FangTrades

FangTrades

I know it's ridiculous speculating 4 years out but I figured I might as well chart it out We've been building a massive pennant since the 2017 bull run high. So, taking the extension and combining with my time cycle analysis, BTC 400k in 2023-2024? (See the Link to Related Ideas for my time cycle analysis)

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The recent $SPX dump was surprisingly efficient. Not visible on the 1H but if you zoom in on the 15m, every little crevice has been filled If my theory is correct then we shouldn't see a retrace

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In addition to a gap fill + supply tap, the pump here was inefficient (even considering the LTFs). This does not look like a sustained rally to me. Decent place to short but I already got plenty of exposure from my existing swing and BTC positions

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Convex highs and lows on the daily, losing downward momentum. Maybe one or two more mini alt seasons, then a slow bleed on all alts.

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Looks great on the HTFs, but we need to dump to least 255 first. Reaching 255 fills a gap and taps demand; it's a decent probability area for a rally up to the 600s sometime in 2021, if BTC allows it. Otherwise, next logical reversal area is 180-150.

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EURUSD price inefficiencies, 2000-2020 Similarities with 2006-2010: - Two created+filled - HL formed - Partial fill forms a LH We got a 6 month dollar rally last time. So, strong dollar until March 2021? 1.093 is logical target for me Hi-res chart:

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Full notes on chart.

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Gameplan valid as long as BTC remains below 12.1k. 1D IF we reclaim below range high @ 10.6k, imo tapping demand at 9.6k is imminent, and we will have a bullish and bearish case, both marked on chart: - Bullish case (green): Demand holds, bullish MS preserved, consolidate then mark up to new highs - Bearish case (red): Demand doesn't hold, liquidity below...

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XAUEUR doesn't look as bearish as the XAUAUD pair

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After we take out the swing high, there's a cascade of ascending swing lows below that I expect to gradually get run through.

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Discretionary short AUDJPY - Concavity - Adam & Eve - Sweep of two key highs and reclaim - RSI Bear div - Unswept ascending lows below

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Rough sketch of expectations. I'd be looking for a break in market structure + retrace or a sweep + reclaim of a range high to enter. Thesis invalidated if red tangent line is broken.

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Beautiful concave up arc. Let's see if we get a break in market structure that would set up a reversal short.

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The PA has been quite clean. Expecting something roughly like this

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Everyone and their grandmother wants to go mega long above 10.6k. This seems like the maximum pain scenario to me. Simplified: Full detail:

FangTrades Updated 

This BTC PA is rare, but: - Consolidation below then reclaim of major swing H/L on the daily = Bullish! Last time, we got our small bull run up to 10.6k. - 90º Concave Down arc = Bullish!