JazzForex

JazzForex

The less dovish than expected tone from the RBA last week, stating the exchange rate was still overvalued but failing to give any mention of a time scale for further rate cuts, made me less bearish than I was on this pair. On top of that, the FOMC minutes highlighted concerns about hiking interest rates too soon, creating some buying pressure. Last week was...

JazzForex

This pair has been ranging in a 145 pip wide bullish parallel channel on the 30M for the last 9 days. Both the upper and the lower channel line have been tested 4 times and have proven their strength. It pushed up 100 pips last Friday, on the back of downbeat Canadian retail sales data (the largest one-month decline since April 2010) and a favourable US...

JazzForex

There is plenty of news coming out today on the €, with several pmi´s and updates on the Greek debt negotiations hitting the wires. Greece no doubt will have the biggest impact here and a resolution should be imminent. I must say I am somewhat surprised to see this pair has held up the way it did. Zooming out a bit, we can see that since the beginning of February,...

JazzForex

Well to say this has been a choppy week for the euro pairs would be somewhat of an understatement. With the soap opera that is the Greek extension negotiations in full swing and news hitting the wires constantly. With the SNB rumoured to be intervening in the currency market again. And with the ECB minutes showing the consensus was that conducting QE was the only...

JazzForex

There are several things you can do to prepare and condition yourself mentally to get trading emotions under control and to stay focused on simply making one good trade after another. This topic is about one of those things you can do. Its not the most important thing, nor is it the only thing. But it is the most fun thing. I talk about food for the soul. I talk...

JazzForex

A favourable German GDP and Eurozone GDP came out on Friday and there also was some optimism Greece would reach a deal with its creditors next week. This normally should have supported the euro throughout the day, but the market reaction was muted and even somewhat to the downside. The Japanese GDP report Sunday night and the Eurogroup meeting on Monday will give...

JazzForex

I remain fundamentally bearish on this pair, given the rate divergence with the FED (RBA cut its rate recently and might cut again this year while FED is expected to hike it around the summer). The RBA price target for this pair is 0,7500 (some 250 pips lower than the current price). Recent commentary by governor Stevens was less dovish than expected which led to...

JazzForex

As we all know, when we open a trade, there is no guarantee it will be a winner. Given the win rate of a certain trading strategy, there is a random distribution between wins and losses. We trade to make money over a larger number of trades, not to win every individual trade, which would simply be unrealistic. That is why it’s important to be confident when we...

JazzForex

Despite weaker than expected UK manufacturing production and industrial production data that came out yesterday and ahead of the BoE inflation report tomorrow morning, this pair is making some gains the last 2 days and is fighting against the downtrend on the daily. The BoE are expected to downgrade their cpi forecast for this year, making a rate hike increasingly...

JazzForex

I remain fundamentally bearish on this pair, given the rate divergence with the FED (RBA cut its rate recently while FED is expected to hike it around the summer). Add to that the positive US jobs report last Friday and falling Chinese imports that are weighing on AUD and we should be seeing sustained selling pressure on this pair. In the trade idea linked under...

JazzForex

This pair fell sharply on Friday on the back of a strong US jobs report with a higher than expected non-farm payroll number (257K) and a favourable wage gain percentage (0.5%). Because of this strength in the US labour market, the USD immediately became bullish, creating enough selling pressure to make this pair lose 145 pips. The diverging economies as well as...

JazzForex

The USD gained in strength last Friday after a favourable jobs report. The CAD data has also been good the last few days and they sure beat expectations Friday with their employment data. But appreciation of the USD on the back of their jobs report proved too strong for the CAD and this pair gained 165 pips before giving 35 back before market close. The Canadian...

JazzForex

This continuation play is somewhat related (call it the prelude) to the trade idea linked under "Related Ideas". After the strong US jobs report on Friday, this pair became instantly bullish and gained 185 pips. We now have a bullish rectangle developing on the hourly, which could serve as an entry pattern for a continuation of the trend. Inside the rectangle...

JazzForex

This pair rose strongly after a higher than expected non-farm payroll number came out (257K) together with a favourable wage gain percentage (0.5%). Because of this strength in US the labour market, the USD immediately became bullish, driving USDJPY up 185 pips. This moved the price of this pair above the B point of a potential bearish Gartley on the 4H and now...

JazzForex

Last night the RBA cut their growth estimate to 1.75%. After having recently cut their rate to 2.25%, this should be enough to weaken the AUD, creating selling pressure on this pair. My fundamental bias on AUDUSD is therefore bearish. If on top of that the NFP would come out favourable today, there would be one more reason to look to sell it. As always, I want to...

JazzForex

I personally follow 4 central banks in detail: FED (USD), ECB (EUR), BoJ (JPY) and BoE (GBP). Knowing the monetary policies of these banks and how they differ, helps me in trading the following 6 major pairs: EU, GU, UJ, EJ, EG and GJ. I also follow three other central banks, be it more at a distance and with less detail: SNB, RBA and BoC. The banks to follow...

JazzForex

This pair lost 134 pips last Friday, with bad cpi data coming out and uncertainty about the Greek debt negotiations weighing on this pair. JPY, despite its weakening, is still seen as a safe haven currency, which means it is bought at moments of uncertainty. The currency pair traded most of last week in a sideways channel on the hourly and is currently testing its...

JazzForex

The BoE will announce their interest rate decision on Thursday but a hike is not expected for now, with inflation well below its target and the committee standing at 9-0 on a “no hike”. The FED on the other hand stated last week that the timeline of any rate increase would depend on economic data. This was widely seen as somewhat hawkish and a rate hike by the FED...