Vindication! After some decent calls over the past couple weeks (Top, Triangle break) we've finally managed to action one and make some money. Pair has made a dramatic turn lower from below former support/M/Triple Top conf. line and looks set to continue lower. Initial support is 1.0547 followed by 1.0519 and 1.0460. Alternatively, a reversal back above former...
Pair caught us off guard (once again - joys of trading/working part time!) and broke out of the ST channel correcting up to former support/M/Triple top conf level. Not Ideal but we have shorted at market with a stop above there targeting below parity. Will likely add to a break south.
$EURUSD is turning lower from the short term channel top. We were hoping for a break above, correction to former support/conf. level 1.0720 but this is looking less and less likely. Looking to short break below multi year low.
$EURUSD Has broken below the ascending triangle bottom and looks set to break through the Double/Triple Top confirmation level 1.0720 (4h close). Another possibility is a rally off this level and a retest of 1.050 but we think this Triple/Quad Top/Double Bottom scenario is less probable. Look to sell any rallies into the broken triangle bottom or LT channel top.
$EURUSD is trading within an ascending triangle (bullish). Regardless, Friday's rally stopped well short of resistance and Monday's gap higher was also futile. We are still calling for bearish continuation but expect a correction to the triangle bottom at the very least. Bullish fundamentals are lacking - shorts valid against triangle top/1.1051.
Pair appears to have carved a higher low above the 61.8% retracement of 1.04568 to 1.10511, invalidating our bearish bias. Pair may well still turn lower and break south but we holding flat as high risk of bounce (protect your profits!).
$EURUSD Appears to have failed below the #FOMC high, carving a lower high around 1.0950. Shorts valid with stops above swing high, targeting the bottom (1:2.5 Risk:Reward), continuation. Stop should be trailed if aiming for continuation.
$AUDUSD Has broken through trendline support and looks set to take out the 2015/Multi-Year lows later today. Holding short from .7714, 7691. Break lower targets channel bottom.
$AUDUSD is actively testing trendline support and will likely break lower over the next few hours. Break lower targets the channel bottom which comes in at .7405 this week and .7290 the next. Short from .7703 w/ break even stop. Shorts valid with TIGHT stops or look to sell strength against channel top. Break above channel top invalidates.
The Euro was killed this week as the ECB announced details of their quantitative easing program and US employment data surprised to the upside. $EURUSD broke below the 61.8 Fib and looks set to test the 76.4 Fib/Channel Bottom/Parity over coming months. Holding short from 1.1011/Selling strength. Reversal above 61.8 invalidates.
$USDJPY has rallied off the 50% fib as predicted. An impressive NFP print on Friday gave the pair the much needed fuel to break out of wedge consolidation and take out the 2015 high. Breakout targets multi-year high at 121.838 - Bullish above 119.81 (Pre-NFP low).
$USDJPY appears to be well supported above 50% of 115.82 to 120.47 (118.14). Pair recently carved a higher low above 118.40 but highs remain capped under 23.6% (119.37). See break above 23.6 next week, continuation. Longs valid with stops below 50% or 118.40 (depending on your risk tolerance/trading style).