Just a reminder that HSI has been range-bound since 1997. It has ridden above the top end of the range twice, but both times (2008, and 2018) it reverted back. If it proceeds to draw down excessively from here, it'll be the second crash from elevated levels. The smallest drawdown has been 36%. Also worth mentioning is that each time the HSI has drawn down, it...
Extrapolating the trends in the 10-2 yield curve shows an inversion between 9/1/2018 and 8/1/2019.
USD HKD had almost zero correlation prior to 2017. After 2017, the correlation between the two currencies is almost a perfect inverse of each other. Note that the dollar started to rise the second USDHKD hit the upper bound of the peg.
Note that the rise in the dollar started on April 18, the same day that the HKMA seemed to defend the peg in a very enormous way. This indicates to me that this rise in $DXY is not a short squeeze, and more of a fundamental issue caused by need for dollar funding.