GBP/USD: Short-lived reaction after better-than-expected UK GDP data Macroeconomic overview The British economy advanced 0.7% on quarter in the three months to December of 2016, following a 0.6% expansion in the previous period and above the preliminary estimate of 0.6%. It was the highest figure in one year, as exports and government spending rebounded while...
EUR/USD: Investors shrugged off Eurozone data, eyes on FOMC minutes today Macroeconomic overview U.S. Federal Reserve meeting minutes due later on Wednesday could either reinforce or undermine recent hawkish comments from central bank policy makers that have raised bets on a rise in rates as early as next month. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said on...
Macroeconomic overview Bank of England Governor Mark Carney was challenged by lawmakers on Tuesday over the central bank's decision to alter a fundamental assumption that helps it to justify keeping interest rates at a record low. The BoE said earlier this month it believed Britain's unemployment rate could fall to 4.5% - down from a previous estimate of 5% -...
Macroeconomic overview Minutes of its February meeting showed the Reserve Bank of Australia was in an optimistic mood when it kept rates at a record low of 1.5% for a seventh straight month, following easings in August and May last year. Economic growth was expected to pick up to 3% by year-end and a shock contraction in the third quarter was only due to...
Macroeconomic overview Japan's exports rose in January at a slower pace than the previous month due to a decline in shipments to the U.S. and the Lunar New Year holidays. The trade balance came to a deficit of JPY 1.09 trillion vs. the median estimate for a JPY 636.8 billion deficit. Exports in January rose 1.3% from the same period a year ago, less than the...
Macroeconomic overview Two hard-left candidates said on Friday they were discussing cooperation in their bid for the French presidency, jolting investors already nervous over the possibility of a win for far-right candidate Marine Le Pen. Socialist party officials and pollsters said cooperation between Benoit Hamon and Jean-Luc Melenchon was very unlikely, due...
EUR/USD: Technical analysis suggests recovery, long at 1.0600 Macroeconomic overview U.S. retail sales rose more than expected in January and consumer prices recorded their biggest gain in nearly four years, boosting prospects of an interest rate increase from the Federal Reserve next month. The Commerce Department said retail sales increased 0.4% last month,...
USD/JPY: Yellen supported USD/JPY bulls Macroeconomic overview Fed Chair Janet Yellen said delaying rate increases could leave the Fed's policymaking committee behind the curve and eventually lead it to hike rates quickly, which she said could cause a recession. Yellen did not say if Fed policymakers expected the economy would warrant three interest rate...
GBP/USD: Long for 1.2700, Yellen in the limelight Macroeconomic overview British consumer prices rose 1.8% yoy, slightly below expectations for a 1.9% rise. The Bank of England forecast earlier this month that inflation will rise above 2.7% in around a year's time as Britain's vote to leave the European Union pushes up the cost of imports. Excluding oil prices...
Macroeconomic overview Canada added 48.3k jobs last month, exceeding market expectations for employment growth to be unchanged. Full-time positions increased by 15.8k. Although that was outpaced by a 32.4k increase in part-time work, investors were encouraged by the decline in the unemployment rate to 6.8%, even as the participation rate edged up. The service...
USD/JPY: Japanese growth slightly below expectations, eyes on Yellen now Japan's economy grew at an annualised rate of 1.0% in October-December, posting a fourth straight quarter of expansion, led by solid exports and firmer capital expenditure. The preliminary reading for fourth-quarter GDP compared with the median estimate of 1.1% growth. It followed a revised...
NZD/USD: RBNZ keeps rates steady and issues a dovish statement Macroeconomic overview The Reserve Bank of New Zealand held the official cash rate steady at 1.75%. RBNZ Governor Graeme Wheeler warned the "protectionist risk" posed by the Trump administration is a major hazard. "The biggest risk I think is the protectionist risk," Wheeler told reporters at a press...
Macroeconomic overview The CAD hit its weakest close in more than two weeks against a broadly higher USD after hawkish speech from Fed’s Harker. The CAD was also hurt by falling oil prices and concern about some details of a trade surplus report weighing. The CAD suffered as investors reassessed the prospect of a faster pace to U.S. interest rate hikes after...
Macroeconomic overview Gold hit a new three-month high today, as political uncertainty in the United States stoked safe-haven demand. Given the absence of significant data this week, the market's attention is on politics. Controversy over Trump's temporary travel ban on people from seven Muslim-majority countries has boosted appetite for bullion as a safe-haven...
Macroeconomic overview Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker said he would be open to raising interest rates again at the U.S. central bank's March meeting if growth in jobs and wages continues. Harker, one of ten voters this year on the Fed's rate-setting panel, said that to support a rate hike he would need to see further GDP growth and...
Macroeconomic overview Nonfarm payrolls increased by 227k jobs in January, the largest gain in four months, the Labor Department said on Friday. The unemployment rate, however, rose one-tenth of a percentage point to 4.8% and wages increased by only three cents, suggesting that there was still some slack in the labor market. Still, the labor market is tightening...
Macroeconomic overview The global financial crisis has left the Canadian economy with persistent excess capacity, Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz said on Tuesday, adding that geopolitical risk and uncertainty make it harder to know if policy is on track. In a speech focused on the strengths and weaknesses of the bank's economic modeling over the years, Poloz...
Macroeconomic overview A senior trade adviser to the president Donald Trump, Peter Navarro, said the euro was "grossly undervalued". Navarro's comments were followed by Trump himself, who complained that "every other country lives on devaluation" while the United States "sit(s) there like a bunch of dummies". As we expected and highlighted many times in our...