There seems to be a pattern here. When a strong sell signal is followed by a buy signal, there are strong gains over the next few weeks. Also notice the Supertrend buy signals on 6/23 and 10/12. 6/23 was followed by a loss of ~15% followed by a 100% gain. 10/12 has now also lost ~15%.
I'm no EW expert, just a rough sketch of what could happen. The market has been very volatile lately; but I'm feeling Bullish on the possibility of a huge stimulus if Dems win the Senate and POTUS. This could be hampered by delayed election results and Trump going crazy, but it should make for some interesting spreads. The Green line is a mid-point of the long...
Gold all in my chain, Gold all in my watch, Don't b'leed me just watch Buy the fear
This is an update to the Island Gap post. I attempted to plot a path to meet my target. I used a rough timeline of events and hypothetical sentiments in the week ahead. Should the house fail to pass a much lower stimulus bill by Friday, I expect a limit down event this week, or early next. These things are very hard to predict, so take it with a grain of salt; but...
This is a worst case scenario, where the debates go horribly and no stimulus is passed this week. The markets gaped up in futures and was choppy all day. 11500 is the next big resistance, which will give way easy if a stimulus is passed, but that's doubtful.
Updated the path for the July 6 crash prediction. Just touched ATHs again and sold off rapidly, making a double top. Nothing in the news looks good for the future, or having a vaccine ready even 12 months from now. All of this buying is hubris in my opinion and a lot of trained BTD bulls are buying into the weakness at an alarming rate. The losses from 2009 will...
I have a feeling Bulls are just making things worse for themselves buying into this weakness.
The bottom might not last long, but should be a steeper sell off at open than yesterday confirming the bull trap pattern
It's too perfect, almost
I mean identical
Looks like a channel developing for the day; SPY P/C ratio went from 1.73 to 1.74 since Friday, COE Equities P/C jumped from .47 to .74, similar move as March 3rd
I've been asked for charting tips. I'm still learning, but I'll explain what I saw; and the factors I considered. First off, I studied candlestick patterns at length. I compared the similar bear/bull patterns that often get mistaken for each other and noted the differences. Like some people can't tell between a bear flag and a bull flag forming. A big clue is the...
This is the general clashing of the trends I'm seeing; which is causing extreme volatility. The megaphone, horn effect on the prices is an indication that the bear trend is stronger. It's going to pull us into the new trend's channel.
I knew I was on to something after I called the triple top and it followed suit with the long term bear trend I noticed. It started bouncing around in my channels and ranges as expected, so I drew a plot for shits and giggles. Damn if it didn't start following my plots as I drew them! Went to sleep and it followed everything perfectly for almost a whole day! It...
I was right about the last theory, so I'm expanding on it. The MAs don't lie. Today had all the markings of a Bull Trap; and may continue tomorrow, though I'm hoping for the sell off tonight. By Monday 7/6 we should be near a bottom support. The 12yr Bull trend broke above it's channel's resistance; which has always resulted in a major sell-off. The new long-term...
Just a wild guess here bouncing around channels and trends given the grim outlook. World tensions and protectionist policies unfolding are really starting to make this look like the 1920's/30's. Thick red line at bottom is absolute Japan Zombie company level. Today and maybe Friday seem like a Bull Trap before another leg down; or perhaps the big crash is delayed...