Selling some into this apparent wave 5 move. Expect this is only the first wave of a larger wave 5
Silver's strong performance this week triggers the Wilder's parabolic indicator signal. As price breaks through the upper resistance marker, one would buy at this point. In future periods, the dotted line will shift from the upper range of prices to the lower. One would stay long until the bottom signal is breached. My first target remains 19.54 however, I...
As SLV starts to rally and quickly becomes overbought due to recent low volatility, A good indicator to watch now is the BBW. I track it in Excel with the formula stdev(range). As this indicator continues to expand, it shows me that price is moving away from the moving average at a pace quicker than the moving average is rising. As long as this indicator is...
As news that the Fed will be injecting hundreds of billions more dollars into the repo market, one has to expect that an increase of the money supply surely needs to affect the price of precious metals. But looking at a comparison of SLV and the dollar show that overall, Silver and the dollar appear to be very correlated. From time to time, I look at the numbers...
Had anticipated one more move down and this needs to be it as we rapidly approach the top of Wave 1. A breach of Wave 1, in Elliott Wave theory, would negate the assumed bull move.
For a long time now, I had wondered if the apparent wave 4 needs to be as long as a wave 2. Wave 2 ran from Feb 20 to May 28, 67 trading days. Our recent wave 3 high marked on Sep 4. We are now 64 days into this correction. We should be close to an end. 67 days hits on Monday. Can't wait to see an impulsive wave. These constant smack downs have made me lose...
Silver's apparent wave 4 correction has been long and boring. Might be one down draft left still. Looking at a weekly line chart and parallel channels, it's quite possible that we hit 15.42 on some weekly close in the very near future. If the channel holds, we may begin wave 5. If the channel doesn't hold, then back to the drawing board.
On adage that I have followed for years is if you can buy at or below a rising trend, then over time, you can profit. SLV is at that point now, the 20 week moving average is rising. This moving average is rising 9 cents a week or in other terms, better than 0.5% per week. For those who are longer term bullish on silver, this is a good place to place or add to a...
While my initial price target for SLV is around 19.55 for the current move, Fibonacci retracement lines show that even if we remain in a major bear market for silver, a 50% correction from the major down move can be expected.
As mentioned in previous posts, I have been in the process of rolling out my option position to 2021. As I have been adding, this is an opportunity to take a little bit off of the table from the 2020 position. Sold just enough at this point to cover the cost of my 2021 purchases made during the past couple of weeks.
SLV continues it's sideways action thus far continuing in what appears to be a standard wave 4 correction prior to rallying into wave 5. The indicators shown seem to confirm that this is at best the wave 4 correction and the established channel indicates further possible drift until the end of the year. The spike that occurred this week was quickly sold but it...
Along this channel, SLV can find itself at 22-26 by Jan 2021 option expiration date. Those call spreads are at $032 now. I did 20-25s at $0.51. At the 22 lower channel line, that's still at 4:1 play. Of course, options trading is risky and not appropriate for everyone. But for me, a good time to continue adding to the 2021 position in light of my earlier post.
Strong Headwinds of higher interest rates and the potential China trade deal kept pressure on SLV this week. The correction continues and can continue to drift to the moving average. Still, the longer term outlook remains positive as prices continue to hold the 50% retracement level. The next target remains the 1.23% Fibonacci level close to 20.
If SLV closes at 16.30 or better today, could be off to the races tomorrow. Today's low is a penny above Monday's so thinking that we will hold here and begin impulsing higher tomorrow.
On the short term, it appears that SLV has completed wave 4 and is now starting on Wave 5. With the Fed announcing what amounts to QE4, precious metals rallied higher however there is still overhead resistance. While lower prices to the lower channel line would be temporarily disappointing, it would be a great opportunity to "load up" on cheap calls. Following...
Long term projection. Perhaps more profitable yield curve could trigger the move.
One can never really tell how elaborate corrective actions can be but it does appear that an impulsive move up may be what's coming next. The next major price target is the previous major high around 19.77. It's possible however that this target might not be hit until early next year. With that timeline in mind, I have been adding to 2021 LEAP call positions on...