • Corrective A and B waves...
So far so good. Next stop around 1463, then will most likely bounce back to touch the low of the previous range ~1480.
Wave C will be complete ~1536, then massive sell off to start with target ~1420
Weekly wave count (blue): we are in wave (C) of A-B-C which should form 5 waves with target ~65-66 which is 0.61 of wave (A) extension from the end of (B). Down trend line of blue (B) has been penetrated on Thursday, day closure above it will confirm the uptrend. Daily wave count: Wave 1 formed in the first half of August. Since then it was ranged about but left...
RSI divergence supports the idea of completion of the trend started in May. 5th wave usually diverges with RSI. The price will be correcting to towards the other side of the Elliott wave channel with potential target near end of wave 4, around $1400. Oil is in 3rd of 3rd wave up so will be rising very quick, the first target for WTI is ~$63. Stock market most...
The final wave 5 is underway with ultimate target ~$19. Target is calculates as 0.61 extension of distance between 0 and end of wave 3 measured from the end wave 4. In daily wave count (pink) the target is ~$18.97. in 4h wave count the target is ~$19. Invalidation level 17.8 - top of wave 4 in 4h wave count. Seems that 1 leg up has been already formed on...
It is in wave 3 of iii of C with an ultimate target in 1.2280 - 1.2350 zone. Motive wave down was very powerful without any significant replacements, this probably will lead to sharp and extended correction So expect the wave v of the currently developing C to look scary powerful.
I decided to review big picture on this market and found it interesting and very clear in particular after applying some techniques from Neo-waver theory helping with wave starting point identification. Sorry for posting daily chart which looks a bit messy, but tradingview allows you to scroll it what is very handy this this situation since this lets you see the...
Because May 9 low has been touched from below on July 1 the assumption for incomplete motive (5-wave) down has been invalidated. Most likely large move down initiated in April is complete 3-wave. Strong wave up started in July seems like a first leg of zig-zag. This week 3-wave correction down has formed and ... now it is very probable a new 5-wave upward will...
In the large time-frame the marker direction is obviously down. The second motive wave, i.e. wave (iii) which lasted more than 2 weeks is complete, now the market is in correction stage forming wave (iv) which should ideally last a week or two. It has corrected ~25% of (iii) in a shape of 5 waves, that actually means the most likely scenario for the wave (iv) is...
Waves 1 and 3 are complete. Wave 4 seems to be complete and now it will fly up to 75.5 Invalidation level 72.2