The S&P 500 was weak during Asia Europe and most of the US session but the glimmer of hope of getting the debt limit agreement short-term agreement to increase the bar limits things to have stimulated the market and eased some of the tension. However, we have employment numbers over the next couple days and it is 50-50 in terms of market reaction. My bias is still...
Ideally if buyers are here, we want to see follow through with a close above 4375. We still have fundamental issues out there that the market needs to overcome such as the debt ceiling and employment data later in the week in addition to resistance levels at 4365 and 4370.
Monday selling took back the buyers price gains on Friday. Asia was a little higher but the weakness started in that session. The market broke in the US session. There are a lot of fundamentals coming out this week but I'm looking for a rest day and inside day for Tuesday's price action.
The buying that we saw occurring on Friday could be a result of sellers buying the take profits or the market getting cheap enough that it becomes attractive to buyers to enter the market. Monday's price action will give us clues about which dynamic is driving this market. This is a structure where you would want to see the Asia session starting at 5 o'clock...
In Wednesday's video, I said sellers should be cautious going into Thursday's session. Sellers remained in control as the market pushed to new lows. Inflation fears, fiscal and monetary policy, regulations in China and an ongoing pandemic may all be coming together to put some downward pressure on the stock market. All of these are known issues and nothing is...
On Wednesday the S&P got stronger before it got weaker resulting in a close near its open. This type of structure implies the possibility of an inside type day or a sideways type market. It's also important to be cautious on the short side of the S&P 500. If the market trades above Wednesday's high look for close near 4400 and a stronger close on Friday. The S&P...
After the surprise large-size of the downward movement on Tuesday for the S&P, I do not look for a repeat of that action on Wednesday. Unchanged and possibly higher within the Tuesdays range would be the expectation for the S&P. I am not looking for further movement to the downside because I do not think there are currently fundamental reasons that would warn...
Asia provided follow-through to the upside in the S&P on Monday. During the European session the market got weaker and a continued in the US session until the last few hours were the market went sideways. The price action for Monday is bearish. However, with the bouncing this that we saw on Friday, I do not look for a big move lower. If sellers are here, Tuesday...
I was looking for new highs on Friday and the S&P. Instead overnight sellers came into that market and drove prices lower. However, buyers returned as we went into the close. This implies some of the selling that was shown could be profitaking before the weekend. Mondays price action will give us clues to the answer to that issue. I am looking for buyers to...
The S&P 500 market acted very confidently in the Thursday trading session. Beginning with the opening of the Asia session which put in the low for the entire day. It was the right level of commitment at the right time in that price structure. I also look for Asia to put in the low today but it's also going to be important to see what Europe brings to the US market...
EverGrande said they would make an interest rate payment which increased the markets comfort. The Fed said they could increase rates 6 or 7 times by the end 2024. By the end of this year they may begin tapering if the economy continues to strengthen. The projecting inflation PCE to 4.2% this year and they expect inflation to decrease to 2.2% in 2022. In other...
My expectation was for continuation to the upside in the S&P 500. The session did start moving higher but failed to closed with a strong level of conviction as the market backed off of the high level. The main focus will be on any change in Fed policy. I don't see any reason for the Fed to change the policy at this point. My bias for this market is still for move...
I was not expecting the break to the lower levels on the S&P for Monday. Because it was the market reacting to a possible outcome in China for real estate development firm, I do not look for long-lasting impact. Price will dictate what we do but I am looking for a market that's gotten low enough to find buyers and I'm looking for follow-through to higher levels on Tuesday.
I was looking for buyers to return to the market on Friday but this is not what happened is sellers drove the market lower. However, be cautious on the short side for this market because of the size of the move and the levels that it's currently trading. This price action does not necessarily mean a big down day on Monday.
We had interesting fundamentals coming out on Thursday. The main thing was the stronger retail sales which implies consumers are spending money. Consumer spending is 70% of our GDP so it becomes an important parameter for overall economic growth. Thursday's action was weaker but a rally occurred later in the session and closed off of it lows. Buyers returned...
Wednesday buyers did return to the S&P 500. The key will be its follow-through to the upside over the next 2 days. Ideally we want to see the S&P 500 closing above 4500 by the close of Friday. This would imply confidence as we would go into the weekend.
As I discussed in the video, early indicators are that inflammation may indeed be transitory. A possible low for September 15 could be made in the Asia session seen as the last candle on the chart in the video. There does not appear to be strong economic evidence for sustained move to the downside. It is more the perception of the market on what may happen and not...
Although buyers retreated after coming into the S&P market, I am looking for them to return on Tuesday. Be cautious on the short side of this market. We have a transitional pattern setting up and we need to pay attention to the price action associated with it as I discussed in the video.